Please kindly shut the fuck up and go back to playing Candy Land.
Zach was absolutely correct in not sending Daniele home.
Daniele and Dick were the only 2 people in the game that Zach could beat in a F2 matchup. If he eliminates Dani, he's in a scenario where if Eric or Jessica win the PoV, they will vote out either Dani or Dick, leaving Zach with no way to win the game. It'd be a 50/50 scenario. If E/J win veto, he has a 0/3 chance of winnning the game. If D/Z win, he has a 66% chance of winning. Averages out to 33%
Now take what he actually did. He voted out Eric, knowing that D/D were going to make a "deal" with Jameka, a player who they are absolutely scared to death of in the F2. And given D/D's low opinion of his Jury chances, Zach has a good shot at being dragged to the F3 if the Donatos win F4 HoH and PoV. The F4 scenarios are more complicated, since his game isn't over if a D is voted out.
Jameka wins HoH- If D/D win veto - 0% chance of winning the F2. J/Z win veto- 66% chance of winning the F2.
Zach wins HoH- If D/D win veto -33% chance of winning. J/Z - 66% chance.
Dani wins HoH- If D/D win veto - 33% chance of winning. J/Z - 66% chance. (From Zach's perspective, he thinks there is no way D/D will take Jameka to the F3.)
Leaving Zach with a 44% chance of winning the game. Even if Dick would vote out Zach over Jameka (with a Dani HoH and D/D veto), Zach still has a 38% shot at winning. Either scenario puts him in better shape to win the game than leaving Eric in and Dani out.
Zach was absolutely correct in not sending Daniele home.
Daniele and Dick were the only 2 people in the game that Zach could beat in a F2 matchup. If he eliminates Dani, he's in a scenario where if Eric or Jessica win the PoV, they will vote out either Dani or Dick, leaving Zach with no way to win the game. It'd be a 50/50 scenario. If E/J win veto, he has a 0/3 chance of winnning the game. If D/Z win, he has a 66% chance of winning. Averages out to 33%
Now take what he actually did. He voted out Eric, knowing that D/D were going to make a "deal" with Jameka, a player who they are absolutely scared to death of in the F2. And given D/D's low opinion of his Jury chances, Zach has a good shot at being dragged to the F3 if the Donatos win F4 HoH and PoV. The F4 scenarios are more complicated, since his game isn't over if a D is voted out.
Jameka wins HoH- If D/D win veto - 0% chance of winning the F2. J/Z win veto- 66% chance of winning the F2.
Zach wins HoH- If D/D win veto -33% chance of winning. J/Z - 66% chance.
Dani wins HoH- If D/D win veto - 33% chance of winning. J/Z - 66% chance. (From Zach's perspective, he thinks there is no way D/D will take Jameka to the F3.)
Leaving Zach with a 44% chance of winning the game. Even if Dick would vote out Zach over Jameka (with a Dani HoH and D/D veto), Zach still has a 38% shot at winning. Either scenario puts him in better shape to win the game than leaving Eric in and Dani out.
