I don't think Paul is the Mole. I doubt they'd show the Mole making a coalition and having his partner go home. It seems too easy.
Ultimately, the Mole has to sabotage and send people home, but it would seem that having the Mole actively form an alliance would be tantamount to the show picking a player to saddle with a disadvantage (which would be unfair). Of course, if the alliance is devised and formed by someone else (unwittingly) with the Mole, that's a risk that all the non-Moles face.
