Family Final Four in Survivor Speculation Forum

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Family Final Four

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Phoenix1269		#1541	[-]
Posts: 1177 (09/23/11 10:42 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Join forum supporters Remove this ad birdlady wrote: F M Dawn S Ozzy, Jim, Keith D ?Elyse, ?Whitney E Cochran, Papa Bear Yeah, red tribe intentionally forming a Peter Pan alliance, which we know is doomed. (Or at least the men have that alliance intent - we didn't really hear from any of the women.) If Dawn makes it to the merge, it will be Come to mama from both tribes. I wonder if this will turn into a single parent season again. Real-life Dawn has experience with many children from different backgrounds... if she does make it to the merge, i suspect she will be a force to be reckoned with.
Lady V		#1542	[-]
Posts: 821 (09/23/11 11:25 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I'm so exhausted tonight but can't resist responding to Phoenix's question about Es.... RUPERT... ;) (more later and waving limply to everyone!!!)
fat little fingers		#1543	[-]
Posts: 6934 (09/26/11 06:27 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Yeah, I'm pretty thrashed myself, LV. Phoenix: I think both Ozzy and Coach are E's... even though the edit has shown them "tamer"... that e-ness will start to shine thru won't it? This is the big question about Coach for me. This season he is definitely stepping into the Father role and if he fails, I don't see how he can suddenly become an E. He will simply fail as Father and lose. But, if he keeps up his successful leadership ways, he could go all the way. As soon as we see the old Coach start to show up, we'll know he's lost both his Upolu family and the game. Sophie told us in Ep1 that he likes to show off and he demonstrated that at the ep2 TC. Maybe the old Coach is already with us. If there's an E on Upolu, I'd guess it was Rick, who seems to be a loyal and quiet alliance member. Last Edited By: fat little fingers 09/28/11 09:16 AM. Edited 1 times.
birdlady		#1544	[-]
Posts: 4424 (09/29/11 01:49 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Did we learn anything last night? It feels like there's an awful lot about the women on both tribes that the editors aren't showing us. Red tribe seems pretty stable. Ozzy and Dawn have some sort of relationship to make the tribe work without an F. Cochran knows he's different, but doesn't seem to know that he can nonetheless fit into the structure. (Who's the youngest successful E, btw? Do E's need to have some awareness of the family, even if they aren't going to fill a nuclear role?) F M Dawn S Ozzy, Jim, Keith D Elyse, Whitney E Cochran Ben is bad F, seems to think if a shark swims into the net while they're at a challenge, he has fulfilled his provider duties. Whoever might be a little M is absent in terms of nurturing or other M functions. Brandon terrible S. Even the alliance subgroupings are disfunctional. Non-disfunctional tribemembers all seem content to wait it out. Will increasing stress force them into more familial subgroups? Or random fractures and boots? F Ben M ?Edna, ?Stacey S Albert, Brandon, Rick, ?Sophie D Mikayla E
Lady V		#1545	[-]
Posts: 822 (10/03/11 12:57 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Hey, Birdlady, Beefcake, Phoenix, Tyran Amiros, FLF, and newcomers! Greetings!! :) Now, I have to agree with FLF on Coach. I just don't see him as very E this season at all. He's doing the F things; I haven't been watching to see if he's providing food, but he's offered many protective comments, he seems to use "we" a lot, he seems to be thinking of the tribe as a whole and its well-being, and he's relating to members as family members, particularly "young buck" Brandon, the rebellious teen who's trying to be good, but just can't help being bad...] Agree with birdlady about Dawn. A little more Mness this last ep, although otherwise, not much in the last ep of FF4 interest we hadn't already seen. I do think Edna is the mom on Coach's tribe, and we should be seeing more Mness soon. I really feel Ozzy is a S. He's approaching his role more as the eldest S in a single parent (or no parent) family than as a F. FLF, I can't even remember who Rick is right now!! People who seem to be getting the most memorable face time include (for me): Ozzy, Keith, Cochran, Coach, Edna, Brandon, Mikayla: S, S, E?, F, M, S, D Last Edited By: Lady V 10/03/11 01:00 AM. Edited 1 times.
fat little fingers		#1546	[-]
Posts: 6945 (10/03/11 11:15 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	LV, yeah we don't have a lot to go on for some players, but that also defines their positions as well. Quiet edits either go to players who are minor Siblings, Es, or have failed to connect to the tribe in any way. Rick was shown as a member of the "Solid Five" alliance and so I give him the E role, since E is all about being a loyal and non-aggressive alliance member. (Women constantly get labelled coattail riders for doing what male Es do.) Edna in a way is more of an E as well, since she made an immediate decision to align with a "strong" male (Coach). Her relationship strategy is more "loyal one-on-one", rather than mixing in as part of a sibling social clique. She's their weakest physically and only has Coach to shield her. Cochran is my big FF4 mystery right now. His seeming only choice is the E position in the Family, the faithful genie who will do anything the tribe wants. But at this point he's supposedly outside the functioning alliance. If he gets into one, what will his role be?
birdlady		#1547	[-]
Posts: 4445 (10/06/11 06:26 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	No real new info. Dawn/Jim/Cochran needs a D, but may have to wait until after the merge. Ozzy/Elyse/Keith/Whitney need parents. F M Dawn S Ozzy, Jim, Keith D Elyse, Whitney E Cochran Benjamin is bad F. Really stood out how he just watched the challenge, while other watching players tried to support the people with weight. Albert (aka, the actual coach) right out at the end to reassure Stacey, not even an ally, but just some human empathy. Edna trying to act like a D but transparently bad at it. Brandon terrible S. Albert/Mikayla/Sophie seems solid (young F/D/S?), Benjamin/Brandon/Edna disfunctionally joined (bad F/weak M/invalid S). Can Rick be anyone's E? F Benjamin M ?Edna S Albert, Brandon, Rick, ?Sophie D Mikayla E
Beefcake		#1548	[-]
Posts: 11824 (10/06/11 07:41 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	The only thing that struck me this week is the possible emergence of a Jim/Dawn/Cochrane alliance. This might be a F-M-E alliance that could be stable if they can steal an S or D from Ozzy. The Brandon story has gone from lame to annoying. He is obviously a messed up kid, but I don't need to see that on my TV. He goes next or that tribe will implode.
Phoenix1269		#1549	[-]
Posts: 1216 (10/06/11 11:04 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Savaii F - Ozzy (failed father - he's providing, and leading from a "survival" POV, but he is not "protecting", but he does provide good challenge direction and he's creeping on one of the daughters - ewww) Jim (definitely steps up, has shown to be "protective" ie "saved" Cochran is E1. provides direction... his choices for the vote out are always adhered to, Haven't seen the providing aspect yet, but that may be because it is not necessary yet, although he does work around camp. Note who he is targeting... first he targets the provider but lazy father's 1st choice of companion, then he targets the stable, astute gay father, then he targets provider father's favorite daughter) M Dawn S Keith D Elyse, Whitney E/S? Cochran - I can see both with Cochran... sometimes he is very son like, but other times he is very E like. I remember this with Ozzy in Cook Islands, he was a little bit of both. Strongest Savaii Family - F/M/E (Jim/Dawn/Cochran) Weaker Savaii Family - F/S/D/D (Ozzy, Keith, Whitney, Elyse) If either F-Jim or M-Dawn were able to suck in D-Whitney and S-Keith to go against Lazy Father Ozzy, what a GREAT family UNIT they would be. And there is the potential if only someone can figure out that K/W know about Ozzy's idol. Upolu F Coach (I think Coach is a failed father too, he is scattered, not supportive and is letting his conflicted and wayward son run amok. I also don't see Coach providing nor does he do much work around camp. And he doesn't listen. He still seems E-ish to me. Especially with the awkward hug scene, and did you notice the emergence of the "warrior" speech at TC. I think Coach is slipping into Coach 1.0 again) M S Albert, Brandon D Mikayla ?Sophie E Rick, Edna I actually don't think Upolu has a mother... in fact they have voted off BOTH of the best potential mothers! Edna is not a mother, and is not a failed mother! She is socially awkward, and her whole strategy is to be the loyal vote for Coach. That is so E it's not even funny!! It's interesting that Coach seems to be threatened by strong M's. I think this is Rick's role also, although it is hard to tell since we haven't heard much from him. He must have done something terrible out there for the editors to ignore him this way! I am not sure about Sophie... she doesn't appear to fit any of the roles very well does she. She is not very mothering, nor is she very daughterly. I suppose she could be an E, but she doesn't seem very committed to that either. Perhaps she is a son as birdlady has suggested. This lack of role definition is definitely a bad thing for her chances though.
fat little fingers		#1550	[-]
Posts: 6957 (10/06/11 03:15 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Join forum supporters Remove this ad Episode 3 Savaii Father: I think Ozzy still fits the bill, even if we don't like what we see sometimes. He continues to insist that a strong,pre-merge tribe is "Survivor 101". He also continues to try and find use for Cochran, by agreeing that he may be a great asset on puzzles. He praised Dawn the week before for "kicking ass" at the IC. A Father doesn't have to be altruistic and nonstrategic. F has a right to play the game. But, Ozzy also talks and acts like a Son. He hits on the Daughters and he talks of Keith as a brother. Role confusion is ver-ry bad in FF4! Mother Dawn is liked by the tribe. She may be low on the totem pole, but appears to be camp mother nonetheless. Eccentric Cochran told everyone that his role would be "the genie" who would provide whatever they wanted or needed. It's an old E trick to try and fit in by playing obedient servant. That is very different from a Father provider like Ozzy and his fishing prowess. He can't be a true Son, because he self-identifies as not one of the beautiful people who can show their bodies (interestingly, a Dawn theme too), and the others consider him the entertaining misfit (a classic role for an E, look at Big Tom). The mystery of Cochran is that he is still trying to be a part of a functioning alliance. He, Dawn, (and before Papa Bear), and Jim are a "proto-alliance", but have not formalized a move or plan yet. They are incomplete. How can Cochran be an E and also someone who makes active strategy and leadership decisions? I'm not sure where his Family role is headed. Daughters Easy. Whitney and Elyse. 'nuff said... Sons Keith: Ozzy's bro. We know he fits easily in with the other "beautiful young people". He's in competition with Ozzy, which fits Ozzy being either Brother or Father. Jim: Too much the hustler and schemer to be an E. He's willing to look the team player with Ozzy and Keith, while squirming around with Cochran and Dawn. A hustling Son? A Cool Kids wannabe. He's close to being a confused role. But, for now he's the "least cool son". Upolu Father Coach: He is still the one who is guiding his tribe and holding it together. The others look to him for cues. I see him as headed for trouble with his old ideas and ways. The others will either meet disaster by following him or they will reject him as Father. If he fails as Father, he's finished. Mother I agree,any Mother possibility left with Christine and Stacey. But, they both probably had already failed as possible FF4 Mothers, since they seemed to be isolated from the start in a social group of two. Failed Mothers. Daughters Mikayla: A follower. Young and physically strong. Sophie: She acknowledged that Coach had experience that was useful for the tribe. She seems to appreciate talking stressful things out with him. Sons Albert: He's defended Father Coach at TC. He, like the others in the Five Alliance, seems to take his voting cues from Father. Brandon: Maybe the clearest Son this season. He wants to be like Father Coach and despairs at failing at it. Father Coach attempts to mentor Son Brandon. Like all Fathers, he hopes for his Son's eventual success, but worries about his failing. Father also is concerned that he may have to exercise tough love by throwing the Son out of the Home. Eccentric Edna: She's physically weak and vulnerable but she has a special protective arrangement with Father Coach for protection. She's outside the alliance, but has special status, because she is trusted by Father as someone loyal. Loyalty and special status with the leader is a very Eccentric position. She may annoy the others, but they will be surprised at how he will continue to try and protect her. If Coach is a successful Father he won't betray Edna until after the merge. If he betrays his Eccentric, I think it will mark the end of his chances at succeeding. Rick: It's the only role I can see him in. He's a loyal, passive alliance member. Not enough to go on for now. eta: fancy bullets, etc. Last Edited By: fat little fingers 10/06/11 03:24 PM. Edited 2 times.
tarheel66		#1551	[-]
Posts: 952 (10/06/11 05:32 PM) I'm with STUPID! Reply Quote More Recent Posts	fat little fingers wrote: eta: fancy bullets, etc. I expect a Powerpoint next time, slacker.
Lady V		#1552	[-]
Posts: 823 (10/06/11 11:22 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Anyone else getting a bunch of error messages at the top of the page? This is making me nervous. So I copied a whole bunch of messages off the thread, just in case. ;) FLF, great analysis. I see Coach in the same way--but I still see Ozzy as an S more than an F--a hopeful father, but not a failed father. He's just too son-like to me and very self-focused. He relates to the young men like bros, not like sons. Coach's single father tribe, Ozzy's single mother tribe... Hmmmm.... Kinda' like the Brady Bunch There is a lot of role confusion so far. And they are dropping like stones. Phoenix, I like your weaker/stronger Savaii subfamilies. Savaii M Dawn S Keith, Ozzy, Jim (eldest) D Elyse, Whitney E Cochran (if it doesn't get clear S vs. E purty soon, it doesn't bode well for him) Upolo F Coach S Albert, Brandon D Mikayla, Sophie (she is maybe an S; doesn't bode well) ? Rick (doesn't bode well) Anyone else we have disagreements about? Almost always those go before F8. We should be close to making our F8 predictions, as we are now at F13!
tarheel66		#1553	[-]
Posts: 957 (10/06/11 11:53 PM) I'm with STUPID! Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Hey there. I went to the first page to see if I could find an answer. Is the general take that an E is the kiss of death for winning?
birdlady		#1554	[-]
Posts: 4452 (10/07/11 07:55 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I expect a Powerpoint next time, slacker. With animation Coach's single father tribe, Ozzy's single mother tribe... Hmmmm.... Kinda' like the Brady Bunch From one of the web-only scenes, apparently that's how the blue tribe refer to Dawn - Mrs. Brady.
Tyran Amiros		#1555	[-]
Posts: 261 (10/07/11 11:47 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	tarheel66, it's true that an E has never won. It's an empirical observation based on the 20+ seasons of data, not a deductive claim, so it is possible that some day we will see an E emerge as winner. The logic of FF4, though, suggests that an E's primary strategic value is generally some type of blind loyalty to his or her alliance. If they're the pleasant sort of E (generally Bunnies from FBGB), they're easy to keep around and vote off at Final 5 or 4 (Big Tom or Rudy are the classic cases of this). If they're the nasty kind (Goats), they may be dragged into the F2 or F3 where they lose because they can't win the social vote (Russel Hantz). This season, I still think Cochran=S and Ozzy=E. Cochran's behavior and confessionals are about trying to prove himself and his value to the tribe--this attitude is very S. On the other hand, Ozzy is stuck in the position of having been virtually appointed by Probst as leader of the tribe, even though he's more comfortable in a less-responsible role. For me, eldest-son S's must want to take on that responsibility, not deny it, like I think Ozzy's doing. I think he's an E because he doesn't want the responsibility. Last Edited By: Tyran Amiros 10/07/11 03:58 PM. Edited 1 times.
tarheel66		#1556	[-]
Posts: 970 (10/07/11 02:54 PM) I'm with STUPID! Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Thanks! Just the FF4 logic background I was looking for. Oh yeah, sorry, but btw, FBGB?
birdlady		#1557	[-]
Posts: 4453 (10/07/11 03:24 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Fox, Bear, Goat, Bunny http://survivorsucks.yuku...r-the-Goat-and-the-Bunny
Lady V		#1558	[-]
Posts: 824 (10/08/11 02:07 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	birdlady wrote: Coach's single father tribe, Ozzy's single mother tribe... Hmmmm.... Kinda' like the Brady Bunch From one of the web-only scenes, apparently that's how the blue tribe refer to Dawn - Mrs. Brady. Wow! She does kinda' look like Mrs. B. We are getting a lot more Es lately than in the past -- entertainment value... Tyran Amiros, I believe Ozzy is too accepted and is sort of the core of the tribe--Es are never the true core of any tribe. I see your point about eldest sons wanting the responsibility; maybe he is better suited to a younger son position. Thoughts, everyone? eta: Tyran Amiros, thanks for the description of Es. I'd add that Es are also valuable because they are perceived as being nonthreatening (exception: Russell, who really needed his own mental health category), often provide levity, and like court jesters, can express the collective hostility building up in the tribe indirectly--either through jester-ing or by being a scapegoat. That role of scapegoat is so important to a dysfunctional group in particular, and it would be interesting to see if the times (recently) when the E has been voted off around F8 have been because those tribal families were less dysfunctional. In any case, Es do tend to be very loyal, and sometimes are complete outsiders--their "unusual" behavior means they are "different" from the other tribe members in any case. We used to say if we had a question about whether or not someone was E, they probably weren't. Last Edited By: Lady V 10/08/11 02:12 AM. Edited 1 times.
Olmec Donald		#1559	[-]
Posts: 2297 (10/08/11 04:09 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Jim and Cochran really seem like an older and younger brother pair to me, making Cochran an S. For two episodes now, Jim has been looking out for his little brother (despite going through a phase where he abandons him for the cool kids) and gives him mock punches every so often, very much brother behaviour. I think Cochran is similar to Fabio, who also initially had S-E confusion because he was a very young S who was still growing into the role.
fat little fingers		#1560	[-]
Posts: 6968 (10/08/11 11:30 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Join forum supporters Remove this ad OD, yeah, Cochran was definitely a Son when he was being mentored by Father/Eccentric Papa Bear. (Come to think of it, maybe his attempt to be a "Papa", when he really should have actively worked to be the Eccentric is the answer to his frustration/mystyfication of why he wasn't fitting in. Role confusion is a bitch.)

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