A comprehensive analysis and ranking system of the Survivor Winners

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Posts: 46 (10/21/07 4:26 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Season 1: Richard Hatch Opening: Voting strategy is dependent upon the social dynamics and relative strength of the individual players in the tribe. This is as much true at the beginning of the game as it is at the end and any discussion of strategy has to begin with a summary of the individual players in the tribe. Dirk: PU-player. Like so many in this first season of Survivor, Dirk did not go into this with any kind of firm strategy on how to win. He seemed to be forming a relationship with Sean Kelly: PU-player. Kelly formed an early relationship with Stacey. An athletic player but one that is going to vote to her own tune. Richard: AP-player. Aggressive player who came in with the mindset that this was a game and the object was to win. Smart and a natural leader though his confidence often drifts towards arrogance. Rudy: PP-player. Rudy is not interested in being anyone but himself around camp which immediately urks many of his tribe mates. Fantastically loyal to an alliance, though. Sean: PP-player. Fit and a doctor, Sean brings skills to the tribe that are more than useful but his game strategy chiefly revolves around getting everyone to like him. Sonja: PP-player. Personable but clearly lags behind the rest physically. Stacey: AP-player. The only other player bucking for a leadership position, Stacey formed an early relationship with Kelly and seems to want to pull Susan into that mix. Susan: PP-player. Susan is forming relationship with both Richard, Stacey and Kelly. Not a leader type but one that realizes there is a game going on. D-players: Kelly, Richard, Rudy, Stacey T-players: Dirk, Sean, Sonja, Susan Tribal Council 1 - Day 3 - Boot: Sonja Votes: Dirk, Rudy, Sean & Sue voted Sonja Kelly, Stacey & Sonja voted Rudy Richard voted Stacey I've never been a big fan of solo voting. It just isn't a solo game, but what is interesting is that Richard is already recognizing that Stacey represents his primary threat and that to have anywhere near a functional tribe, he or Stacey had to go. Rating: Dubious - I suppose forecasting your attack like this at least alerts others, most notably potential allies, that there is a game afoot, but I still can't support going solo like this. It's just such a good way to single yourself out. Tribal Council 2 - Day 9 - Boot: Stacey Votes: Dirk, Rudy, Sean & Sue voted Stacey Kelly & Stacey voted Rudy Richard voted Stacey By this stage, Richard had formed a formal alliance with Rudy and Sue while Kelly was definitely in Stacey's camp. Rudy and Stacey were continually banging heads and it was effecting the functioning of the tribe. One had to go and obviously the removal of Stacey leaves Richard in charge of the tribe and the direction of the game. Rating: Great - Stacey was the best person for Richard to remove at this stage.. Early Middle-game: Tribal Structure: Dirk -> none Kelly -> Sue Richard -> Rudy Rudy -> Richard Sean -> none Sue -> Richard N-players: Richard & Rudy D-Players: Sue T-players: Dirk, Kelly & Sue Richard's game play has changed the shape of this tribe and created a definite social hierarchy. Kelly's relationship with Sue will soon bring her into the Tagi alliance but Dirk and Sean will continue to play solo. Tribal Council 3 - Day 15 - Boot: Dirk Votes: Kelly, Rudy & Sue voted Dirk Dirk voted Susan Sean voted Rudy Richard voted Dirk Usually, voting out an athletic player when you were down a player to the other tribe would not be a wise thing to do, but this being the first season things are a little different. Richard's biggest concern should be preserving his alliance of four as things at Pagong are still very individual. They could likely lose the next immunity challenge and still control the game after the merge. This makes this a choice between Dirk and Sean and it's really six of one and half a dozen of the other so you might as well vote for the player that is most isolated from the rest of the group, and that would be Dirk. Rating: Good - Either Dirk or Sean would have been fine here.. Tribal Council 4 - Day 21 - Boot: Gretchen The tribes merged and five new players have entered into Richard's game. Colleen: PU-player. Pagong was very much playing the solo game. Gervase: PU-player. Greg: PU-player. Gretchen: PU-player. If the tribe had a leader, it was Gretchen. Jenna: PU-player. Votes: Kelly, Rudy & Sue voted Gretchen Colleen voted Richard Gervase voted Sue Greg voted Jenna Gretchen voted Rudy Jenna voted Gervase Sean voted Colleen Richard voted Gretchen. Thanks to everyone else voting individually, Richard could choose whom to remove out and taking out the closest thing Pagong had to a leader was certainly his best move. Gretchen was respected by all her tribe mates and removing her really shook them up. Rating: Great - Gretchen was easily the best choice. Late Middle-game: N-players: Richard, Rudy D-players: Kelly, Susan T-player: Sean M-players: Colleen, Gervase, Greg, Jenna Tribal Council 5 - Day 24 - Boot: Greg Votes: Kelly, Jenna, Rudy, Sean & Sue voted Greg Colleen, Gervase & Greg voted Jenna Richard voted Greg With Gervase winning immunity, Greg becomes the obvious choice. Besides, it follows Sean's alphabetical voting pattern, meaning that Richard had an almost guaranteed majority in case the Pagongs woke up to what was going on, not that that was likely to happen. There are a couple of other things to note. First, Sean's alphabetical voting strategy does not extend to his own tribe, making him more of a PP-player rather than a PU. More importantly, Kelly is showing herself as noncommittal to the Tagi 4 and is actually forming stronger relationships with Colleen and Jenna than with her own tribe members. Rating: Good - An obvious call. Tribal Council 6 - Day 27 - Boot: Jenna Votes: Rudy, Sean & Sue voted Jenna Colleen, Gervase & Jenna voted Richard Kelly voted Sean Richard voted Jenna If Richard could have really pulled together a solid foursome, it would have been great to get rid of Kelly at this stage, but obviously Sean couldn't really be counted on. Following his alphabetical lead and just taking out Jenna was the best course. Rating: Good - With eight players still in the game Richard could still potentially need Sean's vote so following his alphabetical voting is the safest course. Tribal Council 7 - Day 30 - Boot: Gervase Votes: Kelly, Rudy, Sean & Sue voted Gervase Colleen and Gervase voted Sean Richard voted Gervase Despite Kelly's flipping loyalties, Sue still sees her as her ace in the hole for down the road, so a move on Kelly on Richard's part just wont work. The only vote he can truly rely on would be Rudy's. As such, the safe course is Gervase. Rating: Good - It was really the only option open for Richard. Tribal Council 8 - Day 33 - Boot: Colleen Votes: Rudy, Sean & Sue voted Colleen Colleen & Kelly voted Sean Richard voted Colleen As his voting testimonial confirms, Richard definitely recognizes the threat represented by Kelly and would love to get rid of her. Unfortunately, Kelly wins immunity forcing the vote to either Sean or Colleen. Colleen represents the safer route and besides, Sean is beginning to show some signs of waking up and playing this game and may become a preferred fourth over Kelly. Rating: Good - Kelly winning immunity basically forces this. Tribal Council 9 - Day 36 - Boot: Sean Votes: Kelly, Rudy & Sue voted Sean Sean voted Sue Richard voted Sean Kelly winning immunity once again makes this the only route to go. It would have been interesting to see if Kelly would have gone here had that option been available. I know I would have done it. Rating: Good - The only real option available. Endgame: N-players: Richard & Rudy D-player: Sue T-player: Kelly Tribal Council 10 - Day 37 - Boot: Sue Votes: Kelly & Rudy voted voted Sue Sue voted Richard Richard voted Sue Richard's reign almost ended here with another untimely immunity win by Kelly. I have little doubt that if the immunity necklace had been on someone else, Sue wouldn't have hesitated voting out Kelly, but with the tables turned it appeared that Kelly was going to try and save Sue by voting Richard and forcing a tie. On the revote however, it appeared that Kelly didn't think having Sue in the mix was worth the effort and risk of a further tie and changed her vote, one of many mistakes she had made in voting in this game. Rating: Good - Again, no real choice. Tribal Council 11 - Day 38 - Boot: Rudy Votes: Kelly voted Sue Neither Richard nor Rudy voted in this tribal council. Kelly saved herself for likely the fourth time with yet another immunity challenge win. An interesting thing that Richard did do during the challenge was bow out absolutely convinced that either Kelly or Rudy would have taken him. He was right. Tribal Council 12 - Day 39 - Boot: Kelly Votes for winner: Greg, Rudy, Sean & Sue voted Richard Colleen, Gervase and Jenna voted Kelly I don't think this vote would have been nearly so close in subsequent seasons as players went into this with their eyes a little more open as this being a game of strategy and deceit as well as one of social skills. That being said, the vote almost split along tribal lines with Pagong voting for the player that couldn't stay in an alliance while Tagi voted for the one that created theirs. Two different ideologies coming head to head, which was only broken by Greg believing Hatch, played the better game. It would be interesting to speculate if the game would have taken a different course in the future if the flip-flopping Kelly had been rewarded with the grand prize. I, for one, am glad we didn't have to find out. Grades: Opening: B Early Middle-game: A- Late Middle-game: A- Endgame: B+ Overall Voting Strategy: B+ Overall Social Strategy: B+ Comments: Although Richard was the undisputed leader in his tribe his arrogant nature definitely rubbed many the wrong way. Many may argue that Rich deserved to be ranked lower for his social ability but the fact is with his fishing abilities he was able to make himself useful to the tribe. Leadership: A, Social Ability: C+ Overall Rating: B+ Season 2- Tina Wesson Opening: Voting strategy is dependent upon the social dynamics and relative strength of the individual players in the tribe. This is as much true at the beginning of the game as it is at the end and any discussion of strategy has to begin with a summary of the individual players in the tribe. Amber: PP-player. She is not a leader, but Amber has the ability to get herself into the dominant group. She formed a very early relationship with Jerri and was obviously putting her support there. Colby: AP-player. Colby was most definitely looking to be a N-player by the endgame but, for now, was keeping a lower profile. As the most obvious alpha-male of the group, his support was being sought by the two rival factions and he was keeping his options open at this stage. Ironically, in the later seasons of the game, players like Colby are usually distanced from the tribe as being too threatening. He had formed an early relationship with Tina but was also expressing loyalty to Jerri and her posse. He likely saw Tina as his ace in the hole but was laying low and letting others take the spotlight until he saw how things shook down. Jerri: AU-player. The early dominant personality of the tribe and the closest thing the tribe had to a leader at this stage. Jerri had formed a support group very early, led by Amber and Mitchell and rounded out, she hoped, with Colby. Jerri was an overly aggressive player who alienated many members of the tribe and didn't understand the importance of, or was incapable of creating, a solid tribal dynamic. Keith: PP-player. A solid tribe supporter but not one to build his own alliance. He will ally with others that he respects and likes. Keith felt his skills around camp should be enough to carry him deep. I don't think he had a game plan beyond that. Kel: PP-player. Another tribe player who felt the skills he feels he brings to camp, and his athleticism, should be enough to carry him on. He seemed to lack either the ability or the desire to make strong relationships and soon found himself the most isolated player in the tribe. Maralyn: PP or AP-player. Tough to call the type as it was her lack of athleticism that saw her go, and we never got an opportunity to see whether there was a strategic game there. One thing for sure, she had tremendous social skills and demonstrated rock solid convictions. Personally, I think she would have been a gamer if given the opportunity. Mitchell: AU-player. Mitchell seemed to enjoy playing the opposing forces within this tribe and, like Jerri, didn't understand the importance of building a team as opposed to playing it catty. Tina: AP-player. Tina made an early partnership with Colby, but also seemed to have a very strong relationship with Maralyn, though it is difficult to tell whether this extended to a formal alliance. I suspect not. D-players: Amber, Colby, Jerri, Mitchell T-players: Keith, Kel, Maralyn, Tina Tribal Council 1 - Day 6 - Boot: Kel Votes: Amber, Colby, Keith, Jerri, Maralyn & Mitchell voted Kel Kel voted Jerri Tina voted Kel Despite winning two of the first three challenges, it was clear that Ogakor was tribe in trouble as Jerri took on more and more the mantle of leadership. Type-5 players are dangerous to the whole tribe, and Ogakor had two of them leading the show: Jerri and Mitchell. This was the tribe's central problem and it needed to be dealt with. Instead the tribe followed the path of least resistance and voted out Kel, compounding the problem by further supporting Jerri's hold on this tribe while getting rid of one of their most contributing players around camp and, more importantly, in the challenges. Moreover, Kel was showing no interest in building alliances and seemed not equipped to play the social game. He also appeared the loyal tribe player, making him an ideal T-player. At first, it appears that Tina's vote would not have made a difference, but her opinion holds sway. She most likely could have gotten Keith and Maralyn on board. Colby would have been more of a problem as this would force his hand earlier than he would have liked, but if Tina, Keith, Kel and Maralyn all voted Jerri, it would have left Colby little choice. It may not have come to that as Colby may have seen how much better the tribe would have been with Jerri gone. A more natural structure would have fallen out of the booting of Jerri with type-4s, Colby and Tina, leading strategy aided by type-2s Keith and Kell around camp. Amber would have fallen in line and Mitchell could have made an easy second boot without costing the tribe much. Rating: Dubious - Tina, along with Colby, Keith, Kel & Maralyn, should have voted out Jerri. However, as a weak female player getting past the early votes is huge for Tina. Therefore I rate this as a dubious rather than a mistake. Tribal Council 2 - Day 9 - Boot: Maralyn Votes: Amber, Colby, Jerri & Mitchell voted Maralyn Keith voted Mitchell Maralyn voted Jerri Tina voted Maralyn After winning their first two challenges, Ogakor has now lost their last three and this boot was all about rectifying the situation by taking out their least athletic player. Although there is some logic in this, the evidence is abundantly clear that building a functional tribe with respected leaders plays a far greater role in winning challenges than the athleticism of the individual players. The source of the problem in this tribe is even more obvious than it was three days earlier. Again, the vote should have gone to Jerri or perhaps Mitchell if people were worried about him physically. You would have to decide whether dealing with Jerri after Mitchell is gone would be more of a detriment than carrying the ailing Mitchell. It's a tough call, but either will adjust the leadership to where it belongs. Tina claims that her vote for Maralyn was one of strategy, and I'm sure that was her reason, but the strategy was unsound. Likely she was still following Colby's lead and Colby's plan was to still play his relationship with both camps in this tribe keeping Tina as his ace in the hole. Tina doesn't have quite the hand she had with the Kel boot as, if Colby was set to voting with Jerri, Tina was left with little viable resource. Rating: Dubious - Tina, along with Colby, Keith & Maralyn should have voted out Jerri or Mitchell. Early Middle-game: Tribal Structure: Amber -> Jerri Colby -> Tina Jerri -> Amber Keith -> Tina Mitchell -> Jerri Tina -> Colby N-players: Amber & Jerri D-Players: Colby & Mitchell T-players: Keith & Tina Ogakor has played a poor opening game, and Tina was no exception. Jerri's and Mitchell's determination to play the players in their own tribe rather than to play against the players in the Kucha tribe, coupled with Colby's desire to play both sides of the fence and not to step up to his natural leadership position, has left the tribe in a very bad state and the game very quickly slipping out of reach for each of its members. Their bad decisions in tribal council have played out in the challenges. After winning their first two, Ogakor has lost their next three and with Kucha gelling under Michael Skupin's leadership, it was starting to look like just surviving to the merge may be an accomplishment for Tina. But, by the end of the next stage, the tables will be completely turned. Tribal Council 3 - Day 12 - Boot: Mitchell Votes: Colby & Keith voted Mitchell Amber, Jerri & Mitchell voted Keith Tina vote Mitchell and Mitchell went out because he had the most previous votes against. Ogakor had now lost it's last five challenges and have gone to tribal council three consecutive times. They were now about to go down to five players, and the loss of either of the next two immunity challenges would mean almost certain death once the merge hit. Moreover, Colby was forced now to finally make a decision. If Keith were to go, he would be basically forced to ride fourth in the Jerri-Amber-Mitchell alliance and would no longer be able to protect his ace in Tina. More over, Keith going would remove yet another solid contributor to a team that is in desperate need of a win. Something had to change and Colby finally realized what he would have been so better realizing a week earlier, Jerri or Mitchell had to go. Thanks to votes from exiting players, Colby could actually pick which one and it seems that Mitchell's failing health is what tipped the scales. It is interesting to note, though, that having Jerri still in the game keeps one extra card in Colby's hand. It would have been interesting to see how this vote would have gone if the health factor didn't factor in. Once Colby approached Tina and Keith with the plan to get rid of Mitchell, they would have been fools not to play along. Rating: Great - Jerri's willingness to play hard for the tribe after this, despite being dethroned, showed that Mitchell was the right decision over Jerri. New Tribal Structure: N-players: Colby & Tina D-player: Keith T-players: Amber & Jerri Tribal Council 4 - Day 21 - Boot: Jeff The tribes merged and five new players have entered into Tina's game. Alicia: PP-player. Despite an imposing persona, Alicia seemed satisfied riding several rungs down on the social ladder. Elizabeth: PP-player. Loyal tribe player but not the type to climb to the top of the social structure. Jeff: AU-player. Jeff seemed to enjoy playing the game but seemed to enjoy stirring dissention more than building a team. Nick: PP-player. I saw Nick as one of the central players in Kucha but when Michael was taken out of the game, his game seemed to collapse around him. Roger: PP-player. Very loyal to the tribe but likely unwilling to weigh strategic thinking ahead of voting on conscious. Votes: Amber, Colby, Jerri & Keith voted Jeff Alicia, Elizabeth, Jeff, Nick & Roger voted Colby Tina voted Jeff and Jeff went out because of previous votes against. There were a couple of fortuitous events that aided Ogakor into going into the late middle-game on top of Kucha. One was Kucha losing their leader to an accident just before the merge, which, most certainly, took much of the fire out of them. The other was Kimmi, a member of the Kucha tribe that was later evicted, who flat out told Tina after their first tribal council that the outgoing Debb had put a vote on Jeff. Armed with this knowledge, Ogakor knew exactly whom to go for in the ensuing tie vote. Besides, as the only non-PP-player, Jeff was the one person that may have been willing to stir the pot and perhaps get Kucha into the game. Having said that, one shouldn't underestimate the change that has occurred in Ogakor since their last tribal council. They were now behaving as a team, happier around camp, and have actually won two of the last three challenges. This sense of team continued after the merge right into the first individual immunity challenge where many of the Kuchas were the first to bail in an endurance challenge, including potential target Jeff, leaving only Alicia to outlast their target Keith, which she couldn't do. The final showing of team was, when they were the last two standing, Tina stepping down to allow the immunity necklace to go to Keith, foiling Kucha's primary target and leaving them scrambling. Rating: Good - Tina voting any other way would have been foolish. Late Middle-game: N-players: Tina, Colby D-player: Keith T-players: Amber, Jerri M-players: Alicia, Elizabeth, Nick, Roger Tribal Council 5 - Day 24 - Boot: Alicia Votes: Amber, Colby, Jerri & Keith voted Alicia Alicia, Elizabeth, Nick & Roger voted Jerri Tina voted Alicia. With Keith winning immunity once again, the door was wide open to remove either Alicia or Nick. It could have gone either way, but I agree with the Alicia call, mostly because she seemed to have her head more into the game then Nick who really had the wind taken out of his sails since Michael's departure before the merge. Rating: Good - Either Alicia or Nick would have been fine calls. Tribal Council 6 - Day 27 - Boot: Jerri Votes: Colby, Elizabeth, Keith, Nick & Roger voted Jerri Amber & Jerri voted Elizabeth Tina voted Jerri Everything seemed to be shaping up for a continuation of the Pagonging until Nick won the immunity challenge. It appears that the vote was going towards Elizabeth when it suddenly shifted towards Jerri. Whether this was simply affection for Elizabeth, coupled with increasing annoyance with Jerri outweighing tribal loyalty, or an honest strategic move is difficult to say, but one cannot ignore the advantage of removing Jerri over Elizabeth, especially for Tina. Ever since the Mitchell vote two weeks earlier, Colby had been leading Jerri along that they will keep her to the end. Jerri, having no allies anywhere else - including from the foolish Kuchas - continued to cling to this straw. Perhaps at the start, Colby was honestly keeping his options open, but it seemed that by this stage he was as tired of Jerri as anyone. The thing is, Jerri's support of Colby, which also tagged along Amber's support, gave Colby strength when it came to leading the tribe. The removal of Jerri subtly, but perceptively, shifted that strength to Tina. As well, Jerri being an aggressive player, would likely have been willing had the Kucha's ever woke up and realized they were supporting the wrong Ogakor members. If Elizabeth were voted out, Nick's and Roger's best play would have been to team up Jerri and Amber and go after the tribal leaders in Tina and Colby. I'm not sure how likely this would have been, but removing Jerri now completely removes the possibility of a coup attempt. That being said, it's not like going after Jerri was without risks as it required the support of the Kuchas and their best counter play would have been to vote Colby. The fun thing is, they wouldn't have even needed the help of Jerri and Amber. If the Kuchas pretended to play along with Colby and Tina, but then voted Colby instead, it would have been a tie: 3 Jerri, 3 Colby, 2 Elizabeth. After a tie, the two players that are tied don't vote and the remaining players revote and are only allowed to vote for one of the tied players, either Colby or Jerri. Keith and Tina would have voted Jerri but the three Kuchas would stick with Colby, leaving Amber to make a decision, force a tie by voting Jerri or voting out Colby. In a tie, it would have been Jerri that would have gone due to previous votes against but it's hard to imagine Amber voting out an ally from the very early stages of the game over someone who just turned on a tribe mate. Colby almost certainly would have been gone and Amber and Jerri would likely have no remaining feelings of loyalty to Tina and Keith. It would be a whole new ball game. Rating: Great - Despite the possible counter play by the Kuchas, the situation was read right (turning on Colby never even occurred to them) and the removal of Jerri was the best outcome from Tina's perspective. Tribal Council 7 - Day 30 - Boot: Nick Votes: Amber, Colby, Keith voted Nick Elizabeth & Roger voted Amber Nick voted Keith Tina voted Nick A Kucha had to go and Nick was the obvious choice. There is no way it could have gone any other way and the Kuchas should have looked ahead and realized that removing Jerri three days earlier gained them nothing. Rating: Good - A completely obvious vote. Tribal Council 8 - Day 33 - Boot: Amber Votes: Elizabeth, Keith & Roger voted Amber Amber & Colby voted Roger Tina voted Amber Many people love to dump at Amber because she didn't see this coming, but I don't think Colby saw it coming either as I am sure he was her in the final four with him. The problem was, he wasn't running this game anymore, Tina was. Colby apparently knew Amber was going but didn't vote for her knowing that Tina didn't need his support and he was thinking about her jury vote down the road. All this is fine, but it seems clear to me that if Colby were to make the call, it wouldn't have been Amber going. Like the Jerri boot, this wasn't without an obvious counter play from Kucha, especially with the very dangerous stray vote that Colby threw out. This time, however, they would have needed Amber's support and whether she would have given it or not is unclear. In fact, approaching Amber runs the risk of her going to Colby and Tina for verification which may cause the vote to shift entirely to Roger, but frankly, I think it's a risk worth taking because playing along with Tina and Colby just drags out Kucha's death. It does not increase a Kucha's chance of winning. The thing is, Tina once again called the situation right and the Kuchas were pleased as punch to play along. Removing Amber is one of the most subtle power plays this game has ever seen. It is not a struggle between rival tribes or alliances, but a quieter struggle between the dominant duo. Rating: Great - Tina is now firmly in control of this game. Tribal Council 9 - Day 36 - Boot: Roger Votes: Colby & Keith voted Roger Elizabeth & Roger voted Keith Tina voted Roger Once again, it is obvious a Kucha had to go and if one went with both popularity and with strength in the challenges, the choice leans to Elizabeth, but not by a whole lot. What is interesting about the decision going to Roger is that Tina now goes into the endgame with three other players, all of which support her over Colby. She has just about guaranteed her position into the final two no matter how the immunity challenges play out. Was this deliberate on her part? I like to think so. Rating: Interesting - Roger represents the last of the Colby supporters. Endgame: N-players: Colby, Tina D-player: Keith T-player: Elizabeth Tribal Council 10 - Day 37 - Boot: Elizabeth Votes: Colby & Keith voted Elizabeth Elizabeth voted Keith Tina voted Elizabeth No real choice here. It interesting to note that the counter of Keith and Elizabeth voting Tina (Colby won immunity) to force a tie doesn't work because of the previous votes on Elizabeth, not that either of these two players would have even thought of playing that aggressively. Rating: Good - An easy vote. Tribal Council 11 - Day 38 - Boot: Keith Votes: Colby voted Keith Neither Keith nor Tina voted in this tribal council. If Tina was destined to lose this game, it would have happened here. Clearly Colby's better play would have been to vote out Tina and go into the final two with the less popular Keith who did little more strategically than ride on Colby's and Tina's coattails throughout this game. Tina's investment in loyalty and support paid off, though, when Colby kept his loyalty to her. Tribal Council 12 - Day 39 - Boot: Colby Votes for winner: Alicia, Elizabeth, Jerri & Keith voted Tina Amber, Nick & Roger voted Colby This is really a tough call on the part of the jury, but if I were there I would have voted Tina as well. It was clear that as the game progressed, it was her running the show, not Colby. Grades: Opening: C- Early Middle-game: A Late Middle-game: A+ Endgame: B Overall Voting Strategy: B+ Overall Social Strategy: A Comments: Tina was very well liked and respected by everyone that played with her. Though she let players like Jerri and Colby lead during most of the game, she was definitely controlling the votes in the later stages. Leadership: A-, Social Ability: A+ Overall Rating: A- Season 3- Ethan Zohn Opening: Voting strategy is dependent upon the social dynamics and relative strength of the individual players in the tribe. This is as much true at the beginning of the game as it is at the end and any discussion of strategy has to begin with a summary of the individual players in the tribe. Clarence: PP-player. A loyal but non-aggressive player. Though strong and athletic, Clarence was isolated from the get go. Diane: AP-player. Diane definitely acted as one of the leaders very early on, though it didn't seem too many people were following. Though not around long, she seemed to not be timid when it came to game play. Ethan: AP-player. Easily likeable but definitely there to play. Always involved in any decision-making process but prefers to let others lead the discussions. Formed an early relationship with Lex and Tom Jesse: PP-player. Jesse was became ill at an early stage and showed no signs of having her head in the game. Kelly: PP-player. A very social player who's tactical aggression is difficult to read. Definitely someone to be a little wary of if she isn't in your alliance. Formed an early relationship with Kim J. Kim J: PP-player. An older and physically weaker member, Kim formed an early relationship with Kelly though wasn't the type to make bold moves. Lex: AU-player. An athletic and fairly charismatic team leader, Lex was somewhat of a control freak. Formed and early relationship with Ethan and Tom Tom: PP-player. A loyal tribe member who most folks found entertaining as well. Formed an early relationship with Ethan and Lex. D-players: Ethan, Lex, Tom T-players: Clarence, Diane, Jesse, Kelly, Kim J Tribal Council 1 - Day 3 - Boot: Diane Votes: Clarence, Jesse, Kelly, Kim J & Lex voted Diane Diane & Tom voted Clarence Ethan voted Diane When Diane collapsed during the immunity challenge, this became an easy choice. What made work even better is that she may have been the only other AP-player that was not in the dominant alliance. Easily the best choice all round. Rating: Good - An aggressive player who collapsed during the challenge; it doesn't get much easier. Tribal Council 2 - Day 6 - Boot: Jesse Votes: Clarence, Kelly, Kim J & Lex voted Jesse Tom voted Clarence Ethan voted Jesse By this stage the boys were firmly in control of this tribe and could really take out who they choose. Jesse, who had been ill most of the time and not making strong relationships with anyone, represents a path of least resistance boot. At this early stage, that is not entirely a bad thing but even ill, Jesse could run circles around Kim at the challenges and with them losing their second immunity challenge in a row they really needed to be thinking about tribe strength. Certainly Kim was popular but I think the tribe could have been sold on her need to go. The one decentring voice may have come from Kelly, but I think she just would have put her energy into getting close with Jesse. I think the tribe would have been better off but they lucked out through the complete collapse of the Samburu tribe on the other side of the island. By the way, don't fooled by Tom's vote. This is him just keeping Clarence in his place. Yup, way to build tribe moral, Tom. Rating: Dubious - I think strengthen the tribe by taking out Kim would have been the better move. Early Middle-game: Tribal Structure: Clarence -> Tom Ethan -> Lex Kelly -> Kim J Kim J -> Kelly Lex -> Ethan Tom -> Lex N-players: Ethan & Lex D-Players: Tom T-players: Clarence, Kelly & Kim J The Ethan-Lex-Tom trio completely running the show with Lex as the undisputed leader. Clarence is playing the loyal soldier and Kelly and Kim J, though building a relationship between the two, are not making any moves at changing the leadership structure. One day 13 a surprise swap saw Kelly, Lex and Tom sent over to Samburu and three new players entered Ethan's game. Frank: AU-player: Frank was co-leader of the Samburu tribe until his second, Carl, lost in a tie vote and was gone. Frank and Teresa are the only ones left of their alliance and both of them are furious with the other alliance in their tribe, especially Silas. Silas: AP-player: Silas was leader of the "mall-rat" alliance back in Samburu. He had made a deal with Carl and Frank but went back on it, incidentally the right move for his part. Silas is a gamer but underestimated the anger that his lazier alliance would generate from the older members of his tribe. Teresa: PU-player: A tough player to categorize. By no stretch a leader, she is loyal to those players she feels that deserve it but willing to turn her back on her tribemates that don't. For now, she's following Frank's lead. Tribal Council 3 - Day 15 - Boot: Silas Votes: Clarence, Frank, Kelly & Teresa voted Silas Silas voted Frank Ethan voted Silas Frank and Teresa wasted absolutely no time handing Silas's head over on a platter and they even helped Ethan and company throw the immunity challenge, a good move for Ethan as Lex and company were looking at a three-three tie at the Samburu camp as well. For his part, Silas continued to battle right to the end and recognized Clarence as the only potential weak link in the Samburu camp. He tried to rustle together anything he could with Clarence but Clarence was just not nearly an aggressive enough player to take advantage of opportunities to come his way. Things could have easily gone wrong for Ethan here if there were better players in the mix. Clarence should have explored options with their new tribe mates and if Frank and Teresa were smart (unfortunately, none of these three were) they would have made Clarence a final three deal and with Silas's help - Silas would have been there - voted out Ethan. This would have improved the situation for all four of these players, unfortunately they had all put blinders on and were on a one way track. There was even the opportunity for a truly brilliant play on the part of the Samburus if they could have just managed to put their past differences behind them. Silas and Clarence did hit is off and Silas learned that Clarence had four previous votes on him (half thanks to Tom's bonehead voting) while Silas had only three (thanks to Frank's and Teresa's bonehead voting). Frank, Teresa and Silas could have double-crossed Ethan by all voting Clarence and Clarence would have gone in the resulting tie. Now that would have been sweet. Rating: Good - It's hard to look a gift horse in the mouth. Though the possibility of counterplay existed, Ethan had the situation read right. Late Middle-game: Tribal Council 4 - Day 21 - Boot: Clarence The tribes merged and the remaining Samburus entered Ethan's game. Brandon: AU-player. An aggressive player with little loyalties and now in the minority. His actions are tough to predict. Kim P: PP-player. A complete follower but the only Samburu player left who really wants the tribe to hang together. Though loyal to Brandon, she also has a good relationship with Frank and Teresa. N-players: Ethan, Lex D-players: Kim J, Tom T-players: Clarence, Kelly M-players: Brandon, Frank, Kim P, Teresa Votes: Brandon, Frank, Kelly, Kim J, Kim P, Lex & Tom voted Clarence Clarence & Teresa voted Lex Ethan voted Clarence. The argument to remove Clarence was on of strength in the immunity challenges, but it is a weak one. With the number of strong players and the variety of challenges, the likelihood of Clarence putting together any kind of meaningful winning streak is exceedingly remote. In the meantime he is just floating along happy to be there. What made this vote particularly risky was Lex telling Clarence his time had come. A cornered animal, even the most passive of animals, is capable of almost anything and considering that there was fellow T-player Kelly, who even has options with Kim J, in the mix, the two of them would have certainly been better off going over to the Samburus. What makes Samburu attractive is their disdain for each other giving a reasonable chance of a real final four deal with one of the pairs. Alas, it wasn't to be as players rolled over waiting for their number to come up. By the way Kim J is now a D-player as the Boran alliance has extended a final four deal to her by this stage. Actually, it was likely well before this, likely shortly after the Jesse boot. Rating: Dubious - Although with the players left, the risk was minimal I think waiting a bit (say when there are eight players left) to get rid of Clarence is safer. Tribal Council 5 - Day 24 - Boot: Kelly Votes: Brandon, Kim J, Lex & Tom voted Kelly Kelly, Frank, Kim P & Teresa voted Lex Ethan voted Kelly First is to realize the obvious, this is very bad for Ethan and company as both Boran and Samburu are tied in numbers, meaning if Samburu vote together the best Boran can hope for is a tie in the next immunity council. Lex has the most previous votes against and Tom is second, so Samburu can take control of this game regardless of who wins immunity. That being said, Ethan as an individual was in a tough spot. Ethan has been letting Lex run the show but now those birds have come home to roust. Lex went uber-paranoid trying to find who put the extra vote on him (it was Teresa who felt some loyality to Clarence after Clarence dropped the immunity challenge for her). He interigated everyone and then Brandon put the bug in his ear that it was Kelly. Lex insisted that she goes and offered Brandon an immediate final five spot. Lex had both Tom and Kim J firmly on board so Ethan, a vocal opponent of the plan, had little choice but to follow along. Lex, of course, is incapable of keeping anything under his hat and Kelly soon has caught wind of the situation. She approaches Teresa and Kim P with her support and they, along with Frank, hatch the natural plan to go after Lex. Brandon is left in an interesting position as Samburu can take control whether it is Lex that goes or Kelly. Rating: Blunder - Deluxe brain cramp, but at least Ethan manages to safe the situation in the next tribal council. Tribal Council 6 - Day 27 - Boot: Brandon Votes: Frank, Kim J, Kim P, Teresa & Tom voted Brandon Brandon & Lex voed Frank Ethan voted Brandon Samburu seemed to patch up their differences with Brandon and seemed to be on track to take out Lex. In the meantime, Ethan convinced Kim J and Tom that Brandon could not be trusted and that he had to go. It looked like we were heading for Lex's demise but then he won the immunity challenge and instead of doing the obvious and shifting the vote to Tom, Samburu's uneasy truce completely crumbled and the turned on their own with Brandon. Rating: Great - Not only does Boran regain control of the game, but Ethan has gotten rid of a player that was supporting Lex while stepping up as the more natural leader within his own tribe. This vote likely represents the beginning of Lex's process of throwing this game away. Tribal Council 7 - Day 30 - Boot: Frank Votes: Kim J, Kim P, Lex, Teresa & Tom voted Frank Frank voted Kim J Ethan voted Frank With the silliness apparently behind them, Boran settles into pagonging mode starting with the natural boot of taking out Samburu's leader and strongest immunity contender. Rating: Good - Easy vote. Tribal Council 8 - Day 33 - Boot: Kim P Votes: Kim J, Lex & Tom voted Kim P Kim P & Teresa voted Lex Ethan voted Kim P Rating: Good - Kim P and Teresa, it's six of one and half a dozen of the other. Tribal Council 9 - Day 36 - Boot: Teresa Votes: Kim J, Lex & Tom voted Teresa Teresa voted Tom Ethan voted Teresa If the two D-players, Tom and Kim J, were tight there is a real risk of a coup here but with the players left in this game that just wasn't going to happen. Never-the-less, Teresa wasn't about to go out without swinging and, taking a page from Brandon's book, approached Lex saying that Tom was thinking about removing him. Again, Lex's paranoia almost got the better of him when he approached Tom with this. Tom was angered and if Ethan wasn't already in control of this game before this point, he was now. Rating: Good - Another easy vote. Endgame: N-players: Ethan & Lex D-player: Tom T-player: Kim J Tribal Council 10 - Day 37 - Boot: Tom Votes: Kim J & Lex voted Tom Tom voted Lex Ethan voted Tom The thing to realize here is that despite Kim J winning immunity and throwing the order of the boots out of wack, Ethan has already won this game. Lex has a final two deal with Ethan and he is of the personality that he would stick to it. Tom's swan song vote shows where his loyality lies and Kim J will show in the next immunity council that she is an Ethan supporter as well. Ethan's easy nature and leadership skills coupled with Lex paranoid behaviour pretty much insures a final two win against any of them. Rating: Good - No choice, really. Tribal Council 11 - Day 38 - Boot: Lex Votes: Kim J voted Lex Neither Ethan nor Lex voted in this tribal council. Mama Kim figured she would have lost to either so she picked the one that she felt deserved to win. Personally, I think she was selling herself a bit short as both Brandon and Kim P voted for her anyway and it would have been interesting if she could have squeeked a couple of more votes if she was against Lex - Kelly? Teresa? Tribal Council 12 - Day 39 - Boot: Kim J Votes for winner: Frank, Kelly, Kim P, Lex, Teresa & Tom voted Ethan Brandon & Kim P voted Kim J I've always considered Ethan a bit of a under-rated player. He was easily the best there was to offer this season and I think his biggest mistake really cantered around his trust in Lex's stability than in anything else. Though not as strong as our previous two winner, Ethan more than deserves his seat amongst the winners, especially considering what many of the future winners will be like. Grades: Opening: B- Early Middle-game: B Late Middle-game: D Endgame: B Overall Voting Strategy: C+ Overall Social Strategy: A Comments: Ethan was extremely well liked and respected by almost all the players that he worked with. He certainly stepped behind Lex when it came to leadership, which almost cost him the game, but by the end it was him that was the more respected. Leadership: B, Social Ability: A+ Overall Rating: B Season Four- Vecepia Towery Opening: Voting strategy is dependent upon the social dynamics and relative strength of the individual players in the tribe. This is as much true at the beginning of the game as it is at the end and any discussion of strategy has to begin with a summary of the individual players in the tribe. Gina: PP-player. Loyal and non-aggressive player whom immediately formed a bond with Hunter. Hunter: AP-player. Athletic and charismatic as well as the tribe's obvious leader, Hunter was playing the tribe strength game, but when backed up by both Gina and Patricia, it is also obvious that he is the early game leader as well. Patricia: PP-player. As a non-athletic, middle-aged, woman, Patricia is immediately in a vulnerable position on this tribe. Early support is obviously going to Hunter. Peter: AP-player. A talkative and quirky player who formed an immediate bond with Sean. Rob: AU-player. In a tribe full of early pairings, Rob's was with Sarah. Rob is always at the centre of any tribe activity but he is fully capable of making dramatic moves if he feels it is to his advantage. Sarah: PP-player. Rob's other half and blind follower. Sean: AP-player. Very vocal player who has difficulty keeping his opinions to himself. However, Sean is also observant and aggressive. He formed an early bond with Peter Vecepia: AP-player. A quiet but very observant player, Vecepia was keeping her options open. Her support drifted to Sean almost by default. D-players: Gina, Hunter, Patricia T-players: Peter, Rob, Sarah, Sean, Vecepia Tribal Council 1 - Day 3 - Boot: Peter Votes: Gina, Hunter, Patricia, Rob & Sarah voted Peter Sean voted Sarah Peter voted Patricia Vecepia voted Sarah This tribe was complicated from the get go when the players immediately split into three distinct groups. Gina and Hunter with support from Patricia, Sean and Peter backed up by Vecepia, and Rob and Sarah. After loosing the first immunity challenge, the consensus seemed to be drifting towards booting Sarah who offered zero around camp and little in the immunity challenges. If that is the way it would have happened, it likely would have saved this tribe a lot of misery. Vecepia, Sean and Peter could have easily slipped behind Hunter's leadership and, with support from now free agent Rob, could have disposed or de powered Hunter when the situation warranted. Unfortunately Peter couldn't leave well enough alone and openly suggested booting Patricia, in the interest tribal strength. This naturally raised the ire of Hunter and company and, with Sarah no longer the target, Rob was all over booting Peter. Rating: Good - Sarah was the right call from Vecepia's perspective. Tribal Council 2 - Day 6 - Boot: Patricia Votes: Rob, Sarah & Sean voted Patricia Gina, Hunter & Patricia voted Sarah Vecepia voted Patricia The door opened for Vecepia with Hunter's and Gina's blunder of wanting to vote out Sarah. Rob immediately switched loyalties to Sean and Vecepia and suddenly these four became the new tribal leaders. The problem was that no matter how they voted the tribe was likely to be left a mess as Hunter and Gina could not appreciate that folks are trying to play a game here and this coup was bound to leave the tribe bitter and divided. Removing the leader in Hunter may not have been a bad idea but, of course, has the problem of removing his strength from the challenges. Leaving this bitter player in the game is hardly more attractive but Patricia and Gina were likely to match him in that department anyway, so voting out Patricia was probably their best option. Rating: Great - The coup was the way to go and Patricia was likely the best option. Early Middle-game: Tribal Structure: Gina -> Hunter Hunter -> Gina Rob -> Sarah Sarah -> Rob Sean -> Vecepia Vecepia -> Sean N-players: Rob & Sarah D-Players: Sean & Vecepia T-players: Hunter & Gina It's tough to separate Rob-Sarah and Sean-Vecepia into N and D-players as they are essentially equal pairs, but I do suspect the Rob-Sarah bond to be a tad stronger. This tribe is still ugly as hell as it essentially has three leaders and it makes one wonder if the best call would have been to boot Hunter or Sean right from the beginning just to simplify the leadership structure, but it would have been very tough to support such a move. If only Sarah had gone first, Hunter could have been set up as a T-leader and this tribe may have come out competitive. As it was, the loses just kept on coming. Tribal Council 3 - Day 9 - Boot: Hunter Votes: Rob, Sarah & Sean voted Hunter Gina & Hunter voted Sarah Vecepia voted Hunter This episode's editing portrayed this as a bit of a "knuckle-head" move but I agree with it. This tribe was not losing challenges because of its lack of strength. It was losing challenges because it couldn't work together and the only hope of improving that was in simplifying its leadership structure. Rating: Good - Hunter was the best call in a bad situation. On day 11 a surprise swap saw Rob, Sean and Vecepia over to Rotu in exchange for Kathy, Neleh and Paschel. Five new players entered Vecepia's game. Gabriel: PU-player: A very likable and laidback type of player playing day by day. John: AP-player: The tribe's leader, paired with Tammy and apparently backed up by Gabriel. Robert: PP-player: Loyal, passive and isolated. Tammy: AP-player: John's other half. Zoe: PP-player: Certainly a T-player in this tribe but one with friends. Unfortunately for Zoe, they all went over to Marramu in the swap Tribal Council 4 - Day 15 - Boot: Gabriel Votes: John, Rob, Robert, Sean, Tammy & Zoe voted Gabriel Gabriel voted Rob Vecepia vote Gabriel In the minority on both sides of the island, it's obvious the old Marramu is in trouble. Vecepia finally got a taste of winning when the new Rotu won its first immunity challenge leaving the new Marramu to, not surprisingly vote out Sarah. The one important thing to recognize about Rotu is that it has never lost a challenge, meaning that alliances were never put to the test. When they finally did lose one, the boot drifted to the most vocal of the old-Marramu triple, Rob. There was a wrench in John's plan though, Gabriel. When he was approached about how to vote he said that he was going to vote the way his conscience felt. John immediately felt something was afoot (there wasn't, Gabriel was foolishly being straight up and probably would have voted Rob anyway) and decided to shift to Gabriel, a very risky move. Here Rob, Sean and Vecepia did the right thing and approached Gabriel about forcing a tie in hope of shaking things up. Unfortunately, Gabriel wasn't there to play that type of game (or any kind of game at all) and he allowed himself to be removed without a fight Rating: Good - Once Gabriel said he didn't want to force a tie, Vecepia's and company's vote became inconsequential. It's too bad their move didn't pay off, it might have inspired more aggressive play from M-players in future seasons instead of the constant sucking up we see. Late Middle-game: The tribes merged and the remaining player's entered Vecepia's game. Kathy: AU-player. An aggressive player but with little skills to play the game, either socially or strategically. Neleh: AP-player. Neleh perhaps has the strongest pairing in the game with Paschel, and backed up by Kathy, she obviously becomes a player with options. Paschel: AP-player. The other half of the Neleh pair backed up by Kathy N-players: John & Tammy D-players: Robert & Zoe T-players: Kathy, Neleh & Paschel M-players: Rob, Sean & Vecepia Tribal Council 5 - Day 21 - Boot: Rob Votes: John, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Tammy & Zoe voted Rob Rob & Sean voted John Kathy voted Zoe Vecepia voted Rob. The M-players, lead by Rob, immediately began looking for ways in which to dispose N-players, and with the dynamics if this tribe it didn't look like it would be too tough. Kathy, Neleh and Paschel had formed a tight bond and even Zoe, in the past, had been tighter with this group than with John and Tammy though Kathy became disillusioned with Zoe once she realized that there was actually a game going on. Rob correctly targeted Kathy as the player that may actually swing their way but his efforts were not successful and Rob was voted out, though he would have been the target anyway. Rating: Good - Vecepia was offered the fifth spot in John's alliance. Once it was clear that John was, for the moment, untouchable, her best play was to continue to be the good soldier. Tribal Council 6 - Day 24 - Boot: John Votes: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Sean & Zoe voted John John, Robert & Tammy voted Sean Vecepia voted John John and company, obviously not seeing the vicariousness of their position, made it abundantly clear to Neleh and Paschel that they stood sixth and fifth respectively in the game. Neleh persuaded Paschel that they should team up with Kathy, Sean and Vecepia and take out John. As obvious as this move seems, it should be recognized that it likely would never have happened had the tension not been raised in the game through Rob's and Sean's continual pot stirring. Rating: Good - Once all their efforts paid off, this vote became pretty much a obvious move. Tribal Council 7 - Day 27 - Boot: Zoe Votes: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Sean & Tammy voted Zoe Zoe voted Robert Vecepia voted Zoe This vote was actually precipitated by Kathy's anger towards someone she viewed as a friend but in the end removing Zoe only limits Kathy's own options down the road. Rating: Great - Limiting Kathy's options is exactly what works to the other player's advantage. They need her as a stooge. Tribal Council 8 - Day 30 - Boot: Tammy Votes: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel & Sean voted Tammy Robert & Tammy voted Vecepia Vecepia vote Tammy Perhaps some might have had the temptation of approaching Robert and Tammy with the plan of voting out Neleh, but it would never have worked as the original Rotus would have simply banded together over the stab attempt and take out Sean and Vecepia. Neleh and Paschel are running the show and Sean and Vecepia are only there due to their good faith. Rating: Good - Once Robert won immunity, this was an obvious choice. Tribal Council 9 - Day 33 - Boot: Robert Votes: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel & Sean voted Robert Robert voted Sean Vecepia voted Robert Again, a stab attempt through using Robert to force a tie wouldn't have worked because Robert would have finked in a second and Neleh and Paschel would have turned on Sean and Vecepia in half a second. In fact, if he had it in him, faking that Sean and Vee had approached him with such a deal would have been a decent counter play on Robert's part. Rating: Good - Again, there really is little other choice. Tribal Council 10 - Day 36 - Boot: Sean Votes: Kathy, Neleh & Paschel voted Sean Sean voted Neleh Vecepia voted Neleh Sean and Vecepia did their best to woo over Kathy, Sean even offering her a final two deal (and I think he would have stuck to it), but it was no use and the inevitable finally happened. Rating: Good - There was no sense in hiding where her game was. Neleh was the right target. Endgame: N-players: Neleh & Paschel D-player: Kathy T-player: Vecepia Tribal Council 11 - Day 37 - Boot: Paschel Votes: Kathy voted Neleh Neleh & Paschel voted Kathy Vecepia voted Neleh. The tie was resolved by having the three players without immunity reach into a bag and draw stones. Paschel drew the purple stone and was out of the game. Although always providing support to the right people, Vecepia was never out front in any of the alliances she was in. Here she showed she could play this game. If Vecepia hadn't won immunity, there is little doubt that the three original Rotus would have voted her out but once the necklace was around her neck the vote shifted to Kathy. Kathy voted Neleh and Vecepia did the absolute right thing by forcing a tie. With the necklace around her neck she had nothing to lose and everything to gain if the right person picked the purple stone, and pick the purple stone he did. Rating: Great - What's sad is how few other players in the same situation in other seasons, did the same thing. Tribal Council 12 - Day 38 - Boot: Kathy Votes: Neleh voted Kathy Neither Kathy nor Vecepia voted in this tribal council. Once Kathy dropped out of the immunity challenge the deal making began, but it was pretty obvious no-one wanted to be opposite the perpetual underdog Kathy who hadn't turned her back on any deals because no one bothered (other than Sean and Rob) to try and make deals with her. Tribal Council 13 - Day 39 - Boot: Neleh Votes for winner: John, Robert, Sean & Tammy voted Vecepia. Kathy, Paschel & Zoe voted Neleh The fact that most of the people voting for Vecepia did so simply because they were sore losers, personally I was happy simply because Kathy hadn't won. In my opinion, both Neleh and Vecepia are as deserving as at least half of the other winners of this game. Grades: Opening: A- Early Middle-game: B+ Late Middle-game: A- Endgame: B+ Overall Voting Strategy: A- Overall Social Strategy: B Comments: Vecepia was well liked by everyone but she tended to keep a low profile leaving others to lead the charge. Despite that, she always backed the right horse and was able to step up and manipulate events when needed. Leadership: C-, Social Ability: A Overall Rating: B+ Last Edited By: SurvivorSurvey 10/21/07 4:29 AM. Edited 1 times.
agent2424		#22	[-]
Posts: 1750 (10/21/07 10:01 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	you have alot.... a lot,,, of time on your hands....
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#23	[-]
Posts: 1429 (10/22/07 7:52 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The reason Aras wanted Shane out so bad was to trick him into not voting for Cirie in the f2. She pissed him off already by not taking himon the f7 rward, but he pretty much forgave her for that. Booting Shane sealed the deal for Aras to get Shanes f2 vote rather then Cirie, who betrayed him twice.
colleenlover		#24	[-]
Posts: 7220 (10/22/07 8:48 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Dr Will Hatch two point oh wrote: The reason Aras wanted Shane out so bad was to trick him into not voting for Cirie in the f2. She pissed him off already by not taking himon the f7 rward, but he pretty much forgave her for that. Booting Shane sealed the deal for Aras to get Shanes f2 vote rather then Cirie, who betrayed him twice. really? that seems awfully complicated
Dr Will Hatch two point oh		#25	[-]
Posts: 1430 (10/22/07 8:58 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Well, from what I read, Cirie really had no problem with either one of them going(shane or danielle) going at f5. What Im basing my last post on was that Aras said something along the lines of "ive set up this situation to happen to shane" on shanes boot episode. I may be taking the quote out of context, but im guessing that that quote meant that he was setting up Cirie to not get Shanes vote
panurge46		#26	[-]
Posts: 641 (10/22/07 12:36 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Just started reading this and I must say that there are many inaccuracies and assumptions. Survivor Survey, you are to be commended for the work but you obviously only went with what was shown on TV and your own assumptions, at least for the first 2 seasons I've read. I'd have to look at Borneo again but I know your chronology of the alliance is off. Richard knew Sonja was leaving. His first vote against Stacy was to scare her. It worked. In panic, Stacy tried to get a women's alliance going. Sue realized it was too early for that and she told us something like: "I told Stacy that I'd vote with her but I'm not doing that. She's the weakest here and I'm not keeping her around." The first alliance came when Kelly talked with Sue and they agreed that they needed to work in an alliance like Richard had been proposing since day 1. Those three were the first alliance. Rudy, although having come to appreciate Richard (not in a homosexual way for sure), hadn't formally joined. It was, I think, only during the Dirk boot episode that Rudy told us: "I didn't like the idea at first but I think that alliance thing is the way to go." Richard showed a lot of patience and slowly build the idea of the alliance but all his pre-merge votes were done according to plan. Dirk had to go, not Sean. Dirk could've had a moral dilemma finding out about the alliance and foiled the plan moreso than Sean. Among many other errors, this quote from The Outback's episode #4 showed you missed what really happened in Australia: "Once Colby approached Tina and Keith with the plan to get rid of Mitchell, they would have been fools not to play along." From multiple sources, I can tell you that you missed Tina's strategy. I don't know how you could still rate her #1 when you didn't know the intricacies of her game: During the hike on day #1 of the Outback, Jerri and Mitchell started talking. He's a musician, she thinks she can sing, they made an alliance and promised never to vote against each other. They agreed they needed 3 more players and chose Tina and Colby first. Those two had impressed the pair with their teamwork, by carrying a lot of weight and helping others. The 4 then added Amber to their alliance. Maralyn was seen as the weak link and Kel and Keith soon joined her on the black list for not pulling their weight. Both Kel and Keith had wandered off many times, exploring and looking for the camp while leaving their supplies to others. Winning the first immunity probably saved Maralyn because now Kel was seen as an outsider and EVERYONE hated Keith who boasted that he knew how to make fire, how to make shelter, who knew it all but couldn't even cook rice. As Borneo had shown, the challenges weren't very physical so booting a strong player wasn't that much of a no-no back then. Tina was not aligned with Keith then, she never planned on booting Jerri who hadn't yet gotten on her allies' nerves. In fact, most Ogakors took her side against Keith, enabling her to air their own frustrations by speaking her mind. It's never a good idea to stir trouble during a first boot when it's not you. Jerri wanted Kel gone, Tina was in the Ogakor5 and voted out Kel. Episode #3 started showing some of Tina's intelligence. See, in the Outback, previous votes were the tie-breaker and Tina actively played not to get a single vote. Tina knew that Maralyn was next on the chopping block. Tina was worried that Maralyn would be thinking: "It's either me or Tina so I'll have to vote Tina." Tina became Maralyn's best friend up to the moment Maralyn casted her vote. Once that was done, Tina had no problem saying "I'm voting with my alliance." What wasn't revealed during that episode but was learned from interviews: Colby and Mitchell were so mad at Keith for his know-it-all attitude, they wanted him voted out immediately. Why do you think Keith voted Mitchell and not Jerri?!! It was Jerri and Tina that convinced Colby and Mitchell to keep Keith!! Didn't know that one, did you? The only hint we get of it on TV was at the beginning of episode #4 when Amber sees Colby and Keith talking. She tells Jerri: "Colby can easily be swayed. He's not strong in his opinions." For Lamber to say that, it's a moment of television gold! Why did she say that? She saw Colby change his opinion on voting Keith out. Something did happen during that TC that the editors jumped on: Even if she was in the alliance, Tina hadn't been one of Jerri's minions. It resulted in Tina not being named by Jerri as one of her friends. The story could be edited as if Tina was an outsider!! Episode #4 is key to understaning the Outback: Jerri's slip caused a problem for Tina but also an opportunity. Now Keith, who hated Jerri and Mitchell, could think: "It's either me or Tina so I have to vote Tina." On the other hand, it gave Tina a reason to talk with Keith about the game. From interviews, it was revealed that Jerri and Mitchell's routine, EVERY morning after getting up, was to take the boat and go fishing. Tina, her main intent being to stir trouble, told Keith they should talk out on the boat. We hadn't been shown the morning routine so we saw Jerri and Mitchell stealing the boat and that augmented the viewers hatred of Jerri but that wasn't the exact story. Keith was now even more mad at the pair. Tina had gotten rid of her problem and she'd have another vote free council. The opportunity to talk wasn't wasted either. Tina learned a lot about Keith. Instead of a know-it-all, she discovered a religious, family man. Was it because he had seen Dirk being shuned in Borneo, that I don't know, but he had mainly kept that to himself. Tina started thinking of a new plan which another immunity loss forced into quick action. The alliance of 5 was still determined to vote out Keith. Even if he felt Keith's strength was needed, you hear Colby say that Keith was going that night just as they are ready to leave for TC. IT WAS TINA not Colby who changed the vote. She used the fact that Ogakor needed Keith's strength as a pretext but her plan went deeper. Knowing about Colby's worries, she started by talking to Mitchell on the way to Tribal Council, proposing to vote off Amber who had been the 5th wheel and wasn't that good in challenges. Mitchell would have none of it. When asked if he wanted to win or be loyal to his friends. Mitchell said they had to win while remaining loyal. Tina turned around and then went to Colby. She told him about her conversation with Mitchell and explained that, with his prior vote, they didn't need a majority to boot him out the way they needed to boot Amber. She then reassured Colby that it didn't mean Keith would make it to the end, that they'd deal with him as soon as possible but that they needed him for one vote. Colby understood they had to go with Keith even if he still didn't like him. After that TC, Tina needed to remind Colby of 3 things: She and Colby were going together to the end. Colby had to make Jerri believe he was still with her and Keith didn't deserve to even be there, let alone win. Tina's plan worked to perfection. Jerri never fully realized that the move against Mitchell robbed her of her power. She still thought she had 3 votes out of 5 and understood that the Mitchell boot was done for Ogakor, that she still saw as HER team! Colby remained convinced that Keith didn't deserve to win but in time, he realized Keith had the same religious and family values he did. Tina used the "good people" approach on him. Colby had some concerns about his image and didn't want to be seen as a member of the bad alliance as Tagi had been seen. Backstabbing allies wasn't what he wanted to do but, as he told us, since it was Jerri, it didn't count. Another thing that you missed of the pre-merge outback was that it was Tina who, already thinking of the merge vote, got Kimmi to gossip about Varner's prior vote. Kimmi didn't flat out tell Tina out of the blue. DrWH2.0: You are wrong: Cirie had a deal with Danielle who was the one that saved her after Shane had promised that Melinda and Cirie were the first two eliminations. Danielle made sure Cirie would be safe and she aligned with her. Aras soon joined the duo as a secondary alliance away from Nutballs Shane and Courtney. That was why Cirie picked those 2 for the reward. Danielle and Cirie even made a side alliance with Bruce and that's why they saved him and booted BobDawg. His medivac reduced Cirie and Danielle's options but Cirie and Aras always counted on voting out Shane before Danielle. Shane was an evident goat and Cirie was goat hunting. Nice players don't get brought to the F2 when a goat is around. Last Edited By: panurge46 10/22/07 12:38 PM. Edited 1 times.
Pulau Tiga		#27	[-]
Posts: 2443 (10/22/07 1:35 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	SurvivorSurvey wrote: Aras made the right choice here. Cirie, although a huge jury threat, was not a challenge threat in the slightest and there was no way she was winning the final challenge giving Aras the option of taking Terry. Terry vs Aras would have been a very hard one to pick but I'd give the slight edge to Terry. Rating: Good- A tough one but this was the right call I pretty much just chose random bits and pieces to read, but this was one of them, and I'd like to point out that voting for Danielle was not the correct course of action for Aras. Danielle was the only player in the F4 that Aras could beat in the jury vote. Attempting to eliminate her could have sealed his fate had Cirie won the tiebreaker challenge. Obviously Aras wanted Terry gone most of all, but with that more or less out of the question, his next best move was to make sure Cirie went home, not Danielle.
Pulau Tiga		#28	[-]
Posts: 2444 (10/22/07 1:42 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	panurge46 wrote: His first vote against Stacy was to scare her. It worked. In panic, Stacy tried to get a women's alliance going. Not quite. Stacey was the first player to proactively attempt to form an alliance. She pulled the women together into a group before the first TC ever began, rallying them together against Rudy. We know this from Sonja's interviews (who wasn't even sure if such a thing was allowed until Stacey brought it up). Sue decided to betray the women and boot the true weakest link of the tribe. The female alliance was formed very early on, and that's why Rich cast his vote for Stacey. She posed the biggest threat to his game, and it seems that he was trying to feel out the tribe's position on the matter.
SenseiKreese		#29	[-]
Posts: 1552 (10/22/07 1:54 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	<< Richard showed a lot of patience and slowly build the idea of the alliance but all his pre-merge votes were done according to plan. Dirk had to go, not Sean. Dirk could've had a moral dilemma finding out about the alliance and foiled the plan moreso than Sean. >> Well if you read Burnett's book about the first season, he offers another reason why Richard spared Sean and voted out Dirk. It was because Richard was completely infatuated with Sean and was basically having wet dreams about the guy on a nightly basis. Richard kept Sean around for several reasons, but one of them was definitely because he thought Sean was cute. Plus if the alliance with Sue/Kelly ever fell apart, Richard had high hopes that he could bring Sean in at the last minute as part of the plan.
RavuRules		#30	[-]
Posts: 1022 (10/22/07 2:29 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Hey SS. Just letting you know, that I still can't see what you wrote from about halfway into Exile Island and downwards. I don't know what's up with that or if it's just certain computers Wow, panurge46. Starting the critiques off with a bang. Glad I'm just a visitor to the thread for once Well if you read Burnett's book about the first season, he offers another reason why Richard spared Sean and voted out Dirk. It was because Richard was completely infatuated with Sean and was basically having wet dreams about the guy on a nightly basis. Richard kept Sean around for several reasons, but one of them was definitely because he thought Sean was cute. Plus if the alliance with Sue/Kelly ever fell apart, Richard had high hopes that he could bring Sean in at the last minute as part of the plan. LOL. I hope this is all figurative and not exactly literal SK . I never heard this, but this is very interesting. I didn't know they had a book about it. That's cool
panurge46		#31	[-]
Posts: 642 (10/22/07 2:36 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Pulau Tiga wrote: "Stacy...pulled the women together into a group before the first TC ever began, rallying them together against Rudy" You're probably right since I am foggy on the exact timelines of Borneo. I thought that the raft scene with Stacy, Sue and Kelly was after Sonja's boot. Guess, I can watch Borneo again! Either way, Richard had a reason to vote Stacy. Sensei, I had never heard that one about Richard. Good one! Still, I remember Hatch saying that, in his mind, building an alliance was ethical but that someone could have a problem with that. That was just a bit before the Dirk vote so that's why I wrote that comment.
SenseiKreese		#32	[-]
Posts: 1553 (10/22/07 2:37 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	It is literal. Burnett goes into great detail in the types of dreams Richard was having about Sean, and why it made things complicated. I don't see how anybody can write and/or discuss the first season if they haven't read Burnett's book. It's pretty much the bible and the gospel of the first season, as well as being the most in-depth study of what "really" goes on during a Survivor season. There's no way you can rationally discuss Borneo without it.
Pulau Tiga		#33	[-]
Posts: 2445 (10/22/07 3:35 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	panurge46 wrote: I thought that the raft scene with Stacy, Sue and Kelly was after Sonja's boot. It was. But Stacey had already approached them all with alliance talk, back when she thought she would have secure numbers with Sonja.
SurvivorSurvey		#34	[-]
Posts: 47 (10/22/07 8:18 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	panurge46 wrote: Just started reading this and I must say that there are many inaccuracies and assumptions. Survivor Survey, you are to be commended for the work but you obviously only went with what was shown on TV and your own assumptions, at least for the first 2 seasons I've read. I'd have to look at Borneo again but I know your chronology of the alliance is off. Richard knew Sonja was leaving. His first vote against Stacy was to scare her. It worked. In panic, Stacy tried to get a women's alliance going. Sue realized it was too early for that and she told us something like: "I told Stacy that I'd vote with her but I'm not doing that. She's the weakest here and I'm not keeping her around." The first alliance came when Kelly talked with Sue and they agreed that they needed to work in an alliance like Richard had been proposing since day 1. Those three were the first alliance. Rudy, although having come to appreciate Richard (not in a homosexual way for sure), hadn't formally joined. It was, I think, only during the Dirk boot episode that Rudy told us: "I didn't like the idea at first but I think that alliance thing is the way to go." Richard showed a lot of patience and slowly build the idea of the alliance but all his pre-merge votes were done according to plan. Dirk had to go, not Sean. Dirk could've had a moral dilemma finding out about the alliance and foiled the plan moreso than Sean. Among many other errors, this quote from The Outback's episode #4 showed you missed what really happened in Australia: "Once Colby approached Tina and Keith with the plan to get rid of Mitchell, they would have been fools not to play along." From multiple sources, I can tell you that you missed Tina's strategy. I don't know how you could still rate her #1 when you didn't know the intricacies of her game: During the hike on day #1 of the Outback, Jerri and Mitchell started talking. He's a musician, she thinks she can sing, they made an alliance and promised never to vote against each other. They agreed they needed 3 more players and chose Tina and Colby first. Those two had impressed the pair with their teamwork, by carrying a lot of weight and helping others. The 4 then added Amber to their alliance. Maralyn was seen as the weak link and Kel and Keith soon joined her on the black list for not pulling their weight. Both Kel and Keith had wandered off many times, exploring and looking for the camp while leaving their supplies to others. Winning the first immunity probably saved Maralyn because now Kel was seen as an outsider and EVERYONE hated Keith who boasted that he knew how to make fire, how to make shelter, who knew it all but couldn't even cook rice. As Borneo had shown, the challenges weren't very physical so booting a strong player wasn't that much of a no-no back then. Tina was not aligned with Keith then, she never planned on booting Jerri who hadn't yet gotten on her allies' nerves. In fact, most Ogakors took her side against Keith, enabling her to air their own frustrations by speaking her mind. It's never a good idea to stir trouble during a first boot when it's not you. Jerri wanted Kel gone, Tina was in the Ogakor5 and voted out Kel. Episode #3 started showing some of Tina's intelligence. See, in the Outback, previous votes were the tie-breaker and Tina actively played not to get a single vote. Tina knew that Maralyn was next on the chopping block. Tina was worried that Maralyn would be thinking: "It's either me or Tina so I'll have to vote Tina." Tina became Maralyn's best friend up to the moment Maralyn casted her vote. Once that was done, Tina had no problem saying "I'm voting with my alliance." What wasn't revealed during that episode but was learned from interviews: Colby and Mitchell were so mad at Keith for his know-it-all attitude, they wanted him voted out immediately. Why do you think Keith voted Mitchell and not Jerri?!! It was Jerri and Tina that convinced Colby and Mitchell to keep Keith!! Didn't know that one, did you? The only hint we get of it on TV was at the beginning of episode #4 when Amber sees Colby and Keith talking. She tells Jerri: "Colby can easily be swayed. He's not strong in his opinions." For Lamber to say that, it's a moment of television gold! Why did she say that? She saw Colby change his opinion on voting Keith out. Something did happen during that TC that the editors jumped on: Even if she was in the alliance, Tina hadn't been one of Jerri's minions. It resulted in Tina not being named by Jerri as one of her friends. The story could be edited as if Tina was an outsider!! Episode #4 is key to understaning the Outback: Jerri's slip caused a problem for Tina but also an opportunity. Now Keith, who hated Jerri and Mitchell, could think: "It's either me or Tina so I have to vote Tina." On the other hand, it gave Tina a reason to talk with Keith about the game. From interviews, it was revealed that Jerri and Mitchell's routine, EVERY morning after getting up, was to take the boat and go fishing. Tina, her main intent being to stir trouble, told Keith they should talk out on the boat. We hadn't been shown the morning routine so we saw Jerri and Mitchell stealing the boat and that augmented the viewers hatred of Jerri but that wasn't the exact story. Keith was now even more mad at the pair. Tina had gotten rid of her problem and she'd have another vote free council. The opportunity to talk wasn't wasted either. Tina learned a lot about Keith. Instead of a know-it-all, she discovered a religious, family man. Was it because he had seen Dirk being shuned in Borneo, that I don't know, but he had mainly kept that to himself. Tina started thinking of a new plan which another immunity loss forced into quick action. The alliance of 5 was still determined to vote out Keith. Even if he felt Keith's strength was needed, you hear Colby say that Keith was going that night just as they are ready to leave for TC. IT WAS TINA not Colby who changed the vote. She used the fact that Ogakor needed Keith's strength as a pretext but her plan went deeper. Knowing about Colby's worries, she started by talking to Mitchell on the way to Tribal Council, proposing to vote off Amber who had been the 5th wheel and wasn't that good in challenges. Mitchell would have none of it. When asked if he wanted to win or be loyal to his friends. Mitchell said they had to win while remaining loyal. Tina turned around and then went to Colby. She told him about her conversation with Mitchell and explained that, with his prior vote, they didn't need a majority to boot him out the way they needed to boot Amber. She then reassured Colby that it didn't mean Keith would make it to the end, that they'd deal with him as soon as possible but that they needed him for one vote. Colby understood they had to go with Keith even if he still didn't like him. After that TC, Tina needed to remind Colby of 3 things: She and Colby were going together to the end. Colby had to make Jerri believe he was still with her and Keith didn't deserve to even be there, let alone win. Tina's plan worked to perfection. Jerri never fully realized that the move against Mitchell robbed her of her power. She still thought she had 3 votes out of 5 and understood that the Mitchell boot was done for Ogakor, that she still saw as HER team! Colby remained convinced that Keith didn't deserve to win but in time, he realized Keith had the same religious and family values he did. Tina used the "good people" approach on him. Colby had some concerns about his image and didn't want to be seen as a member of the bad alliance as Tagi had been seen. Backstabbing allies wasn't what he wanted to do but, as he told us, since it was Jerri, it didn't count. Another thing that you missed of the pre-merge outback was that it was Tina who, already thinking of the merge vote, got Kimmi to gossip about Varner's prior vote. Kimmi didn't flat out tell Tina out of the blue. DrWH2.0: You are wrong: Cirie had a deal with Danielle who was the one that saved her after Shane had promised that Melinda and Cirie were the first two eliminations. Danielle made sure Cirie would be safe and she aligned with her. Aras soon joined the duo as a secondary alliance away from Nutballs Shane and Courtney. That was why Cirie picked those 2 for the reward. Danielle and Cirie even made a side alliance with Bruce and that's why they saved him and booted BobDawg. His medivac reduced Cirie and Danielle's options but Cirie and Aras always counted on voting out Shane before Danielle. Shane was an evident goat and Cirie was goat hunting. Nice players don't get brought to the F2 when a goat is around. In terms of the Richard's vote on Stacey, even if he knew Sonja was going, I still don't think it is a great idea. Voting by yourself only ostricizes you from the group and "scaring" Stacey just makes her know she is in trouble. Scared players do dangerous things and I really don't think that Richard's vote for Stacey, at the 1st tribal, had any affect into why she went home next tribal. Sue would have wanted her out if she had offered an alliance or not. For Tina I do remember reading that quiet a while ago but yeah it never crossed my mind when I sat down to write all that. However, all that story does is so that Tina was an even better player than I said and seeing I already have her at number 1 it won't really make a difference to the overall rankings.
SurvivorSurvey		#35	[-]
Posts: 48 (10/22/07 8:21 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Pulau Tiga wrote: panurge46 wrote: His first vote against Stacy was to scare her. It worked. In panic, Stacy tried to get a women's alliance going. Not quite. Stacey was the first player to proactively attempt to form an alliance. She pulled the women together into a group before the first TC ever began, rallying them together against Rudy. We know this from Sonja's interviews (who wasn't even sure if such a thing was allowed until Stacey brought it up). Sue decided to betray the women and boot the true weakest link of the tribe. The female alliance was formed very early on, and that's why Rich cast his vote for Stacey. She posed the biggest threat to his game, and it seems that he was trying to feel out the tribe's position on the matter. This is correct Stacey's female alliance was started before she ever recieved a vote.
SurvivorSurvey		#36	[-]
Posts: 49 (10/22/07 8:23 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	SenseiKreese wrote: It is literal. Burnett goes into great detail in the types of dreams Richard was having about Sean, and why it made things complicated. I don't see how anybody can write and/or discuss the first season if they haven't read Burnett's book. It's pretty much the bible and the gospel of the first season, as well as being the most in-depth study of what "really" goes on during a Survivor season. There's no way you can rationally discuss Borneo without it. Mario is right according to Burnett's book Hatch had the dream on the night of day 16 on the island.
SurvivorSurvey		#37	[-]
Posts: 50 (10/22/07 8:27 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Pulau Tiga wrote: SurvivorSurvey wrote: Aras made the right choice here. Cirie, although a huge jury threat, was not a challenge threat in the slightest and there was no way she was winning the final challenge giving Aras the option of taking Terry. Terry vs Aras would have been a very hard one to pick but I'd give the slight edge to Terry. Rating: Good- A tough one but this was the right call I pretty much just chose random bits and pieces to read, but this was one of them, and I'd like to point out that voting for Danielle was not the correct course of action for Aras. Danielle was the only player in the F4 that Aras could beat in the jury vote. Attempting to eliminate her could have sealed his fate had Cirie won the tiebreaker challenge. Obviously Aras wanted Terry gone most of all, but with that more or less out of the question, his next best move was to make sure Cirie went home, not Danielle. PT that is one vote I really tossed up whether it should be a good or a dubious. At the end of the day I gave Aras the benefit of the doubt for a couple of reasons. Firstly, turning on Cirie his closest ally throughout the game and the most popular player would have been a very bad look and possbily cost him Cirie and other's votes. Secondly, I don't think that Terry vs Aras would have been the wipeout many people thought. However, you are correct that is one vote that really needs to be looked at and discussed. Like you I very nearly called it as a dubious.
SurvivorSurvey		#38	[-]
Posts: 51 (10/22/07 8:33 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	RavuRules wrote: Hey SS. Nice job on your ranking. You weren't kidding when you said it's be comprehensive! You seem to have thought about things a lot, and I'm very impressed with your effort. I don't know if it's just my computer, but I can't read the text about halfway into Panama and downwards. The text sort of disappears on my screen. I've just been skimming for now, since I've been busy with work, but it looks like you've done a good job addressing voting control In terms of my personal critique, I respectfully disagree with your conclusions, because I think your analysis has some blind spots (namely factoring in the role of luck). However, other than that, I think you did a great job. I haven't been able to read all of your system yet though, so maybe you did address things that I just haven't seen yet. I'm also getting a different perspective on the game reading your thought process as well, and that should hopefully improve my own Also, correct me if I'm wrong. It seems your ranking is mainly judging player control or dominance within their own season. So would it be accurate to say the main difference between our ranking systems is: (1) My inclusion of speculated luck or opportunity and using it to approximate skill (2) My focus on the overall skill of the players which also includes All-Stars data as relevant and limitedly applicable (3) Assessing the level of competition within a season and comparing it the competition from other seasons to approximate skill values So, it seems while I speculate on the skill of the winners in my ranking, your system speculates on who had the most control in their winning season (or played the most perfect game perhaps?) You are right Ravu that ranking systems do focus on differnt things. I think the main difference between our systems is that I look at what happened in the winners game and take it one step at a time. I feel in some of your analysis that you argue they ended up winning so it was the right move. I don't believe in that at all. While my system does not focus on luck as nearly as much as your's does it does analyse how players you were given luck or an oppurtunity played it out. Except for analysing Amber's game I don't look at how the other winners performed in All Stars. How they performed there is irrelevant because they did not win and didn't have a chance to win. When analysing the greatest Soccer World Cup Winners of all time you analyse Brazil's performance in the 1994 world cup but not their performance in the 2006 Cup. Finally, my system does take into factor the skill of the opposition faced by the winner. Winners like Hatch and Brian are lower in the rankings because the opposition did not make the correct moves on them and let them have complete control of the game. I will post the section from Palua onwards in a second post in just a sec.
panurge46		#39	[-]
Posts: 647 (10/22/07 8:37 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	"it never crossed my mind when I sat down to write all that...it won't really make a difference to the overall rankings." I hope you're not saying that you don't care about accuracy?! My point was that I had only read up to pre-merge Outback and found those inaccuracies. How many in the other 12 seasons?
Kirblar		#40	[-]
Posts: 4604 (10/22/07 8:37 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Aras would have beat Cirie 4-3 or 5-2 barring him falling apart at the jury. La Mina + Shane gives him the win. It would have sucked. I feel in some of your analysis that you argue they ended up winning so it was the right move It's why his "analysis" isn't that at all. A poker player in a heads up match who calls an all-in bet on the first hand with 2/7 off is not a good player and did not make a good move. They made a bad move and got rewarded for it because they lucked out. Last Edited By: Kirblar 10/22/07 8:41 PM. Edited 1 times.