So when last we saw the Mole we had one of the stranger episodes I've seen in the whole history of the show. One mission was a total success and the other was an over-the-top ridiculous failure. Very tough for truly figuring out what's going on in terms of who the Mole is.
First there was a challenge that at the outset appeared completely impossible to me - the "All For One" challenge. The group dynamic seemed to be lacking, but somehow they all find a way to trust each other enough to get out of the cold, put $25k in the pot and have nobody leave with an exemption. Obviously this includes the Mole so it would seem pretty apparent that the Mole did not seek to work in this task (at least directly). Craig plays the obvious medical reason as rationale for going first. This does go nicely with his power position later if he is the Mole but if the players in the game even smell set up I'm not sure I can buy that. More on that in a bit. Clay expresses distrust first, joined by Mark. Mark gives it up relatively easily while Clay lingers a bit more before letting him go.
With Kristen's turn, Clay brings out trust concerns again and seems to be driving that. It should be noted that Kristen's pattern of operating does seem to implicitly include genuine trust in Clay being a player in the game - a bone I can through to the ClayFomo's out there. Alex decides to lean against the gate the entire time it should be noted. He parries a little with Mark. Nicole seems in a holding pattern. Clay hops into the sleeping bag then commences a round of votes for Kristen and she's free.
Paul makes his vow and Mark throws it back at him. Clay starts polling the votes again, Mark relents, Paul fakes at the key and is free.
Clay polls everyone again as Mark appears obstinate then Clay more or less elects to go ahead and leave with everyone's approval. I will saying that going 4th out of 7th actually does seem like it would be in line with a Mole cover.
Nicole hasn't done much in this challenge to rock the boat actually. Mark senses her finally being honest about something and they let her go.
Alex offers to do it either way (go before Mark or after him). Mark allows Alex to go. Then Mark goes and that's the mission. Very tough to get a real read on Mole activity outside of Clay and to a lesser extent Mark. Alex I have to say seemed actually the most helpful in facilitating the task to be honest.
So there's success and a lack of clarity so far. As a random aside Argentina has quite the graffiti problem, doesn't it? Not sure if there were
any hidden clues buried in there but there was a ton of stuff to look at from the Jaime outside the jail to all the characters in the cell behind them (Most
noticable was the CRG in the background - it can be most clearly seen immediately after Nicole says "It's Just A Game" to Mark.
So we're into the vans and Paul and Clay mix it up. Doesn't really seem to pertain to game play though I guess if you REALLY wanna stretch it it
may be considered interesting that Clay through money at Paul and then those bills (perhaps not the same ones though) were showed prominently at the beginning
of the next challenge. But they were drinking those "sour" drinks in Chile and Paul had a lemon - I mean I love looking for hidden clues too but
even I drive myself a bit crazy with it now and again The
weird thing probably is that he had two 5 notes there - not sure why two would be needed.
Anyhow, it is pretty weird that Jon does call on Craig first and he immediately mentions an exemption. It does fall in line with the idea that the producers sometimes specifically want to find ways to get the Mole into a desired position in the game. It goes against, however, my standard understanding than the host doesn't know who the Mole is, mainly to keep them from accidentally giving something away.
Craig seemed tickled and laughed like a pleasantly surprised man when told he was being put in charge of the task. Btw I don't there's a clue in
the sign "Jon's Rentals Everything A Traveler Needs" but maybe there is so I point out the exact signage for you folks
The reaction to the costumes does seem pretty immediate. Paul is shown muttering first after Craig announces the costume choices but Nicole is the first that really complains loudly. Paul and Mark both chime in (Paul is shown finding Mark suspect). Mark and Kristen both say opt out at amount the same time, then Paul, then Nicole. Clay didn't say anything but uses a seemingly favorite phrase of "is the Mole at work". Alex is the only one to try on the costume. Anyhow they all give up before even starting which I'm pretty sure is a first in the show and frankly was very disappointing. Have to throw a negative mark against the casting if something like that can happen so easily.
Alex hints that there may have been some sort of table-turning possibility at some point in the challenge that they may not have considered. The fact that Jon and Craig are shown half-way bolsters this idea but we're never clued in. (But dang if we don't see even more graffiti this time on the bridge where Craig is). Oh and Craig throws some suspicion to Mark in his confessional.
Only really notable thing at dinner was the fact that Nicole did seem dismissive of the $ lost in that challenge but that didn't seem a huge deal to me.
Anyhow on to the rankings.
7) Well not really 7) anymore. Kristen. Really not a surprise for me for once as this frees up a whopping 0.2% in terms of percentages to be allotted. I found her very stunning though she was clearly a player every step of the way. The two most notable things is that she went totally for one person as the Mole, seemed to have kind of faith in Clay to make me believe she was not targeting him as the Mole and likewise in her comments earlier in the episode mentioning that she thought Nicole was spreading her answers around clearly didn't think Nicole was the Mole either.
6) Alex. The folks with the very loose $ tallies for Alex will be very disappointed with this ranking I'm sure, but really he didn't do anything Molish at all in this episode. He literally gave no resistance in the All For One challenge at all - the only way this could be remotely considered sabotage would be if you bought into the idea that he was certain someone would take the exemption, but I don't really see that. In the 2nd challenge he even put the costume on. As for the prior episodes. He was the first jump at a bag which was the toughest spot, though it does seem reasonable that he would think he was jumping for cash, so I can see that $10k counting. I really feel like EVERYONE failed on the beach mission so I can't give him that. I don't feel he stood out anymore than others in the soccer challenge from what was shown to credit those $ strictly to him. The pigs challenge did show him breaking some with poor launches but they still bagged most of the them (more than I really would expect really). It's possible he took advantage of Nicole's doublespeaking in the luge challenge which would be $12k more to the bad. The clothing challenge was successful. He did nothing Molish in the gold brick climb challenge. He cost $2k in the Who said what challenge. It just doesn't add up to the Mole for me. It adds up to a player, quite possibly a player on the track of the Mole. Alex is not the Mole. Mole probabilty 0.2%
5) Paul. The interesting thing about Paul is that he really only seems to stir things up outside of the challenges, not so much during them. It would seem
possibly Molish that he wouldn't do the camel costume with Nicole as that didn't seem undoable. I'll throw in here a couple of really random
thoughts that could be "clues" to Paul. All the "Ps" that Jon said in his speech during the pig challenge may have been a clue I guess.
And lemons are sour and that could be a hint from those sour drinks they were drinking in Chile. But really, I just don't see enough from him. Paul is
not the Mole. Mole probability 0.5%
4) Craig. If he's the Mole this episode was very simple. Do nothing in task one and use the medical stuff as a pretext to get out and possibly let them mess themselves up. Next, make sure you're the decision maker in the next task and make it impossible to do. That just seems over the top simple and most of the "sabotage" he would've been doing throughout this thing was more reflective of his physical conditioning than sabotage. Craig ain't the Mole. Mole probability 3.2%
3) Clay. This is where it gets interesting. I have a funny feeling that if he really is the Mole at the end of this then Mark will end up the winner and
that if Mark ends up the Mole at the end of this, then Clay will end up the winner. They seem to follow each other's lead a lot and while it would seem a
bit crazy to be in a coalition with the Mole, it isn't inconceivable if you are 100% convinced that person is the Mole and you work to function in a way
that gives them cover. Anyhow, back to Clay. Clay seemed most suspicious in the prison challenge. Maybe he tried and failed to sabotage (if he's the
Mole, he surely has more a track record of failed sabotage than actual sabotage that's for sure). He really seemed to take the lead early in trying to
prolong the challenge in terms of stirring up reasons not to let people get the key. The sleeping bag thing seemed out of place in a way, since it looks like
they actually broke out in the minimum amount of time. Perhaps he was convinced that Mark would take the exemption and thus he need not arouse suspicion by
sticking around the challenge. Perhaps he knew that nobody would take the exemption and didn't think he'd be able to get away with making such a move
himself. In the 2nd challenge he didn't really seem to join the rebellion though he actively through some Mole suspicion to the Craig in a conversation
with another player. He really has been heavy with phrases in his confessional too like "I could be in a coalition with the Mole right now" and
"Is the Mole at work here?". Seems actually like a fun way for the Mole to throw the audience off. I'm bumping his percentage up this week
mainly because I think he's truly in the top 3 and deserves the percentage that goes with that. But Clay's not the Mole at least as long as my
original pick is in the mix . 25% Mole
Probability
2) Mark. This rank is almost nominal at this point, but strictly speaking the 2 outcomes were both so uniform that even the Clay bump up may seem like a bit much. Other than Clay, Mark certainly was the most actively suspicious in the Prison challenge. He really does moan a lot doesn't he? Now strictly speaking other than trying to sew dissent, I'm sure to what degree the Mole had in that challenge. Obviously it was too "over the top" for the Mole to take that exemption. Perhaps by going last and not taking the exemption, Mark as Mole presumably would be trying to build his credibility back up to enable future damage down the road. As for the 2nd challenge, it does seem like he was the ringleader in getting them to not do the challenge as much as anyone, I don't think that's inaccurate at all. But still, I can't roll with it. Mark is not the Mole. Mole probability 35%
1) Yup still Nicole. She really does not make it easy to keep her here at #1, but Nicole is still here nonetheless albeit with a lower percentage. In the prison challenge, she barely did anything suspicious. She did seem to weakly challenge Kristen a little, but really that's about it. Now in looking at the road challenge, she was the first to be loud complaining about the outfits, that is true. And strictly speaking, I think that that making the trip in the time allotted in that costume wasn't impossible. So there is to a very small degree an element that can be considered sabotage, at least in the sense that the llama outfit seemed like the most likely to make it all the way of the three. Still, that's really pretty weak sabotage but perhaps everyone just made the Mole's job easy by complaining and taking their marbles and going home. I'm hoping she shows me a little something next week. And right now I'll still say that Nicole IS the Mole. Mole probabilty 36.1%
So there you go folks :)
I'll really try and do a quiz matching excercise this week, I swear!
-QG
