Where all the Cochran defenders hiding? I thought him flipping was genius? in Survivor Sucks Forum

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Where all the Cochran defenders hiding? I thought him flipping was genius?

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Apollo x		#61	[-]
Posts: 68 (12/01/11 03:16 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Ads - The reason I wake up every morning. Remove this ad cx wrote: I hope everyone figures out now that big moves ≠ good moves. Um, didn't you hear: "This game respects big moves".
quietsurvivorfan		#62	[-]
Posts: 20760 (12/01/11 03:24 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	cx wrote: I hope everyone figures out now that big moves ≠ good moves. That is something that BB13 Dani forgot when she tried to stab her alliance in the back in week 2 of BB13.
quietsurvivorfan		#63	[-]
Posts: 20761 (12/01/11 03:26 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	WylDawg wrote: Most satisfying boot in a long ass time. Cochran is officially the Ronnie of Survivor. I hope Jim clocks him in the mouth at LL. Good analogy. Cochran is to Coach what Ronnie was to Jessie. Both fucked up their own games for ridiculous idol worship.
ArtieeLange		#64	[-]
Posts: 1198 (12/01/11 03:41 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Where are you gonna hide when Coch wins fan favorite? Or when he is back on All-Stars? Or when he loses his virginity?
quietsurvivorfan		#65	[-]
Posts: 20762 (12/01/11 03:45 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	He has a bigger chance of losing his virginity before the age of 40, than winning the fan vote this season. If he is brought back in an all star game, they will boot him first so he can't fuck up their games.
SurvILA		#66	[-]
Posts: 452 (12/01/11 04:28 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	His flipping eliminated the possibility of him drawing a purple rock, ensured Upolu domination, Albert not going first or second after merge, Savaii pagonging = it is a good move. It MAY not be the best move for HIS game, .... that I don't care.
Yeaster		#67	[-]
Posts: 11259 (12/01/11 04:51 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	So glad that Upolo used him like toilet paper. That was absolutely what the fuck he deserved. Too bad he won't get roasted in front of the jury, but maybe he will in Ponderosa!
Constantinople		#68	[-]
Posts: 1065 (12/01/11 08:16 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	ArtieeLange wrote: Where are you gonna hide when Coch wins fan favorite? Russell, Jane & John: 3 bitch peas in a pod ArtieeLange wrote: Or when he is back on All-Stars? I'll watch him get voted out first ArtieeLange wrote: Or when he loses his virginity? I watched Upolu fuck him last night, as he deserved.
FalseSoap		#69	[-]
Posts: 30 (12/01/11 08:32 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Yup, just goes to show that those of us who are socially awkward and nerdy are less adept at life both physically and mentally. I certainly know my place! Cochran showed that it's the fault of the bullied, not the ones doing it. I was bullied as a kid too, and I think it just made me an entitled whiny brat. Cochran deserved what he got.
Constantinople		#70	[-]
Posts: 1067 (12/01/11 08:58 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Ads - The reason I wake up every morning. Remove this ad ArtieeLange wrote: Or when he loses his virginity? I forgot to mention that given John's talk about swapping sperm with "girls", I'm pretty sure he's done something with a tranny.
drinkinghotchocolate		#71	[-]
Posts: 30891 (12/01/11 09:21 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I proved this mathematically in the other thread - Cochrane flipping did nothing. He had a chance of going home, so if you use probability analysis his options gave him an identical ranking in the game. He accomplished nothing by flipping, but he would have also accomplished nothing by sticking with his old tribe.
drinkinghotchocolate		#72	[-]
Posts: 30892 (12/01/11 09:31 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Here was the math I used - if I remember the merge dynamic 12 people left, 2 had immunity, 2 had idols Not Switching -He had a 1/8 chance of pulling a purple rock and being 12th = 1/812=1.5* -1/8th chance of Jim being eliminated and being on the wrong side of a tribal domination. In this case, because of his weakness he likely would have been the last to be voted out, so we'll put him 7th here = 1/87=0.875* Then a 6/8th (75%) chance of being 6th on Savaii = .756= 4.5* His ranking = 1.5+0.875+4.5=6.875 Switching 100% chance of being 7th = 7 His ranking is 7 His ranking is slightly better not switching, but not to the immense degree that everyone thinks. He basically accomplished nothing by switching, other than eliminating the possibility of being 12th Last Edited By: drinkinghotchocolate 12/01/11 09:35 AM. Edited 2 times.
randomdumbname		#73	[-]
Posts: 214 (12/01/11 09:37 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	^Can`t say he was 100% guaranteed 7th, he could have won the IC, even though we know he probably never would have won an IC there is still somewhat of a chance. Even not winning the IC doesn`t mean he was 100% guaranteed 7th, even the fact he did get 7th doesn`t prove it was a 100% inevitable.
Constantinople		#74	[-]
Posts: 1069 (12/01/11 09:47 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	If Whitney is immune because of the immunity idol then it's (1/7) * 12 (if he picks the Purple Rock) (1/7) * 7 (if Jim does - presuming that John is the last Savaii boot) (5/7) * 6 (if an Upolu picks the rock - 6th place being the worst John could do) ((1/7)12) + ((1/7)7) + ((5/7)*6) = 7 exactly But he did lose something by flipping. 6th place is the worst case scenario for John if an Upolu picks a purple rock. But it's extremely likely that John would have gone much further than 6th since Savaii would have had bigger fish to fry. Jim, and I think Keith, said in interviews that John would have likely made F3. Moreover, Savaii's alliance has was much looser than Upolu's and would give John more room to maneuver. John already worked with Dawn and Jim to thwart Ozzy once. Arguably he would have been better off staying put with Savaii even if Jim picked the purple rock. Likely he would have been the last Savaii to go. Also, he would have at least shown that he could be trusted. Proving that you can be trusted is usually a much better argument to get people to keep you than "You owe me".
WylDawg		#75	[-]
Posts: 26967 (12/01/11 09:52 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts	As much as I like shitting on Cochran for this, I can't help hate Coach/Brandon just as much for being sanctimonious shits who acted like they were his guardian angel just a few days ago who were protecting him from bullies, knowing all too fucking well that they were just wiping their ass with him. I don't think their God would approve.
drinkinghotchocolate		#76	[-]
Posts: 30893 (12/01/11 09:53 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	All I'm saying is - it wasn't as dumb a move as people make it out to be. Certainly not in the ranks of being one of the dumbest ever
cx		#77	[-]
Posts: 2327 (12/01/11 09:54 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	drinkinghotchocolate wrote: 6/8th (75%) chance of being 6th on Savaii = .756= 4.5* This is the flaw in your logic right here.
jmucchiello		#78	[-]
Posts: 39 (12/01/11 09:56 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts	cx wrote: I hope everyone figures out now that big moves ≠ good moves. If all players ever figure this out, Survivor's ratings will drop and it will be canceled. Without fools to make big moves, there is no show.
pjadedd		#79	[-]
Posts: 12459 (12/01/11 09:58 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	I don't think the flip itself was bad. My guess is that everyone was planning on taking Cochran far, but never really relayed that to him (or not in a way he believed; it makes sense that he wouldn't considering everyone basically told him he should go to RI when Ozzy told the group to vote him out). I'll also give him leeway on not knowing just how tight the Upolu alliance was. Maybe he thought he could make a move at seven. And, if he didn't flip and went out to the rock, he would've definitely looked like an ass. My problem is the lack of anything being done after he flipped. What was he doing between flipping and getting voted out? Last night, "um, OK, guys, I know I'm supposed to be next, but please spare me." Both he and Edna are morons. They knew they were on the bottom of the totem pole and it appears that neither really tried to switch it up until last night. I get not working with the enemy, but either or both of them could've put out feelers. Play on Coach's belief that taking the two of them would be best for him. I actually don't think the flip itself was bad. Cochran should've been in a great spot. You have an alliance of 6 (with one person knowing she is 6th) and being 7th gives you room to try and break things up. I'm sure everyone stupidly believes they'll be in the final 3, but there appeared to be no follow through after the flip, which I think is even dumber than the flip itself.
drinkinghotchocolate		#80	[-]
Posts: 30894 (12/01/11 09:58 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts	Ads - The reason I wake up every morning. Remove this ad cx wrote: drinkinghotchocolate wrote: 6/8th (75%) chance of being 6th on Savaii = .756= 4.5* This is the flaw in your logic right here. I'm arguing from his perspective - this is what he thought was the case Another good point someone made on the last thread is, he basically guarenteed himself a spot on All Stars or a future season by switching, so thats another argument to support the move he made

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Where all the Cochran defenders hiding? I thought him flipping was genius?