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dotsdfe wrote:

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No offense, but I think it's getting a bit late to say "We need to give them one more episode". By now, their edits should either be speaking for themselves, or they should be out. I fell for Sarita and Mike (and to a lesser extent Natalie) last season because I was thinking "one more episode" each time - and they kept getting these episodes that weren't terrible but weren't good, just enough for them to be "one more episode" yet again. I feel like we need to have things narrowed down by now: Sophie is a narrator without substance, and, in my opinion, she should be eliminated.

From a traditional Edgic perspective, this is right on.

From a "the turkey will be done when it's done" perspective, I feel like I pretty much have to see the merge happen before I can completely wipe out more people. I see a reasonable explanation for why any of the 5 main people left will have gotten the footage they did:
- Jim: He's getting a classic winners edit with few flaws. Obvious why he's at the top.
- Cochran: A personal growth story for a superfan may be well worth the extra visibility and OTTness.
- Sophie: Might be getting this low-key, yet smart portrayal to make us respect her while distancing her from the "crazy tribe."
- Dawn: Might be so incredibly unimportant in terms of game development because she had no game in the premerge.
- Coach: Most of the time they try to make him look like he's playing well and could they really leave Crazy Coach on the cutting room floor entirely?

If any of these five people won the game, we could look back and say "Yeah this premerge kinda made sense for them and for their story." Additionally, I think all of their numbers are at least sort of in the right place (most of them having a few hiccups, though). In each case, very little about Edgic theory would change (unless you use incredibly specific cutoffs like "Type As cannot receive a 4 visibility in episode 5").

Realistically, though? Jim is the clear top of the pile with Cochran close behind. Sophie, Dawn, and Coach look quite bad by comparison.

fat little fingers wrote:

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Re: Jim
Yes, but this last ep, his comments were oddly muted for an edit that has had him commenting thoroughly on every strategic turn.

Given that we have a sense of Jim's opinion on the strategy (i.e., that it was a bad move), I will be watching closely to see how it pans out. If it works well, then it is a very good thing for Jim to have a smaller role, here. It would look bad for Jim to trash a strategy that ends up working (even if he's still right about it). If it's a big flop, then Jim's warnings should have been included to further demonstrate his competence.

Re: Cochran
I've made my points above.

And they are very important points! His strategic development is so incredibly repetitive (This thing that happened beyond my control is great because I get to stay in the game)

Re: Sophie
What damns her is her being shown as in lock-step with Coach, (the Mikayla vote her one independent act.) 
I still agree with Phoenix that any Upolu's winner chance requires Coach surviving to the final vote.

How much deviation would be necessary in your mind? I think they've done a lot to demonstrate her and Albert as being autonomous. Actively campaigning against Edna is one thing, but we also have her critique of Coach's praying behavior (which is being used to further discredit Coach). They're on the same side, sure, but I think she and Albert have been thoroughly depicted as dissenters in the Cult o' Coach.

I also agree that Coach must be at the FTC if an Upolu winner occurs. In many ways, Coach's edit reminds me of Rob's..... in S8 All Stars that is. It's been a while, obviously, but both I believe both are/were portrayed as competent players that were absolutely effective tribe leaders. The reasons for Rob's fall were telegraphed in his absolutely ruthless and cocky gameplay. The reasons for Coach's fall could be telegraphed through his hypocrisies (which Sophie is detailing for us overtly for the first time this episode) and disloyal gameplay. If you take a look at their charts, you see that Rob (S8) and Coach (S23) are quite similarly rated.

So if Coach = S8 Rob as the FTC loser and this is a "Why X Lost" season, I think Sophie's edit fits rather well. Allied with the loser, yet distanced from them in subtle ways. Sophie isn't nearly as well developed as Amber (S8) was, but when you compare her to people like Danni and Natalie, I don't think she's THAT far off. Her complexity has just come in very small doses rather than all at once (Danni E7, Natalie E4). Worth at least keeping in mind, I think.

Re: Dawn
Bob arguments will be with us for the duration of Edgic, I guess.

Gotta be! If your winner didn't do anything important, they can't very well show them doing important things.

But I think the line is stretching verrry thin with Dawn. Unless she has spent basically the entire premerge saying nothing of value, I see no reason for her to be this hidden.

Re: Coach
Well, here I just disagree.Superficially, Coach may look good at times. But, any thoughtful pause reveals his constant hypocrisy and sense of entitlement.

But again, in what ways?

Personally? Coach is looking bad.
Strategically? Coach is looking fantastic. I believe he is objectively playing one of the (if not the) best games this season and the edit is showing every single bit of it. Their plan to "find" the idol and show it to the others is a great one and is comes at the absolute best time for it (right before the merge). Minimal chance that they will get smart and flush it out, provides a sense of tribe unity at a time where tribe unity is absolutely critical. He's in a great position in his tribe and has all the cards on his side. If anyone other than Coach (whose silly mantra makes this behavior look evil) were playing this game, I think his game would be more readily accepted as a good one.

The question for me with Coach is whether he is Rob (S8) or someone more like Brian (total asshole who played a great game) who is just getting huge airtime because he's a returning player. If we watched Thailand for the first time today, I have no doubt that Edgic would pick the wrong person. Brian was portrayed to be lazy, crass, and downright mean at times during the premerge. "If Brian won, why would they show him be so lazy?" "If Brian won, why would they show his sexist confessional right after the women complain? That could have been excluded." "If Brian won, they would hide the fact that he played such a mean game and treated people like objects." By honing in on every single scene that makes Coach look like a jerk as a PERSON, while downplaying everything they keep showing that builds respect for him as a PLAYER, people could very well be making the same mistake.

The fact that I have him right on the doorstep of elimination should say it all with regard to which direction I think he will go. I suspect Coach will be either a "very big character merge boot" or a loser at final tribal council where several players trash his condescending and invalid claims of honor during a jury performance. He could very well be sitting next to Edna (with the groundwork laid for her to also get few votes, being Coach's "annoying, distrustful sycophant") and Sophie (the lesser of two evils that the jury - and audience - respects for her otherwise intelligent gameplay). IF Upolu ends up dominating the endgame, this outcome seems very well-foreshadowed.

Then again, given the editorially likely success of Ozzy's gamble, I'm not sure how this could occur. But either way, I think the stories of the season AND the numbers could very well lay the groundwork for such an ending.