Family Final Four in Survivor Speculation Forum

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Beefcake

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Posts: 12175

(11/06/11 02:41 PM)

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Last night I lay in bed looking up at the stars in the sky and I thought to myself, where the heck is the ceiling.
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This has nothing to do with Family Final Four, but I think it's pretty clear that Ozzy has to go the first week he doesn't win the immunity necklace.

Lady V

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Posts: 826

(11/07/11 09:37 PM)

Beefcake, I think it does have to do with FF4--Ozzy made a hero's move: venture out into dangerous territory to kill the dragon (who is actually female in mythology--she guards her nest and eggs) and bring back the boon to the village/tribe. It's just that the hero archetype is a son, not a father. Once the boon is brought back, then what? Either Ozzy transforms into father, is recognized and honored forevermore as returning hero, or is booted. [ETA: A recognized returning hero is beyond the game, and therefore, leaves it rapidly or wins.] If he tries to compete with Coach for F, one of them will go, and I believe it will be Ozzy.

FLF, I see the argument for Cochran as son individuating from his mom--he didn't have a lot of choice, since mom abandoned him for the abusive family (great analysis). But she talks about him like he's the disturbed/developmentally delayed/"off" child who needs protection. I believe he is an eccentric.

Anyway, I still don't see Jim as anything but a son; haven't seen any F behavior from him, and he and Rick seem under-shown in general. There are too many sons, and, historically, it should be time for the slaughter of the sibs to continue...

Strongest survivors in each family role, IMO (in descending order when there are multiples):

F: Coach

M: Dawn

E: Cochran

S: Ozzy, Brandon, Albert (Jim, Rick)

D: Whitney, Sophie, Edna (a strange, inconsistent edit for her)

Phoenix1269

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Posts: 1340

(11/07/11 10:51 PM)

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i know that i have been back and forth on some people all this while...like Jim and Ozzy, but i think that you're summary is pretty much it, Lady V.

Although... is Cochran an E? I know that E's are generally very loyal, so flipping does not mesh per se...however, E's are loyal when they feel like they are part of the fold and intergrated into their alliance. Cochran so far has not been part of a real alliance that we have seen. Briefly with Jim, and there are some extraneous connections to Ozzy. But his only real connection is with Dawn.

It's possible that once Cochran finds the alliance that appreciates him (a la Phillip from last season)... he will become more loyal. He is already showing signs of that by flipping with Upolu... he feels more loyaty to them because they treat him better. *shrug*

I think Jim is an Eldest Son and i think that Rick...well, he might be a son or maybe an E, we really haven't seen much to say for sure have we?

I've also wondered about Edna, she was called uber-loyal by Coach and has so far demonstrated that which fits E, and she seems to be not very socially adept, even though she is aware that her social game is very important...she still rubs people the wrong way. Could be D, could be E....

i don't know... this season is confusing for me....

Beefcake

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Posts: 12210

(11/08/11 12:53 PM)

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Lady V wrote:
Beefcake, I think it does have to do with FF4--Ozzy made a hero's move: venture out into dangerous territory to kill the dragon (who is actually female in mythology--she guards her nest and eggs) and bring back the boon to the village/tribe. It's just that the hero archetype is a son, not a father. Once the boon is brought back, then what? Either Ozzy transforms into father, is recognized and honored forevermore as returning hero, or is booted. [ETA: A recognized returning hero is beyond the game, and therefore, leaves it rapidly or wins.] If he tries to compete with Coach for F, one of them will go, and I believe it will be Ozzy.

ZOMG, I didn't realize I was so brilliant!!!

fat little fingers

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Posts: 7087

(11/08/11 04:19 PM)

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LV:
But she talks about him like he's the disturbed/developmentally delayed/"off" child who needs protection. I believe he is an eccentric.

I read her comments to us and him as being protective and worried for him. Also she is hurt that "he's watching out for himself tonight and no one else."

But, really, didn't she selfishly decide to stay with a family who she admits abused Son, Cochran? Who is really the selfish, emotional one? Mama.

Phoenix:
Although... is Cochran an E? I know that E's are generally very loyal, so flipping does not mesh per se...however, E's are loyal when they feel like they are part of the fold and intergrated into their alliance.

Dawn to Cochran at the treemail scene, " I don't have to have loyalty to the tribe, because I do feel that there's been a ton of disrespect and I feel like if I flash back the last 21 days, it's been you and me on the outs..."

Mama Dawn confirms that they are on the outs. And yet she chose to stay with them.

A successful E usually has an F-4 agreement with the strongest alliance members. Cochran has no alliance outside of Jim using him and Dawn to boot Elyse.

Cochran acts like an E.

He tells us he isn't a hero. That he will "slither on his belly" if he has to to win. That's very non-competitive.

He promises loyalty to Upolu if they will simply protect him. That too is a very E request.

But, in private, he talks to us about his being a big player, maybe even a mastermind.

For this, Mama Dawn simply worries about him and tells him that he is being naive.

She wants him to come back and continue to be non-competitive. ("...to me this is starting a war and that's not how you remedy something.")

At the start of the episode Cochran may have had role confusion: Eccentric/Son.

Maybe by breaking away from Mother he has clarified his role. But as what?

Is he an Upolu E?

A new Son under Coach's wing?

But, ultimately what he did this episode was choose to begin fighting back. That's very Son!

He and Dawn still have an emotional bond. So maybe Son is his real Family role.

Lady V

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Posts: 827

(11/08/11 11:06 PM)

Yes, Beefcake, you are! You ARE! Laugh

I am confused, with Phoenix--you and FLF have many good points. It will be interesting to see how Cochran behaves this time, S or E. He sure isn't an effective E. Does anyone remember that early confessional, where he said something like he wasn't any of the personalities he was portraying and was going to highlight his bumbling side--public vs. private? This E classification is so important, because so far, no E has ever won Survivor.

(sigh) I miss Big Tom. Frown

fat little fingers

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Posts: 7090

(11/09/11 12:30 PM)

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LV, I'm hoping tonight resolves Cochran's Family role. I see both Edna and Rick as Es. If Cochran is an E, that's way-y too many Es for this point.

Rick fits E well: No scheming against his alliance. A solid alliance. Non-competitive with the Siblings.

Edna fits, because no one sees her as an immunity threat. She has vowed to stay true to Coach, even if things get ugly. She will be totally loyal, as her survival is totally dependent on Coach's survival. He is right that she would fight fiercely to keep him in the game.

Cochran can only be an E in the Upolu camp. But, he has no seniority above Rick or Edna, so his E rank is very bad.

Cochran does seem to have a personal connection with Coach and maybe Brandon, which moves him secretly up in status. Maybe.

He seems to have decided that he's a failed Family member with Savaii.

It makes sense that Dawn stayed with the Savaiis, since her Mother role is very strong and she has a definite place with them.

Eh...brain poop. Looking forward to tonight.

Tyran Amiros

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Posts: 266

(11/09/11 01:12 PM)

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LV and flf, I agree that Rick fits E best. He's loyal, non-threatening, and with the Cochran Show and two returning players, maybe we just haven't seen the Big Tom-esque E moments. I'm not sure what to do with Edna, but I think her E-ness may a case of "eldest daughter". She's got typical D-bonding and loyalty with F Coach. Her relationship with Coach is more like Caryn and Tom from Palau--a parental "we have each others' back if the crazy kids try anything."

I still believe Cochran's an S. In fact, if I had to develop an archetypical S story, I would give Cochran's paradoxical quest for independence and approval as the example. The typical Son is a paradox. He wants to prove he can succeed (not dominate, that's for the F), but at the same time, he wants the respect and approval of the parents. Many sons prove this by their devotion to the parent (think of all the F takes the Sons on a fishing trip moments), but more independent-minded Sons, or in Fatherless tribes, do so by making bold moves strategically or dominating challenges. I think I've mentioned it before, but most of the game's "masterminds" from Rob C. to Todd to Stephen were Sons. Adults want order and predictability. Children don't mind a little chaos--it helps them get the upper hand. Yet at the same time, when Ss make these moves, they feel the urge to justify it to the adults--it would be a very typical S behavior for Cochran to spend a good chunk of tonight's episode attempting to convince Jim and Dawn that he did something good.

Cochran was treated like an E in the Savaii camp, but what Dawn and Coach (no surprise that it's the parental types) both realized was Cochran was not an E, but rather a Son. I don't know if the bonus footage is allowed in this thread, but there is a great video of Coach telling Albert and Sophie how to win Cochran over, and it basically boils down to "treat him like an S, not an E". This failure to recognize this was Savaii's problem. Finally, from a FF4 perspective, I saw Brandon's last comment to be very much like an older brother defending a younger brother.

fat little fingers

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Posts: 7099

(11/09/11 09:39 PM)

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Ah, Slaughter of the Siblings season has begun!

birdlady

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Posts: 4549

(11/10/11 09:47 AM)

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Last night I lay in bed looking up at the stars in the sky and I thought to myself, where the heck is the ceiling.
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F Benjamin
M Dawn
S Albert, Brandon, Sophie
D Whitney, Edna
E Cochran, ?Rick

Jim, Keith, Ozzy

Dawn doing the M thing. Benjamin-Brandon-Cochran trying to rationalize they don't need an M. Albert-Sophie know the family needs one, but that game strategy says cast her out.

I'd agree, Cochran wants to be S. But that doesn't mean he is. Just like the classic eldest S wanting to be F. Everybody else wants Cochran to be the pet, dressing him up in their clothes and cuddling with him when they're sad.

Whitney and Rick toast from editing. Too many Ss in the main tribe, with at least one looking to come back from RI. So the S spot at the end may be filled based on challenge/duel prowess, not on how well someone fits in the family role.

FF4 Benjamin, Dawn, ?S, Cochran.

Beefcake

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Posts: 12248

(11/10/11 01:46 PM)

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Now that it's been revealed that I am a Family Final Four genius, here is the correct answer:

F Coach
M Dawn
S Albert, Brandon, Rick
D Whitney, Edna, Sophie
E Cochran

RI: Jim, Keith, Ozzy (all S)

This was a fast-paced episode because of the double boot. Jim's reaction to Cochran destroyed my long-standing hope that he could be an F. There were also comments this week and last about Jim's temper, which we never heard about in the earlier episodes. Dawn was oozing motherly karma, and Brandon and Cochran (the youngest) seemed to like that, while eldest son Albert doesn't want anyone coming between him and dad. Coach wanted to fight at the immunity challenge, but the kids were hungry so he took them to eat. It was more important to take care of them than satisfy his own personal desire to play.

Final Four
F Coach
M Dawn
D Edna
E Cochran

Based on the edit, I really don't see how anyone can win this game besides Dawn.

Badass Bard

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Posts: 30

(11/10/11 04:09 PM)

Lady V wrote:
Yes, Beefcake, you are! You ARE!

I am confused, with Phoenix--you and FLF have many good points. It will be interesting to see how Cochran behaves this time, S or E. He sure isn't an effective E. Does anyone remember that early confessional, where he said something like he wasn't any of the personalities he was portraying and was going to highlight his bumbling side--public vs. private? This E classification is so important, because so far, no E has ever won Survivor.

(sigh) I miss Big Tom.

I had high hopes for Phillip. I thought he would emerge into a "son" at FTC but no he didn't deliver. Anyway i think that if an excentric character would win they would give him a "growth edit" to show that while he may have been an "E" at first he can still emerge into something "greater" like an "S". Interestingly that is, at leat in my opinion, exactly the edit that Cochran gets.

Olmec Donald

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Posts: 2371

(11/10/11 05:23 PM)

Has there ever been anyone who m.orphed midseason?

Lady V

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Posts: 828

(11/10/11 09:33 PM)

Olmec Donald wrote:
Has there ever been anyone who m.orphed midseason?

Nope. There have been characters we were unclear about--we've said they have 'role confusion.' I thought Cochran looked more E than ever last ep. Birdlady (love your new bird!) said it well:

I'd agree, Cochran wants to be S. But that doesn't mean he is. Just like the classic eldest S wanting to be F. Everybody else wants Cochran to be the pet, dressing him up in their clothes and cuddling with him when they're sad.

Eccentrics are on the outskirts--pretty tough for them to get enough votes at the end. Besides, Beefcake has spoken. :)

About Edna, I agree with what Tyran Amiros wrote:

I'm not sure what to do with Edna, but I think her E-ness may a case of "eldest daughter". She's got typical D-bonding and loyalty with F Coach. Her relationship with Coach is more like Caryn and Tom from Palau--a parental "we have each others' back if the crazy kids try anything."

fat little fingers

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Posts: 7103

(11/10/11 11:17 PM)

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Edna as Daughter makes sense, since she seems to be on Albert and Sophie's radar and an E wouldn't be at this point.

Siblings are always watching each other and ready to ally or to pounce when it's advantageous.

Possibly Cochran was a failed Family member, when he flipped.

Jim told usin Ep2 that the Misfits were simply cannon fodder:

"We have the next players to go set. Obviously Cochran, Dawn and Papa Bear. Each with their own idiosyncrasies or weaknesses. They just don't fit in..."

Papa Bear talked about being frustrated that he couldn't find a way to be a part of the main group.

Dawn established herself as Mother.

But Cochran was just hanging on throughout the pre-merge.

I'm still not clear what role Cochran is at this point and that's either bad for me or for him. Lol.

Beefcake

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Posts: 12264

(11/11/11 02:35 PM)

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Lady V wrote:
Besides, Beefcake has spoken. :)

Damn straight.

Pay attention, bitches.

Lady V

F7!

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Posts: 829

(11/16/11 11:26 PM)

Hm. They are really hurrying this season along...

F: Coach

S: Albert (an oedipal challenge toward Coach tonight, but note that Albert did not try to take dad out); Brandon; Rick (I keep forgetting about him)

D: Sophie, Edna

E: Cochran

RI: Ozzy (S), Whitney (D), Dawn (M)--a nice little family out there...

Did anyone else notice how many references there were to "the family" and "father" tonight? Whoa. Lotsa' sons...slaughter of sibs should continue a bit longer... F6 is a whisper away! FF4 predicts no duplicate F, M, or Es at F6--and here we are, again...

ETA: Phoeeeeeeeenixxxxxxx.... looks like another single father season--two SFSs, back-to-back! From Phoenix's excellent analysis of past single parent seasons, and post from near the end of last season:

Based on these observations, here are the four patterns that we can have in a single parent season:

a) 1 true parent + 3 kids (56%)
b) 1 true parent + 2 kids + 1 E kid (22%)
c) 1 E parent + 3 kids (11%)
d) 1 true parent + 1 adult E + 2 kids (11%)

It seems that even in the single parent seasons, there is a desire for some stability, therefore, true roles seem to be preferred.

Last Edited By: Lady V 11/16/11 11:30 PM. Edited 1 times.

birdlady

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Posts: 4569

(11/19/11 08:47 AM)

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So the potential Father God/Ben Wade conflict was resolved by Wade assuming both roles as Zeus, which neatly clarifies the rest of the dominant family structure, and sets up a virgilean slaughter.

Albert/Sophie as one cojoined Gemini S
Brandon as Hercules. Always wanted to do good, but given to destructive and unpredictable moments
Edna not really D or M but one of those maiden types always getting knocked up by swans or sunbeams
Cochran as Mercury for his flightiness
Rick some role confusion, as the cattle deity should be female, but probably filling the role of Vulcan here. Silent, hardworking, not terribly relevant to the story
Ozzy as Prometheus, here bringer of fish. The one that humanity roots for, but ultimately not able to break into the divine pantheon

Phoenix1269

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Posts: 1375

(11/19/11 03:35 PM)

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maybe Ozzy is really Poseidan...God of the Sea and Zeus' brother.
THAT would be an epic battle!

always like Poseidan... he's my favourite

ModestyBlaiser

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Posts: 889

(11/19/11 03:50 PM)

Last night I lay in bed looking up at the stars in the sky and I thought to myself, where the heck is the ceiling.
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Phoenix1269 wrote:

maybe Ozzy is really Poseidan...God of the Sea and Zeus' brother.
THAT would be an epic battle!

always like Poseidan... he's my favourite

Vs.

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