S24 - Episode 11 - Solving Riddles in MESS Hall Tribal Council Forum

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S24 - Episode 11 - Solving Riddles

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Outfrontgirl		#141	[-]
Posts: 1371 04/25/12 01:06 AM MESS member More Recent Posts	rattatouillelavender wrote: and on a revote, after realizing he doesn't have the idol, wouldn't they vote Troy out then? thats what I would do. But maybe he'd have Kat and Christina on his side but that would only make two votes and Troy couldn't vote for anyone. Not if Troy has fewer votes than the other split vote target. Then they could only vote for one of the two who were tied on the revote. Troy would be able to vote; only the 2 could not vote. For example, In the Jay vote, Kim switched a couple votes off Troyzan and put them on Jay. If she did that again, only with Tarzan, and it did go 3-3-2, they would revote between Kim and Tarzan and Troyzan could vote. In a situation like that, being halfway to a Kim boot, the others just might do it if they feel she is not taking them to the end. There is no other reason to keep a player as good as Kim other than she is helping you or you're very serious about your pact with her. At this point, the women don't need help any more. They would be 5-2 worst case scenario. The weak spot here is Tarzan is in the same position as he has been. He protects himself by not voting with the last other man, instead throws his vote at Troyzan. However, he got into a 4-4 tiebreaker where it was Troyzan vs. Kim, Tarzan might very well switch his vote to Kim, as he then knows he is safe. I don't expect anyone to play very smart here though. Kim seems to the only one really running the numbers.
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sunflower101		#142	[-]
Posts: 7080 04/25/12 01:23 AM More Recent Posts	crocophile wrote: I think he's toast because he's trying to make this 4 person alliance including Kat and Sabrina. We know with Kat it is post IC since she is a bit greasy. Last week he was defiant after he won the IN. Seems to me an act of desperation this week. It's possible the women buy the Hidden Idol and they fumble the vote, or maybe he really does have an HI. I think the person booted is most likely one of Troy, Tarzan, or Christina (depending on who wins immunity and how much Tarzan is seen as a goat or not). However, remember when Kim made that final 4 alliance with Troy/Jay? She made sure to include Chelsea in it.It's possible they have multiple final 3 deals to ensure nobody will turn on them. If the women did start to compare notes that would be a reason to flip with Troy to take out Kim/Chelsea, etc. That could be what they are considering in their conversation with Troy. Maybe Kim makes a misstep and people figure out she wants goats with her in the final 3 (Tarzan/Christina, etc.). I don't think this outcome is likely to happen but I wouldn't rule it completely out. This could easily explain why Kat or some of the other women might not be happy. So far Kim has been shown to have a final 3 with Sabrina and she had a final 4 with Troy/Jay. It's very possible she has several others.
sunflower101		#143	[-]
Posts: 7080 04/25/12 01:32 AM More Recent Posts	survivorgirl22 wrote: I mentioned this in the other thread but he keeps mentioning that it was 10 minutes before tribal and at that time she was only going to give 3 votes to Jay..I personally thought he was trying to imply production helping her out there/rigging since he had been complaining about production in his previous tweets.I definitely don't think that myself but that's what I thought he meant when he tweeted that.But we'll see soon enough,you could be right that he lasts a little while longer. I think Troy is most likely is gone in the next couple of episodes. However, if Troy did manage to make the end game all on his own (immunity wins) he still likely wouldn't like the women much. I think it was in the spoilers thread there was also some trip Troy took with Chelsea/Kat. So he is on good terms with at least a couple of the women. Which obviously, might not mean anything because people become friends who weren't aligned all the time once the show is over.
rattatouillelavender		#144	[-]
Posts: 236 04/25/12 01:50 AM More Recent Posts	yeah but after watching the show, he thinks all of the women are cocky and arrogant, so I guess he still hates them to a certain extent lol I think though that something crazy happens at the TC, I dont see him going quietly.
the Grave Robber		#145	[-]
Posts: 40 04/25/12 11:36 AM More Recent Posts	Methinks Troy does not win immunity, and there are 2 challenges. You might think Troy would only be scrambling if he did not win immunity. You'd also think that if he did scramble, that would be the same as telling that he did not really have the HII; which would be a big blunder if his scrambling is OTT. However, even if he does have the HII, or does win immunity, he really has to scramble to some extent when he has the opportunity. He knows that he is toast at some point, and needs some allies. And from the little we've seen, his scrambling is pretty low key, by Troyzan standards. So, when the 2 power players, Kim with her sidekick Chelsea (who can't win this year) are off on reward, Troy gets a chance to find a crack in Kim's armor. He also has time to look for the HII, if there is one, but he can't be seen looking for it, or it will give him away as not having previously found it. Time for Troy to play some serious poker. IMHO, he needs to try to stir up a vote against one of the girls, and when that most likely fails, cast his vote for Tarzan, hoping Kim splits the votes, and Gregg goes home. The vote at tribal doesn't necessarily have to be 4-4. If Troy can get one of the girls, most likely Christina, to vote for Gregg, then he could survive as the vote would 4-3-1 or 5-3 Gregg. However, it's all a long shot, and I also think Troy is a bit toasty.
rattatouillelavender		#146	[-]
Posts: 236 04/25/12 01:23 PM More Recent Posts	What I think will happen (and there's a strong chance of this) is that Troy doesn't win immunity. During the reward Kim Chelsea and Alicia go on the trip together. Kat is upset and so is Sabrina. Troy tries to get into Kat's head by saying she needs to wake up and realize that the women aren't taking her to the end and that she needs to make a move. Christina is open to the possibility only if someone else is. Sabrina is just humoring Troy because she literally think she's safe in her own alliance which is a mistake that she'll find out sometime soon. Troy after the immunity challenge, pulls Kat aside and tells her that he has an idol (even though he doesn't) and that she needs to reconsider who she votes for. He tells her to vote for Tarzan because just like before she assumes Kim will want to split the vote on Troy and Tarzan. Kim, Chelsea, and Tarzan vote for Troy, while Troy, Alicia, Christina, and Sabrina vote for Tarzan to split the vote. Kat then decides to vote for Tarzan changing her mind. Kim thought Kat was with them, then she's stunned as Tarzan goes and joins the jury. That is the ultimate doubt for Kim, can she rebound from that? While Troy lives to see another day. OR it is just a 4-3-1 vote and Troy or someone else throws away a vote. I dont know, either way I think Tarzan will go home.
survivorgirl22		#147	[-]
Posts: 8168 04/25/12 01:45 PM More Recent Posts	if Kim goes on the reward picnic she will figure out if there's another idol. A clue for another idol will be at the picnic or not.if there is no clue at the picnic Kim should know that Troy is lying if he attempts that.
FistOLegend		#148	[-]
Posts: 2730 04/25/12 01:55 PM More Recent Posts	I don't think Troy will be able to sway anyone by claiming to have an idol, they'd want to see it.
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rattatouillelavender		#149	[-]
Posts: 236 04/25/12 02:08 PM More Recent Posts	yeah but it looks like he is playing off of Kat's naivete and could convince her to flip. But Kim was so focused on the food at the auction, she acted as if she didn't realize there would be an advantage, and Troy did. So maybe Kim just won't even realize it and focus on food again.
survivorgirl22		#150	[-]
Posts: 8168 04/25/12 02:11 PM More Recent Posts	Kim posted her slip n slide pic on fb,both Chelsea and Kat commented that that was one of the best pics/days ever,I doubt anyone flips.
rattatouillelavender		#151	[-]
Posts: 236 04/25/12 02:13 PM More Recent Posts	that could mean anything though, maybe the reward was amazing or maybe something happened that was fun. Since they're cool with Troy I doubt they'd say that was the best day ever to make fun of him..but I guess not. I'm just trying to put it all together.
survivorgirl22		#152	[-]
Posts: 8168 04/25/12 02:15 PM More Recent Posts	I didn't mean they were making fun of Troy.I mean I don't think that Kat would flip on the women at all..
rattatouillelavender		#153	[-]
Posts: 236 04/25/12 02:16 PM More Recent Posts	I guess i'm just trying to hold onto the fact that the obvious doesn't happen. But I guess it is predictable like everyone thought.
juicyfruit		#154	[-]
Posts: 2515 04/25/12 02:29 PM More Recent Posts	They could be talking about the challenge, it looks like either Chelsea or Kat won and it also looks fun. No way to know what it means, if it means anything, until the episode airs.
survivorgirl22		#155	[-]
Posts: 8168 04/25/12 02:50 PM More Recent Posts	Chelsea vs Kat is actually the second round.Final round was Chelsea vs Kim based on vidcaps.
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S24 - Episode 11 - Solving Riddles