Cochran's move is so far the biggest of the game. There's both reasons this is a good move and a bad move. As of right now, I'm on the fence with it, and I think only time will tell if it pays off. I'm not really sure what Cochran's mind set was going into the vote (by that I mean I'm not sure if he voted for Keith based on how the Savaii tribe treated him, on the possibility of him drawing the purple rock, and future ramifications for his actions) so I'm evaluating it from my own perspective.
Reasons it was a bad move:
Reasons it was a bad move:
It looks like the whole Savaii Tribe is done with Cochran. There's a good chance that if he were to make it to the final 3, none of the Savaii members would vote for him to win. Dawn may, as I think she will be able to look at the move more rationally before the game is over. Instead of being the sixth man in a six member alliance, he is now the seventh man in a six member alliance (yes I wrote that right). They also had a statistical edge with the purple rock, as there would have been a 5/7 chance of an Upolu going home (just over 70%). If Savaii were to win the draw, they would have a six to five advantage in terms of numbers, and Cochran would still be trusted. He'd be at the bottom of the totem pole with the Savaii members, but he could work his way up as the game progresses, as Ozzy will be a major physical threat that will put a target on his back, and Cochran is so terrible at challenges which will take the target off of his. Also, there may be a more opportune time for him to flip, maybe when it gets down to a 6-1 Savaii advantage, then him Dawn and Jim go with the Upolu to make the number 4-3 (just one possible example). All I'm saying here is that he may have had more opportunities to shuffle up the deck later in the game, as it's still fairly early.
I'm sure there's a lot more to be said about why it's a bad move, but now I feel like talking about why it was good.
Why it was a good move:
The most obvious argument for why it's a good move is that he didn't have to draw rocks. He doesn't flip, get's the purple rock, peace out Cochran. There's more to it than that though. Cochran may be on the outskirts of the Upolu alliance, but he has a chance to work his way into it. As the game progresses, the Upolus may want to turn on each other and Cochran would be able to make a move at that point. If say the final seven is the Upolus and Cochran, this is a prime time for Cochran to be the swing vote and thus the most powerful person in the game once again. Seven is a very important number in Survivor, and if the Upolus all stay loyal there is a decent chance our final seven will in fact be the Upolus and Cochran. The Upolus could also turn on each other earlier. The two tribes were talked up as being so loyal to one another which made Cochran's move appear to be more crazy, as it APPEARS the Upolus would never turn on one another. We all know Brandon is a loose cannon and the vote was split their last tribal council. When Jeff said these were two of the tightest tribes he's seen, I thought that was a ridiculous comment. Plus, Edna's not really in with anyone except Coach, so Cochran could always move up above her in terms of the totem pole. Savaii is now so pissed at Cochran that this may bring him closer to the Upolus, as they will be able to sympathize for him and understand why he flipped, thus raising his credibility. Also, if he makes it to the final 3, he will have a valid argument that it was a justifiable move for him to flip, and may give him a little more respect as a player from the Savaii jury members (probably not very likely though). Plus, the Savaii members are now down in numbers, which will make them more desperate as they get picked off and more likely to want to work with Cochran again, which could make them be less upset about him turning on them at this point in the game. Finally, there was just under a 30% chance a Savaii member would go home, and Cochran would be on the wrong side of the numbers and in no way would be in with the Upolus.
I'm sure there's a lot of stuff that I missed out, but that's enough for me for now. It's hard to say, but I'd say this was ultimately a bad move. He has lost some jury votes and I'm not sure if he'll be able to recover from that, and I believe there would be a more opportune time for him to flip later in the game, which would have pissed off less people. If he's as savvy as he says he is, then he should be able to get in deeper with the Upolus and make amends with some of his former Savaii. I don't think he's really savvy at all though, and probably won't be able to take correct further actions to make this move justifiable.
If anyone has anything to add that'd be great, I really wanna dissect this move, as there's so many levels to it imho, and probably the most interesting thing that's happened in the game up to this point.
