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cookie wrote:

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which brings up why is Upolu any better? They also were all willing to go for the rock.

Why is Edna any better than a Savaii? If the argument is they had Cochrane, well that didn't work out on the vote. It was tied. Seems like it's the same stupidty on Sophie, Coach et all's logic.

So by the same turn, it seems like they had five lemmings and Coach willing to base the game on chance.

I know there are other variables, but the basic principle of picking the rocks is the exact same point of view as Savaii's.

As far as I know everything went entirely to plan.  Cochran was supposed to vote with Savaii with the first vote, to know who Upolu is voting four.  On the second vote he was supposed to vote with Upolu, which he did.  I believe he also told them that they were playing the idol on Whitney, so they wouldn't accidentally vote for her.  Upolu didn't want to tell him who they were voting for until he's had a chance to prove his loyalty.  After all, he could have simply chickened out at the last minute, told Savaii that they were voting for Keith, and then Savaii would have given the idol to Keith and Rick would have went to redemption.

That seemed to be Savaii's entire plan.  Give the HII to Whitney as they believed she was the most likely target for the Upolu votes (but Cochran had betrayed them); then knock out Rick to get the numbers advantage.  If that failed, they were willing to go to rocks because as a tribe the odds were more in their favor.

dabu wrote:

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...so why the hell would you piss off the people you're supposed to have been aligned with? You shouldn't decide to flip because doing what's expected - going into the merge united and not betraying your tribe - would upset the people you've never played with before anyway. It's his fault for showing himself as being on the outs in the first place.

I'm not sure what you're talking about here... First of all, he didn't have an alliance with anyone on Savaii but maybe Dawn, and she was ready to flip until she got immunity and didn't have to draw rocks.  Plus, she'd been more than eager to throw Cochran under the bus in the past because she knew it was either him or her.  So that's not exactly a strong alliance. 

So who exactly did he betray really?  Some random people he just happened to be grouped with?  As far as I know none of them had a final three or even a final four agreement with him.  Since they didn't seem to even make the effort, chances are they viewed him as expendable, and likely weren't even considering taking him to the end as a goat.  They simply expected him to do what they told him - in effect, they took his vote for granted, and it came back to bite them in the ass.

I don't think it was some big secret that he was on the outs.  I think the outburst by Ozzy at the final tribal immunity proved that, and it's likely the only reason Cochran got the idol over someone else (like Jim), was because he so clearly lost the challenge for the tribe, was its weakest member, and thus the most likely to be sent to Redemption Island.  The lie wouldn't be believable otherwise.

mtl wrote:

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Aldrick wrote:

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cookie wrote:

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which brings up why is Upolu any better? They also were all willing to go for the rock.

Why is Edna any better than a Savaii? If the argument is they had Cochrane, well that didn't work out on the vote. It was tied. Seems like it's the same stupidty on Sophie, Coach et all's logic.

So by the same turn, it seems like they had five lemmings and Coach willing to base the game on chance.

I know there are other variables, but the basic principle of picking the rocks is the exact same point of view as Savaii's.

As far as I know everything went entirely to plan.  Cochran was supposed to vote with Savaii with the first vote, to know who Upolu is voting four.  On the second vote he was supposed to vote with Upolu, which he did.  I believe he also told them that they were playing the idol on Whitney, so they wouldn't accidentally vote for her.  Upolu didn't want to tell him who they were voting for until he's had a chance to prove his loyalty.  After all, he could have simply chickened out at the last minute, told Savaii that they were voting for Keith, and then Savaii would have given the idol to Keith and Rick would have went to redemption.

That seemed to be Savaii's entire plan.  Give the HII to Whitney as they believed she was the most likely target for the Upolu votes (but Cochran had betrayed them); then knock out Rick to get the numbers advantage.  If that failed, they were willing to go to rocks because as a tribe the odds were more in their favor.


 
This is where I fault Cochran for telling Upolu that Savaii was playing the idol on Whitney. He could've hedged his bets and not given Upolu that info, or better yet told Upolu the wrong person (and if Upolu still voted out a Savaii without the idol Cochran could play it as Savaii told him wrong) ,  and then there would've been at least a better chance that Upolu would've voted for the person with the idol. Then he potentionally would've not had to draw rocks which I think having to risk drawing rocks was the main reason he flipped. And Cochran would not have made as many enemies.  It jsut seems he gave everything to Upolu and didn't really  get much in return other than a claim to be final 4. He probably would've been final 4 or 3 in Savaii anyway had they won the tribal council vote.

I agree.  I likely would have hedged with that information too.  However, seeing as he didn't, I think Upolu trusts him even more now.  Depending on the conversations they had I could see an argument for full out betrayal.  If Dawn was a more stable ally, his best bet would have been to hedge, and then place him and Dawn in control of a strong alliance.  However, had Savaii won the vote, Dawn would have went with them all the way - wanting to take out all of Upolu before focusing on Savaii.  Which, IMO, is a bad move.