tullfan2 wrote:
Based on all the input so far, this is my current spec. as to what happens:
1. The fans have it rough as the favorites dominate early on.
2. The favorites tribe begins to unravel and become disorganized because they have no strong leader. No one trusts Jonathan and Ami. Ozzy and James are loners and too independent to lead.
3. After the elimination of their weakest links (Mary, Tracy) and problems (Kathleen, MikeyB), the fans come together as a tribe under the leadership of Joel and mount a challenge winning streak.
4. At the merge, the fans have a 6-4 advantage with it being Joel/Alexis/Natalie/Jason/Chet/Erik vs. the dual showmance alliance of Parvati/James/Amanda/Ozzy
5. The fans pagong the favorites and end up as the Final 6 unless Chet's injury forces him to leave the game.
Yeah, this is simplistic and assumes that there is no tribal switch and no elaborate HII play but all the concrete potential 'deep game' longevity spoilers that we have are for the fans.
Natalie lasts until the family visit. T4K has posted that Alexis wins the family visit RC. Chet is reported to lose 30 lbs and there is photographic evidence that Jason lost some weight. If Ozzy, James and Amanda all are booted right after the merger, they would have had enough time to gain back most of the weight that they lost by the time of the China Reunion.
Remember in China both Erik/PG lasted until the final 6. Natalie/Alexis could be in the same position. They stay around until the final 6, because there are other bigger threats. It is also possibly they align with some from the favorites tribe. Just saying that a fan staying around until the final 6, doesn't neccassirly mean the favorites are ponged.











