Family Final Four in Survivor Speculation Forum

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Family Final Four

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fat little fingers

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Posts: 7161

(11/22/11 01:52 PM)

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LV:
Did anyone else notice how many references there were to "the family" and "father" tonight?

The episode opened with Cochran telling us that he was staying close to the Father because he knew that to do otherwise would be death,

This is two episodes in which we see Cochran mimicking Coach. Mimicking is a good way to hide.

We see real E behavior by Cochran in how the others treat him.

No one seems threatened by his presence.

He does Coach-chi on the beach, and yet, Albert includes him in rebellion talks, plays chess with him, and even warns him that Coach plans to boot him at F-7..

Sophie, too, seems unconcerned that he stands there while she talks strategy with Albert.

Then we see Cochran sitting next to Brandon's hammock, while Brandon talks to Coach about seeing Albert talk to Whitney.

Everyone seems to think he is their friend and no threat.

There is no question that he is an E and not a Son in Upolu.

LV:
Rick (I keep forgetting about him)

In the show, he's a nonentity. In reality, it's hard to understand his place in the Family because we have so little to go on.

Whitney said he's not even playing the game.

That doesn't sound Son-like. Sons are competitive.

Rick still seems an E to me.

He's the non-competitive, obedient member of the core alliance.

F: Coach

S: Albert Brandon

D: Sophie, Edna

E: Cochran Rick

Too many Es on my chart!

P.S.: The RI Family

Ozzy: "I'll cook you a nice meal and send you on your way."

Ozzy: Father. He provides and punishes. Lol.

Beefcake

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(11/24/11 05:50 AM)

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Did anyone count how many "family" references there were on the Recrap? Or how many times Coach was called "father"? I gave up trying. (And there was at least one "mom" for Dawn)

After that epi, I think Cochrane is definitely a S, not an E. I think that if we had seen more of the bullying that Cochran got from Ozzy and Keith, it would have been more obvious early on. He wasn't the lovable E, he was the baby brother who got picked on and tried to survive by being the jokester. (I'm putting Rick in the E spot based on his age & appearance, since we still don't know anything about him. He kind of reminds me of Butch from Amazon).

F: Coach
M:
S: Albert (rebellious eldest), Brandon (troubled middle child), Cochran (lovable baby)
D: Sophie, Edna (daddy's little girl)
E: Rick

If Dawn is the returnee from RI, she might be able to survive in the M role; the siblings (including Whitney and Ozzy) will just be quickly re-slaughtered. I'm sticking with my Coach-Dawn-Cochran Final 3 prediction.

birdlady

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(11/24/11 08:50 AM)

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Well, Benjamin has Cochran as Hercules, so we know he's lying... Did we see Cochran acting S with anyone other than him? Benjamin is such a bad manipulative misogynist F, everyone else gets bent the longer they stay around him.

I don't know. Still astoundingly little Rick and Sophie. Family Final Four should be Benjamin/Albert/Edna/Rick, but Ithink Benjamin is going to shift them into band of bros for the finals - Benjamin/Albert/Brandon/Sophie.

F Benjamin
M
S Albert, Brandon, Sophie
D Edna
E Cochran, ?Rick

Phoenix1269

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(11/24/11 10:40 PM)

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Yay! Single parent season!!!!!

It has been happening more and more in recent years. I wonder if this is reflective of how a lot of the younger players have actually expereinced family

Anyways... who we have left:
Dad - Coach
M-
S - Albert, Brandon
D - Sophie, Edna
E - Rick, Cochran

RI
M - Dawn
D -Whitney
S - Ozzy (Prodigal Son)

I think it is safe to say that Dawn and Whitney will not make it back. Ozzy's edit is just SCREAMING returnee to me lately.

I maintain that Cochran is an E, I don't see the baby brother thing (to me, Jud/Fabio was the quintessential baby brother) - which means, with 2 E's... either Rick or Cochran will be next to go. I'll go with Cochran leaving as Rick has proven himself to F-Coach already by voting off Mikayla.

I think Brandon will be going soon too... F-Coach already knows he's a loose wire and has talked about getting rid of him, i think he will be gone before the NuFF5.

I also suspect that Albert might not make it simply because he's been "going against the family" and F-Coach has stated, repeatedly in some fashion or other, that it's death to go against the family.

My NuFF5 (Final 4 + RI returnee)

Father - Coach
Son - Ozzy
Daughters - Edna, Sophie
Eccentric - Rick

As for Coach's chances... well, single parents generally do not fair very well, they don't make it to the F2/F3 very often, but when they do, they tend to win (3 out of 4). HOWEVER single FATHERS make it to the end more often than single mothers...

<Pulled from page 79 & updated>

60% of the time the single parent families are headed by Moms (S7, S11, S13, S15, S16, S21)
the remaining 40% are dads (S6, S10, S19, S22).

What is really interesting is that for the single mom seasons - the moms make the finals only 17% of the time (1 in 6), where single dads have made the final 75% of the time (3 of 4)!!!

So, i would say it is likely for Coach to make the finals, but he only stands a 50-50 chance of winning. If he is viewed as a stable, true father like Tom and Rob, he will win. If he is viewed as an eccecntric, abusive, ineffective father (like Russell) he will lose.

I am most interested in Ozzy's edit as he is the most edited to be like the "Prodigal Son"... he left his family to find his own way, he wasted some of his opportunities (thru poor choices and wanton living) then tries to work it out thru honest work but due to circumstances beyond his control was forced to return home, even though he knew he had no right to be there. In the parable, the father welcomes his son home and forgives, rejoices and celebrates, even though the older brother is mad and jealous about it. The father says "it is right to celebrate as your brother was 'dead' and is now alive again, he was lost, but now he is found".

fat little fingers

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Posts: 7173

(11/25/11 11:47 AM)

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The fascinating thing is, someone is returning from RI.

This is the season when RI may play a real factor in the final outcome.

Right now we have:

Whitney, who I see as a non-factor Daughter and out like the Siblings before her.

Dawn, who is definitely Mother by her own definition and those around her.

Ozzy, who has shown both leadership, self-sacrifice, and providing, which are Father traits, and brotherly alliances, competitiveness, and distraction by the opposite sex, which are Sibling traits.

Cochran makes sense as the next person booted:

As a Son, this would be his time.

As an Eccentric, he would be chosen over the much less controversial Rick. Successful Eccentrics should not be controversial!

Cochran would then face either Dawn or Ozzy, which would logically mean he's out.

The situation would be:

Father: Coach

Mother: none

Daughters: Edna, Sophie

Sons: Albert, Brandon,

Eccentric: Rick

Mother: Dawn*(RI)

Son: Ozzy*(RI)

* only one of the two.

Ozzy:

In this situation, Ozzy's position as a Son looks wrong.

But, two Fathers could not survive either, so Ozzy would have to win all his challenges to survive.

Dawn:

A Dawn survival would make this FF-6 much more stable.

But, we haven't seen any Family connection between Dawn and the Upolu Family.

We've seen a Brotherly connection between Ozzy and Coach, but not to the Upolu Family itself.

Cochran:

We have seen a much stronger Family connection between Cochran and the Upolus. His return would give him Family connections that could allow for some survival as the Family disintegrates.

One more to RI:

But, there will be one more person sent to RI. The RI returnee will be coming back to join the remaining 4.

My guess is Albert will be that final person sent to RI if story logic holds up.

So a possible Family Final Five of :

Father: Coach

Mother: Dawn*

Sisters: Edna, Sophie

Brothers: Brandon (one of: Albert, Cochran, or Ozzy *)

Eccentric: Rick

*Only one of these can survive to the FF5, logically.

Dawn would be a Mother, but not of the Upolus. Her survival to FF4 would be unlikely.

Albert would be right back in the majority that first booted him.

His survival to FF4 would depend on someone like Sophie deciding that this was the time to rebel against father Coach.

Cochran would be in a similar position as Albert and would be kept by someone using him as a weapon to win.

Ozzy, as I said, would simply need to continue to win his challenges to survive to the Final vote and would never be part of an FF4.

Lady V

FF4 predictions

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Posts: 830

(11/30/11 11:49 PM)

Well, we are at F6, and just lost our extra E, so FF4 rides again! :)

F Coach

S Brandon, Albert

D Sophie, Edna

E Rick

1) The F6 will contain an E, an F, an M, and some kids. (It has 14 of 22 seasons)
INCORRECT. No M this time. We have a single parent season, in which case:

1a) Phoenix's research found that if the F6 contains only one parent, that parent is unlikely to win (parent has lost in 70% of such seasons--Sandra, Tom, and Boston Rob S22 are the exceptions) -- and is likely to be voted out just before the final (at F2 or F3 60% of the time).

WE SHALL SEE!

2) F4 will not contain two people with the same role. (It has not 15 of 22)

WE SHALL SEE!

3) There will not be 2 Fs or 2Ms in the F6 (There has not been in 19 of 22). (In the odd situation where there are two Ms or two Fs, one will be a failed M or F.)
CORRECT.

4) The F2 will not be two dads nor two moms. (The F2 has never been two dads nor two moms.)
CORRECT.

5) The F2 generally will not be two kids. (The F2 have been two kids only 5 of 22) However, in the rare case the F2 is two kids, at least one will be an "unusual" child with strong "adult" (leader) tendencies.
WE SHALL SEE.

6) The winner will not be E. (The winner has never been an E.)
WE SHALL SEE.

7) If a parent is in the F2 with a non-parent, the parent will win. (7 times parent-nonparent has been in F2; 6 times the parent has won...). Because this is a single parent season, this one doesn't apply (see #1)
n/a

Tyran Amiros

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Posts: 268

(12/01/11 03:41 PM)

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One correction to Phoenix's work: In S10, we had an M in Caryn that season who was voted off at F5.

fat little fingers

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Posts: 7205

(12/01/11 05:26 PM)

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LV:
Well, we are at F6, and just lost our extra E, so FF4 rides again! :)

F Coach
S Brandon, Albert
D Sophie, Edna
E Rick

But, remember, we have Ozzy and Cochran sitting at Redemption Island!

These twists are hell on Families.

FallenTorch.fantasygamescen...

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Posts: 419

(12/01/11 05:29 PM)

Tyran Amiros wrote:
One correction to Phoenix's work: In S10, we had an M in Caryn that season who was voted off at F5.

Was Caryn a Mom or an E? She had great loyalty to just Tom and seemed pretty cut off from the rest of the family. She's very much like an older Edna this season.

Phoenix1269

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(12/01/11 06:45 PM)

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Tyran Amiros wrote:
One correction to Phoenix's work: In S10, we had an M in Caryn that season who was voted off at F5.

no correction is needed.

This theory is based solely on FF4, and in addition i did mention this very thing in the original post (click here)

and what is funny, FT, I always thought Caryn was an E also, I mentioned that in my original post too! LOL

fat little fingers

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(12/01/11 07:30 PM)

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Caryn was a bit of an oddball, that's for sure.

Tyran Amiros

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Posts: 269

(12/01/11 10:40 PM)

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Sorry Phoenix, I missed that you were only looking at Final 4--thought you were talking about Final 6.

It looks like the Palau discussion was eaten in the Great Board Crash a few years ago, but I think I remember we decided Caryn was an M. Not the most successful M, but she was a stereotypical Jewish Mother with the worrying about the conditions at the beach and everything, and she and Tom had the "older folks watching out for each other" against the kids in one episode that was very much about parents keeping the kids in line.

I do remember that Janu was pretty clearly an E (just look at her epiphany yoga scene on pre-Exile Island).

Lady V

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Posts: 831

(12/02/11 04:30 AM)

What Phoenix said about Caryn: " ** S10 is the least dysfunctional of the single parent seasons. I think its because EM Caryn went home at F5. I always felt that Caryn was an E, but when i looked back, I see many thought she was an M. "

What Kernel Q said about Caryn (I miss KQ!): "...on past seasons, that the F4 will be F,M,S,D, which means Tom will be there and Caryn will be there, either Ian or Gregg, and either Jenn or Katie (or Steph if she is able to pull it out, which seems unlikely, but then, that could be part of the storyline, too)."

I had her down as an E, like Phoenix. But, yeah, she left before F4. Janu was definitely an E.

FFF: "

But, remember, we have Ozzy and Cochran sitting at Redemption Island!

These twists are hell on Families.

That's for sure!!! And, again, SO MANY REFERENCES TO FAMILIES! I mean...seriously...if one of them says "family final four" I'm going to... I don't know what!

Okay...up too late...ate mocha chocolate cookies before bed, and now... a w a k e!!!!!!

Beefcake

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(12/02/11 07:01 AM)

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Now that all the interesting players are gone, I'm bored.

I expect this season to be even more disappointing than Gabon.

Lady V

F5

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Posts: 832

(12/08/11 12:14 AM)

Well...

F Coach

S Brandon, Albert

D Sophie

E Rick

...and Ozzy and Edna at RI.

A son or daughter should go next according to FF4, as the case may be, when the RI person comes back. Could Edna really beat Ozzy? The previews make it look that way. I can't imagine she wouldn't be the first one voted out at F5 or F4, unless she wins immunity--her questioning of father and sibs integrity was strident. Interesting Coach-Ozzy alliance (father-son). Brandon and Edna continuing to crack under the stress. (Wasn't Edna brought in to the alliance 6th? I can't understand why she would be surprised to be sent home 6th.) And then we have a hint that Albert is just putting on a show when it comes to integrity, and that Brandon's integrity will be tested (foreshadowing in conversation with his brother).

Next week (AGAIN!) I will be away from Survivor--gasp--but I should be able to stream next week's ep in advance of the finale, which I assume will be a week from Sunday? Anyone know? So, next Weds. we're down to F4 except the RI person arrives, so F5 again, then F4, then F3? Someday we will have F2 again. I miss the F2s!

So...

F Coach

S: Albert

D: Sophie

E Rick

Coach more than likely will not win (single parent loses 70% of the time if in F4); Rick won't win as the E. That leaves the sibs... Of the four, though, I think Coach is the most deserving. But if Ozzy comes back and makes it to the final tribal, he will naturally be impossible to beat.

fat little fingers

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Posts: 7250

(12/08/11 06:08 AM)

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Now that all the interesting players are gone, I'm bored.

I expect this season to be even more disappointing than Gabon.

Yes, we can immediately see why the edit invested so much into Cochran's story.

Beefcake

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Posts: 12507

(12/08/11 07:54 AM)

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fat little fingers wrote:
Now that all the interesting players are gone, I'm bored.

I expect this season to be even more disappointing than Gabon.
Yes, we can immediately see why the edit invested so much into Cochran's story.

And Dawn. And Jim. Hell, Papa Bear had more character development than Rick, Sophie or Albert. I now find myself rooting for Ozzy, which makes me a little sick to my stomach.

I agree on the family alignment. And I don't see how Coach can possibly win. I also don't see how Coach can possibly think he is going to win. Is he intentionally throwing the game? That's the only explanation I can come up with.

birdlady

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(12/08/11 09:36 AM)

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