Are you people serious? Why Cochran made the best move he could. in Survivor Sucks Forum

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Are you people serious? Why Cochran made the best move he could.

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GodlessDeviant		#41	[-]
Posts: 160 (11/03/11 11:10 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Click here to break the ad gravity rule. Remove this ad Star, even Dawn said that Cochran was treated like an outsider from day one. Just because we don't see it doesn't mean it didn't happen. Tango, the insider clips tell us that no one on Savaii had made any final 3 or 4 alliances with Cochran. Albert, Coach and Sophie did make him that promise. It was obvious to us that it was a ruse to get him to flip but to him it wouldn't be.
survivorpersonguy		#42	[-]
Posts: 3617 (11/03/11 11:22 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Like Dawn said, Cochran let his emotions get in the way.
jerknowitzki		#43	[-]
Posts: 27 (11/03/11 11:29 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Though the other Savaiis may not have been outright bullying Cochran, it's clear that they haven't wanted him around since the beginning. And due to the fact that he's been able to survive vote after vote, I think they resented him for still being in the game. With that kind of environment, its easy to see why Cochran would feel ostracized and want to flip.
movemycheese		#44	[-]
Posts: 95 (11/03/11 11:31 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Very nice post, Aldrick. Gives me things to think about.
star jumper		#45	[-]
Posts: 59611 (11/03/11 11:31 AM) I'm an ugly Yeti King Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Cockroash is the male Lil...whoops, Cockroach ain't no man.
tango		#46	[-]
Posts: 373 (11/03/11 11:31 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	GodlessDeviant wrote: Star, even Dawn said that Cochran was treated like an outsider from day one. Just because we don't see it doesn't mean it didn't happen. Tango, the insider clips tell us that no one on Savaii had made any final 3 or 4 alliances with Cochran. Albert, Coach and Sophie did make him that promise. It was obvious to us that it was a ruse to get him to flip but to him it wouldn't be. I don't think we know anything about the true hierarchy of Savaii (besides the original five). My speculation is based on pure game logic - Jim is in control of the tribe and he's a rational player. He has no reason to sit in the final 3 along side Dawn or Ozzy and it's in his best interest to break up Keith and Whitney. Albert\Coach\Sophie's promise to him means shit. They needed his vote and that's it. If he's a student of the game he should've known that. The best option to him is to rat (later in the game) on Coach\Sophie\Albert to Edna, Brandon and Rick, telling them his final 4 deal and vote them off. But anyway, he's screwed and has no chance to win the jury vote.
drinkinghotchocolate		#47	[-]
Posts: 30846 (11/03/11 12:00 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Antithesys wrote: Amazing. Before: Cochran had a 1-in-6 chance. Stick with his original tribe, stay loyal, and the people who know him better may start considering keeping him around once they've knocked off their enemies (he already seemed to have Dawn in his pocket). Now: Cochran is, at best, seventh. His new tribe has no loyalty to him. His old tribe has no loyalty to him. If he makes it to endgame, it's because Coach is bringing him as a goat (and because the rest of the tribe is too stupid to realize that). In that scenario, there are at least four jurors who will never, ever vote for Cochran in a billion years. From a human standpoint, I totally understand the move. Had I been kicked around, had I had the problems of the tribe heaped upon me, I probably would have flipped too. It was a great victory for the little guy. Just like Ian. But just like Ian, from a Survivor point of view, it was balls-out the absolute wrong thing to do. Cochran kept his dignity, but he did so at his own expense. I disagree. I agree with the original poster - its the best move he could have made under the circumstances. Everyone is saying he was 6th but thats not true, he had a 1 in 7 chance of being 12th, and a 2 in 7 chance in being either eliminated or on the wrong side of a tribal imbalance, had Jim been voted off. He now has a much better chance of getting to at least 7th, and as far as he knows there are cracks in Upolu that he can exploit later. What strategy did we congratulate Sandra for? As-long-as-it-ain't-me? Textbook case of it last night I also disagree that his move was spineless, as he admitted right at tribal to Ozzy and Jim that he defected
the sole surviva		#48	[-]
Posts: 494 (11/03/11 12:09 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Last Edited By: the sole surviva 11/03/11 12:32 PM. Edited 2 times.
token lunatic		#49	[-]
Posts: 33286 (11/03/11 12:10 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Damn. I want me some Mickey Dees fries.
cx		#50	[-]
Posts: 1859 (11/03/11 12:12 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Click here to break the ad gravity rule. Remove this ad He still could have stuck with Savaii and go for the 86% success rate and not hand the game over to Upolu. And he's not assured 7th, he could get Penner'd. As-long-as-it-ain't-me doesn't work on a merged tribe like this as it worked on Balboa.
kabulujug		#51	[-]
Posts: 1275 (11/03/11 12:13 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	COCH-TRAIN SMASH!!!!
Aldrick		#52	[-]
Posts: 5 (11/03/11 12:30 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	tango wrote: If he wants to win the game it was a dumb move. He will never, ever get the Savai votes. The only person he can win against is Brandon and unless there's a final 2 he's DOOMED. This seems to be where we are disagreeing. Cochran NEVER had a chance to win the game. His only hope to win the game is to play major moves, and maybe earn the respect of others by going from underdog to master player. He'd have to totally bring a Parvati level game. That would at least allow him to try and earn the respect of others in the game, by showing them that he's an awesome player, but even then it would be a close vote. However, there is no way in hell Cochran is going to be able to pull it off because of his lack of self-confidence and neurotic personality. Thus, he has zero chance to win, and the best he can do is play for second place. The best way to get to second place is through Brandon and Coach. If we assume that he made it to the final three with the Savaii and every thing went exactly as you desired it. Will Cochran have a chance at winning the million? No! And while there was certainly a chance he'd be taken to the final three with them (because EVERYONE knows he wouldn't win), his chances are still better with Upolu because now not only does he have no chance to win, his former tribe hates him making taking him even MORE secure. If Cochran was going to have any shot at the million he would have to betray lots of people - first Savaii, if not in this vote, then in the near future with another - he'd have to destroy the Upolu alliance, and basically build a new alliance from the destruction of both tribes - one that he leads. There is zero chance of that happening. The main way to win Survivor is to be seen as a masterful player (often as a leader of an alliance as well), be extremely well liked, take people who absolutely don't deserve it, or take people who are absolutely hated and despised by the jury. Cochran meets the last two criteria. I can think of absolutely no one, except maybe Edna (and even then it'd be somewhat close - within maybe one or two votes) - that Cochran can beat in a final three. His most ideal final three would be Edna, Rick, and himself. If such a final three would happen, Rick would win.
the sole surviva		#53	[-]
Posts: 496 (11/03/11 12:35 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Aldrick wrote: tango wrote: If he wants to win the game it was a dumb move. He will never, ever get the Savai votes. The only person he can win against is Brandon and unless there's a final 2 he's DOOMED. This seems to be where we are disagreeing. Cochran NEVER had a chance to win the game. His only hope to win the game is to play major moves, and maybe earn the respect of others by going from underdog to master player. He'd have to totally bring a Parvati level game. That would at least allow him to try and earn the respect of others in the game, by showing them that he's an awesome player, but even then it would be a close vote. However, there is no way in hell Cochran is going to be able to pull it off because of his lack of self-confidence and neurotic personality. Thus, he has zero chance to win, and the best he can do is play for second place. The best way to get to second place is through Brandon and Coach. If we assume that he made it to the final three with the Savaii and every thing went exactly as you desired it. Will Cochran have a chance at winning the million? No! And while there was certainly a chance he'd be taken to the final three with them (because EVERYONE knows he wouldn't win), his chances are still better with Upolu because now not only does he have no chance to win, his former tribe hates him making taking him even MORE secure. If Cochran was going to have any shot at the million he would have to betray lots of people - first Savaii, if not in this vote, then in the near future with another - he'd have to destroy the Upolu alliance, and basically build a new alliance from the destruction of both tribes - one that he leads. There is zero chance of that happening. The main way to win Survivor is to be seen as a masterful player (often as a leader of an alliance as well), be extremely well liked, take people who absolutely don't deserve it, or take people who are absolutely hated and despised by the jury. Cochran meets the last two criteria. I can think of absolutely no one, except maybe Edna (and even then it'd be somewhat close - within maybe one or two votes) - that Cochran can beat in a final three. His most ideal final three would be Edna, Rick, and himself. If such a final three would happen, Rick would win. There is no red x big enough for this
super pole2000		#54	[-]
Posts: 556 (11/03/11 12:44 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	This was actually a GREAT move for Cochran going forward. On a season like this, being the weasel he is, Cochran has a real shot at a deep finish in the game. For all the flack Cochran has been getting for not playing a strategic game, he’s at the point now where he has actually played strategically with pretty much everyone who is left. He worked with Jim for the Elyse blindside, Ozzy for the HII handoff (remember: he RETURNED the Idol to Ozzy), and has worked with Upolu (specifically Coach, Albert, Brandon, and Sophie) for the tie-breaker vote. Cochran is no threat to lead an alliance, but now he’s THE GUY you go to when you want to shake up the game. Cochran might not have it in him, but at least now he has an opportunity to maneuver his way into a final 3.
Aldrick		#55	[-]
Posts: 6 (11/03/11 12:47 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	the sole surviva wrote: Last night I was critical of Cochan's move, but I thought about it more and he is better off with Upolu. If he stayed with Savaii, he would probably been voted off as a jury threat at the F6. Now with Upolu, he will pagong Savaii until the F7. At the F7, he becomes the swing voted between Brandon/Albert/Rick and Coach/Sophie/Edna. Cochran gets to pick who goes to the F4. At the F4, he will probably be taken a as a goat. Granted, he won't get the votes of any Savaiis (save probably Dawn). Assuming he sides with Coach, he could get a vote from Brandon (accusing Coach of dishonesty and disloyalty). If he can give a good jury speech, he may have a chance, but I doubt it. This is pretty much the way I see it. Cochran had pretty much zero chance of winning the million no matter what decision he made. This move assured that he'll get further in the game, and if he plays his cards right, I really do see Coach and Brandon forming a fairly strong alliance with him. Although I disagree with your view of the Upolu alliance. At it's core, it's Albert and Sophie vs Coach and Edna. Brandon and Rick are wild cards. If I had to guess, I'd say Rick would side with Albert and Sophie (he appears closer to them than Coach and Brandon), and Brandon would side with his prayer buddy Coach. This leaves Cochran as the man who decides how Upolu crumbles. This, of course, assumes that Albert and Sophie don't play a big move by trying to form a new alliance. Both of them are very smart. When they figured out where they stood... well, that's what keeps the game interesting. ;)
Aldrick		#56	[-]
Posts: 7 (11/03/11 12:50 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	drinkinghotchocolate wrote: Antithesys wrote: Amazing. Before: Cochran had a 1-in-6 chance. Stick with his original tribe, stay loyal, and the people who know him better may start considering keeping him around once they've knocked off their enemies (he already seemed to have Dawn in his pocket). Now: Cochran is, at best, seventh. His new tribe has no loyalty to him. His old tribe has no loyalty to him. If he makes it to endgame, it's because Coach is bringing him as a goat (and because the rest of the tribe is too stupid to realize that). In that scenario, there are at least four jurors who will never, ever vote for Cochran in a billion years. From a human standpoint, I totally understand the move. Had I been kicked around, had I had the problems of the tribe heaped upon me, I probably would have flipped too. It was a great victory for the little guy. Just like Ian. But just like Ian, from a Survivor point of view, it was balls-out the absolute wrong thing to do. Cochran kept his dignity, but he did so at his own expense. I disagree. I agree with the original poster - its the best move he could have made under the circumstances. Everyone is saying he was 6th but thats not true, he had a 1 in 7 chance of being 12th, and a 2 in 7 chance in being either eliminated or on the wrong side of a tribal imbalance, had Jim been voted off. He now has a much better chance of getting to at least 7th, and as far as he knows there are cracks in Upolu that he can exploit later. What strategy did we congratulate Sandra for? As-long-as-it-ain't-me? Textbook case of it last night I also disagree that his move was spineless, as he admitted right at tribal to Ozzy and Jim that he defected Exactly.
ZiggyTosh	TL;DR	#57	[-]
Posts: 21 (11/03/11 12:51 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	But you're absolutely right. Cochran made a SMART move, the best move he could have made given the circumstances. Dawn will do the same next week. And Upolu are very, very poor strategists if they thought that the best way to engender loyalty was to treat the guy like shit. Also, classic that Jim equates "cowardliness" with refusal to bend over and take the pot farmer's medicine.
TheyHadFaces		#58	[-]
Posts: 11006 (11/03/11 12:58 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Wah, Wah, Wah, people were mean to Cochrain. If he is such a jelly-spined wimp, which he obviously is, why the hell did he come on the show? He's enough of a fan to know that players like him do not win. Ever. The jury vote for people that do well at the physical or strategic aspects of the game. He is pathetic at both of them. He's whiny and annoying. So, is there any chance we don't get a boring Pagonging? Another HII might shake things up.
tango		#59	[-]
Posts: 377 (11/03/11 12:58 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Aldrick wrote: tango wrote: If he wants to win the game it was a dumb move. He will never, ever get the Savai votes. The only person he can win against is Brandon and unless there's a final 2 he's DOOMED. This seems to be where we are disagreeing. Cochran NEVER had a chance to win the game. His only hope to win the game is to play major moves, and maybe earn the respect of others by going from underdog to master player. He'd have to totally bring a Parvati level game. That would at least allow him to try and earn the respect of others in the game, by showing them that he's an awesome player, but even then it would be a close vote. However, there is no way in hell Cochran is going to be able to pull it off because of his lack of self-confidence and neurotic personality. Thus, he has zero chance to win, and the best he can do is play for second place. The best way to get to second place is through Brandon and Coach. If we assume that he made it to the final three with the Savaii and every thing went exactly as you desired it. Will Cochran have a chance at winning the million? No! And while there was certainly a chance he'd be taken to the final three with them (because EVERYONE knows he wouldn't win), his chances are still better with Upolu because now not only does he have no chance to win, his former tribe hates him making taking him even MORE secure. If Cochran was going to have any shot at the million he would have to betray lots of people - first Savaii, if not in this vote, then in the near future with another - he'd have to destroy the Upolu alliance, and basically build a new alliance from the destruction of both tribes - one that he leads. There is zero chance of that happening. The main way to win Survivor is to be seen as a masterful player (often as a leader of an alliance as well), be extremely well liked, take people who absolutely don't deserve it, or take people who are absolutely hated and despised by the jury. Cochran meets the last two criteria. I can think of absolutely no one, except maybe Edna (and even then it'd be somewhat close - within maybe one or two votes) - that Cochran can beat in a final three. His most ideal final three would be Edna, Rick, and himself. If such a final three would happen, Rick would win. I think in a certain realistic combination like himself, Jim and Whitney (this is also the best final 3 for Jim) he had a decent chance to win the game. Whitney would've been seen as a coattail rider (had Keith and Ozzy's vote probably) and Jim as the arrogant mastermind backstabber. In this case Cochran would've a good chance to get Dawn's vote and even some members of Upolu, who would've seen him as a likable underdog (survived the pre-merge while always being a target). I can see Brandon, Coach, Edna and even Sophie voting for him.
Gregoire		#60	[-]
Posts: 37335 (11/03/11 01:02 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Click here to break the ad gravity rule. Remove this ad super pole2000 wrote: This was actually a GREAT move for Cochran going forward. NO.

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Are you people serious? Why Cochran made the best move he could.