Would have been way smarter to target Parv or Cerie, but if she does, the fans are in control.
So that would be a "better the devil you know" scenario. Remember Amanda did not make the alliance with Nat and Alexis, Parvati did. BUT in the scenario you just laid out: Erik with immunity, Amanda as target but somehow knowing she's the target, why on earth would she pick Alexis over Natalie as the boot? Alexis is injured which puts her at a disadvantage to win other immunities. From the looks of the vidcaps, maybe Natalie comes pretty close to winning. And I'm still not sure why everyone is so sure Alexis is the one to get blindsided, why NOT Natalie? The only proof we have of how far into the game she gets is the rumor that she makes the family visit.