It seemed that Alexis was a lock for Cirie, based on the Ponderosa clip. She said that she wanted Cirie to win.
And apparently from Natalie & Cirie's interviews, Cirie would have won by a landslide...although I'm not sure about it.

I just think the F2, kind of sucked, since it seems illogical with the whole 4-4 tie. (Yeah I keep on complaining about it...I think its incredibly stupid). If they just started the jury with Jason I would have been okay with it. Getting screwed by a twist is one thing. Getting screwed by a twist that makes no sense sucks even more. Cirie would have aligned with Natalie had she known it was a F2. Its hard because strategy for F2 and F3 are a lot different.