Erik would definitely be blindsided if he was voted out, but what would be Catalie's motivation to vote out Erik? Jason is not only more of an immunity threat, but on top of that, according to Eliza, Catalie and Alexis apparently don't like him very much. On the other hand, Catalie, and especially Alexis, are apparently very close to Erik and have spent time hanging out with him after the show. I really can't imagine them targeting him over Jason. It makes no sense. I think what happens is they make Jason think they're voting out James, but then they vote Jason out instead, and that's how Jason is "blindsided".