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This is a thread about how Edgic is spoiled - SPOILERS IN THREAD

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Trixiego

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(03/17/08 5:30 AM)

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craig wrote:
"Edgic usually has more spoilers floating around in it than any thread outside of the spoilers board."

I've come across more spoilerish stuff in Sucks fan threads this year than in Edgic. We all share the board with people who read spoilers, so it is easy to have spoilerish notions passed on at second-hand. The same way contestants can give stuff away when they do interviews.

The difference craig is that the Sucks fan threads are not attempting to determine the winner.

Be that as it may, the recent posts in Edgic that caused some problems have been put out of sight seeing that there was some outcry about them.

Frankly those types of posts don't bother me nearly as much as the "wolves in sheep's clothing" posters in Edgic. Unfortunately, those posters can't be proven or disproven that they read spoilers unless their post history or past reputation dimes them out. I feel for those in Edgic who are making true attempts to figure out the winner.

chaperone

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(03/20/08 12:36 AM)

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Oops, I forgot on Monday to post this week's edgic winner votes. Anyone willing to do a new spoiler analysis for the data that was available to the spoiling community as of Monday morning?

Name	#win1	#win2	#win3	#lose	Lose%	wincount	winrank
Alexis Jones	1	1	0	11	52.38%	7.94%	4
Erik Reichenbach	0	0	0	18	85.71%	0.00%	7
Jason Siska	0	0	0	11	52.38%	0.00%	7
Kathleen Sleckman	0	0	0	20	95.24%	0.00%	7
Natalie Bolton	0	0	0	21	100.00%	0.00%	7
Tracy Hughes-Wolf	1	1	0	6	28.57%	7.94%	4
Amanda Kimmel	0	0	0	21	100.00%	0.00%	7
Ami Cusack	0	0	0	18	85.71%	0.00%	7
Cirie Fields	3	3	0	3	14.29%	23.81%	3
Eliza Orlins	11	7	0	0	0.00%	74.60%	1
James Clement	0	0	0	16	76.19%	0.00%	7
Ozzy Lusth	0	1	0	0	0.00%	3.17%	6
Parvati Shallow	5	6	0	0	0.00%	42.86%	2

ProbstFan123

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(03/20/08 1:17 AM)

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Are you talking about general spoilers? Or just the spoilers for this week's episode?

Because the season spoilers haven't changed at all since my original post.

chaperone

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(03/21/08 3:29 PM)

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ProbstFan123 wrote:
Are you talking about general spoilers? Or just the spoilers for this week's episode?

Because the season spoilers haven't changed at all since my original post.

I mean any spoilers that have arisen, changed, or anything for the whole season...so we can track whether edgic's picks are influenced by spoilers.

Cassidy666

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(03/22/08 10:52 AM)

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No change in spoilers since the previous week. There's a lot more discussion about edits though, which is nice.

chaperone

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(03/22/08 1:09 PM)

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Good to know...thanks, Cassidy. Since Jonathan and Kathleen are gone, that officially puts me back to knowing three vague spoilers, each could be said "so and so does well". The latter two were learned specifically in this thread (Parv and Alexis) and the first I read in a weightloss spoiler before the cast announcement was ever made (Natalie).

I'm trying to respect Edgic and not post spec...but I gotta get it out...even though I can say that none of this is in any way influenced by spoilers...here's my pro-con for each player left in the game.

Cirie (my pick right now) - Pro: Lot's of key relationships built for the jury, playing hard, a different edit from her last time explains a lack of fluff (her last edit) and therefore strategy poises her well for the end game. Con: Perhaps teetering a bit too N for my taste in a winner...definitely seeing more of her warts in a similar way that we saw Steph's in Guatemala.

Ozzy (2nd pick): Pro: Great position in the game. Great comments about how if they don't vote him out, he's gone. He's a hero and an arrogant schemer...which is complexity overall. Con: Not quite feeling like a good winner edit to me. Intagibly so.

Alexis (edgic's given her some attention): Pro: I liked her first 2 episodes, sets up key themes for the game; Con: There's just nothing there beyond the first episode much...no complex jury relationships. Insider clips of her abound on the cutting room floor. She's playing the game but we're not seeing it.

Parv (also edgically supported by the group): Pro: Great several first episodes, if her "changed game strategy" confssional in ep 1 holds true, she'd be a great winner. Con: If she's the winner, they've ignored her (not INV, but just storyline) for 3.5 episodes in a row. This last episode she got a great key confessional about Kathy, but that's not enough. If the tribes stay separate much longer (ie.e no further tribal mixups or merge soon) I don't buy that there's a winner anywhere on Airai right now.

Amanda: Pro: None. Con: INV ignored.

Natalie: Pro: She looks like a cat. Con: INV, ignored, unimportant to this game. She's 4th place Darrah/Denise/etc or out pre-jury.

Erik: Pro: Could have a nice arc of coming in as idolizing Ozzy, but coming into his own to win the game. Con: INV in ep 2 or 3, and I don't see that arc actually happening yet...

James: Pro: None. Con: Just comments on how people are dumb or bad or whatever. Is he playing the game?

Jason: Pro: His supporters point to interesting stuff throughout the episodes. Con: If he wins, I think he's being shown as having won by luck or serendipity. Would they really show the winner as naive enough to not consider that this might be a fake? I have a feeling he knows it might be a fake...but they're not showing it to us.

Ami: Pro: Got good game stuff going on, usually present at least in strategic play. Con: Not present in first couple episodes.

Eliza (she'd be my 3rd place pick). Pro: Seems to be most portrayed as involved in game and strategy on NuAirai. Had great placement early on in story/editing (horrible placement in terms of being sick and a potential boot target but that's not edgic). Con: Last episode was INV or near INV...why? Didn't comment on Kathy. Strategic scene in Jonathan's removal episode was left on cutting room floor...Could've been great way to build non-N winner doubt if she's the winner.

Complex Tribe: It's Malakal and Malakal. I'm BIG on CT even though some discount it. Even Koror felt complex throughout Ulong's demise. We were always left hanging as to who is where. And on Malakal, It's Ozzy + Amanda, Ami and Cirie (strategically moving), Erik (will he just be Pagonged or will Ozzy make him his young padowan?). I could see the next TC for them going in ANY direction, any of the 5 could end up getting booted. At Airai, I don't know who would get booted at next TC because it's not important. However, if Malakal loses again, I might be open to the winner being at NuAirai, but an oldMalakal-nuAirai winner is who I'd pick based on early complexity...and that'd be Eliza or Parv.

ProbstFan123

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(03/22/08 3:45 PM)

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One minor change in the spoilers:

Spoiler [+]

Cirie is now listed as "Mid-Jury to Late Game" on SFever's Bootsheet, whereas Parvati/Alexis/Amanda/Natalie are "Late Game". I'm including this because if we start seeing people back off Cirie as a winner pick, it might be because they're reading the Bootsheet.

chaperone

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(03/22/08 4:14 PM)

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Thanks, ProbstFan!

Jedijake

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(03/22/08 4:33 PM)

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Posted by Chaperone regarding Cirie:

Con: Perhaps teetering a bit too N for my taste in a winner...definitely seeing more of her warts in a similar way that we saw Steph's in Guatemala.

But Stephanie went up against an underdog from a minority tribe that was not returning. Cirie would be a LOT more negative if she was to lose against the same sort of person. The key word is "teetering". Cirie is "teetering" on N. Stephanie was flat out N. For the viewers at home, just going up against an underdog would not have been a satisfying reason for the dearly loved StephaMe to lose. She was not dominating the strategic aspect of the game yet backstabbed plenty of people. Cirie is NOT being self-entitled as Stephanie was.

Here's a question.

If there were no spoilers in S12, S13, S14, and S15, would the same people have been put on top of the winner list? I say absolutely YES.

The reason I leave out S10 is because there were actually, believe it or not, a few people who could have been contenders to win. Well, actually, there were only maybe 1 or 2 other than Tom.

S12 is a little hard to tell. Aras was deep in the middle of the road. Terry was another Tom and Cirie was actually another possible pick. Sally was also strong on the edit for a win.

S13, 14, and 15 were just plain obvious. They were handed to us. Well, Yul had a little competition for a couple of episodes from Ozzy, but it didn't last long.

This season, there are NO winner spoilers. This is actually the most open-ended season in a LONG time, at least since S9.

However, most of my personal predictions of Cirie winning comes from the lazy editing that we've seen in the past 3 seasons. Negative or not, Cirie matches the airtime and strategy that Earl, Yul, and especially Todd were shown to have. She also matches very well with Chris, although Cirie has a bit more airtime than he had.

The ONLY time we had a hidden winner since ASS was with Amber and Danni.

For Amber, it was because she was hidden behind and extremely closely connected to Rob.

For Danni, it was simply because they had to show Stephanie since she was central to the season's twist. They had to force upon us that she loses because of her attitude, although it was really mainly because she was a returnee and therefore was dragged to the end, despite what she may have tried to argue.

Neither of the above arguments serve Cirie. She is not attached by the hip to anyone the way Amber was to Rob. Therefore, her story is hers alone. Also, she is not one of two returnees. Half the cast returned, so the spotlight does not have to be on her. She is not, therefore, being dragged to the finals because she is a returnee. She is surviving because she's playing a badass game and is completely swamping people.

If the people who are playing this season are such "experts" of the game, they will reward Cirie if she makes it to the finals. The season surrounds the fact that Cirie is dominating. Yet, they aren't making her out to be this horribly negative person that some people are trying to argue that she is.

She's the same Cirie as in S12 with regards to her comments and sarcasm. However, unlike S12, she's playing a much more aggressive game and is doing what worked for her in S12 much more consistently.

Last Edited By: Jedijake 03/22/08 4:38 PM. Edited 1 times.

Cassidy666

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(03/22/08 9:17 PM)

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ProbstFan123 wrote:
One minor change in the spoilers:

Spoiler [+]

Cirie is now listed as "Mid-Jury to Late Game" on SFever's Bootsheet, whereas Parvati/Alexis/Amanda/Natalie are "Late Game". I'm including this because if we start seeing people back off Cirie as a winner pick, it might be because they're reading the Bootsheet.

It's a very subtle change and might not be due to a solid lead. But yeah, it should be included just in case.

Cassidy666

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(03/22/08 9:23 PM)

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Jedijake wrote:

They had to force upon us that she loses because of her attitude, although it was really mainly because she was a returnee and therefore was dragged to the end, despite what she may have tried to argue.

I would argue her edit was more along the lines of, not being dragged to the end since the perception of the players were that she was running the show, but that they resented her for it and for backstabbing them. Of course being a return player was also held against her but the focus of the edit was on her perceived self-entitlement.

GrenadeJumper85

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(03/23/08 9:21 AM)

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Exactly. I think Stephenie could have won that game hands down if she hadn't acted so self-entitled throughout the season.

As for as this season, if we're using LOGIC and factoring in spoilers and comparing to the most recent four seasons and how they were edited, logic would tell you Cirie is in the best position to win, with the way editing is going. I think it's completely ridiculous to even entertain the idea that Alexis might pull this out. It's like Amanda all over again, but even Amanda had a better edit at this point in China then Alexis does.

In every season since All Stars, the winner has had at least ONE CP episode before or at the merge episode. The next two episodes will be very important to look at.

chaperone

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(04/07/08 12:26 PM)

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Any update on spoilers that happened since the last update in this thread?

Here are the edgic numbers for this week...

Name	#win1	#win2	#win3	#lose	Lose%	wincount	winrank
Alexis Jones	1	0	0	14	87.50%	6.25%	4
Chet Welch	0	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	5
Erik Reichenbach	0	0	0	15	93.75%	0.00%	5
Jason Siska	0	0	0	15	93.75%	0.00%	5
Joel Anderson	0	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	5
Kathleen Sleckman	0	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	5
Mary Sartain	0	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	5
Mikey Bortone	0	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	5
Natalie Bolton	0	0	0	16	100.00%	0.00%	5
Tracy Hughes-Wolf	0	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	5
Amanda Kimmel	0	0	0	16	100.00%	0.00%	5
Ami Cusack	0	0	0	15	93.75%	0.00%	5
Cirie Fields	4	0	0	3	18.75%	25.00%	2
Eliza Orlins	4	0	0	2	12.50%	25.00%	2
James Clement	0	0	0	16	100.00%	0.00%	5
Jonathan Penner	0	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	5
Johnny Fairplay	0	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	5
Ozzy Lusth	0	0	0	10	62.50%	0.00%	5
Parvati Shallow	7	0	0	2	12.50%	43.75%	1
Yau-Man Chan	0	0	0	0	0.00%	0.00%	5

ProbstFan123

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(04/07/08 4:38 PM)

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No change in the spoilers since last week.

craig

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(04/19/08 2:59 PM)

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It's clear to me that edgic is influencing spoiler based-spec this season far more than spoilers have influenced edgic.

I'd never believe edgic could be unspoiled in the sense of "100% pure and free of spoiler influence" since edgic shares a board with spoiler readers. But that doesn't mean edgic can't be a basically honest enterprise that follows its own criteria.

The best argument for edgic honesty is its mistakes - many picking Tracy and Eliza early, sticking with Eliza as a top choice until her boot, and losing hope in Tracy for solid editing reasons.

I've researched early season spoilers, after staying completely clear of them until after episode 5, only knowing that Fairplay and Kathy quit the game, that Mary having Fairplay and Yao-Man in her top friends wasn't a good sign for any of them, and Coby's passionate hate for Parvati and Amanda could mean they last awhile and do some damage.

Eliza's fate as the first juror was solidly established, and yet edgic people attended to her fairly good edit (aside from ep.1 intro stuff). I had a strong suspicion spoilers were against Eliza making endgame, since I know who the spoiler readers are that post in edgic and noticed none of them were picking or promoting her. But so what, that didn't stop me from having her as #2 pic for awhile.

Tracy was supposed to be the third boot, yet she had the best fan edit ep.1-2 and moved ahead of Alexis in edgic. She lasted all the way to ep 7, justifing the early edit because the was the major sympathetic fan character ep.1-7.

The main spoiler influence on edgic was all the buzz about a Fan winning, and Alexis in particular winning that we heard in ep.1-2. At one point pre-season it was believed that the Fans would have a 6-4 majority at the merge (with Ozzy and Parvati going early and Chet and Joel making merge). Alexis and Natalie were more clearly established as lasting a long time than anyone. But instead of jumping on the Alexis\Natalie spoilers, edgic deflated them because of the weak UTR edits both girls received. Even spoiler-based speculation that doesn't follow edgic often rules them out based on editing.

Preseason I thought all the Alexis love and Tracy hate in Sucks proper was suspicious. Alex has a good bio, but would so many people have jumped on her bandwagon without spoilers? And would so many people have written Tracy off if spoilers didn't suggest she'd be an early boot?

I'm glad I avoided early season spoilers, because I wanted to watch Eliza and Parvati's story unfold without knowing in advance that they were doomed. I got to believe Eliza had a shot for 5 episodes (until I accidently got spoiled on her fate), and really believe she'd be teaming up with Cirie at the merge and going far (though probably not winning). And instead of worring that Parvati would go premerge (a likely scenario based on the cast), I got to tune in for ep.1 and see her get the most promising winner's edit of all.

Last Edited By: craig 04/19/08 3:02 PM. Edited 1 times.

Jedijake

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(04/19/08 6:02 PM)

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No spoilers were needed to predict that Aras, Yul, Earl, and Todd at least had an excellent chance of winning.

No spoilers are needed to declare that Cirie and Parvati are the two people to watch this season. Blame that on the horrible edits everyone else is getting or has gotten.

However, no spoiler says that either Cirie or Parvati wins. Hence the huge debate. Still, the way some people are standing by their guns (myself including), you'd think there would be spoilers supporting their contestant winning.

For once we actually have a contest. We sort of had one in S13 between Yul and Ozzy but after Ozzy became more and more obscure and was only winning immunities, having nothing to do with the voting, it became more and more evident that Yul would win.

Oowatanite

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(04/20/08 10:37 AM)

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Just an update on the spoilers.

Ozzy's boot was completely missed by the spoilers. And the spoilers have no idea who is booted next.

There is still no "winner" spoiler. There is still no F3 spoiler. There is still no F4 spoiler.

There WAS some agreement on the players in the F5, but even that has to be considered suspect now.

chaperone

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(04/21/08 11:42 AM)

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Just for the record...this is this week's result...

Alexis Jones	1	11	73.33%	6.67%	3
Erik Reichenbach	0	14	93.33%	0.00%	4
Jason Siska	0	14	93.33%	0.00%	4
Natalie Bolton	0	15	100.00%	0.00%	4
Amanda Kimmel	0	14	93.33%	0.00%	4
Cirie Fields	5	3	20.00%	33.33%	2
James Clement	0	15	100.00%	0.00%	4
Parvati Shallow	9	1	6.67%	60.00%	1

chaperone

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(04/21/08 11:44 AM)

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Oowatanite wrote:

Just an update on the spoilers.

Ozzy's boot was completely missed by the spoilers. And the spoilers have no idea who is booted next.

There is still no "winner" spoiler. There is still no F3 spoiler. There is still no F4 spoiler.

There WAS some agreement on the players in the F5, but even that has to be considered suspect now.

Without naming names and without using editing analysis, game logic, etc....of the 8 players left, how many are known (75% reliability or so) to be booted?

For example, don't count Natalie in that just because her edit is ridiculously awful...unless she has a known spoiler. Or Jason because he's being portrayed as mildly cartoonish and has no allies...unless he has a known spoiler about him.

And don't name names.

Last Edited By: chaperone 04/21/08 11:46 AM. Edited 1 times.

GrenadeJumper85

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(04/21/08 11:52 AM)

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Without naming names and without using editing analysis, game logic, etc....of the 8 players left, how many are known (75% reliability or so) to be booted?

Using that logic - none.

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