American Idol: Rankings of the Top 5

By Cheryl Williams, published Apr 28, 2008

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American Idol is finally down to the top 5 contestants, and the decision is getting closer as to who will be the next American Idol.

In my estimation, the top 2 choices are very clear. Here is my ranking of the top 5 contestants and my reasons why.

I believe that this week will be Brooke's final week, and she is who I rank in the 5th position. She really should have been voted off last week, especially in light of the fact that she forgot lyrics for the 2nd time this season, and did a start over. Brooke has a lot of talent, but has never really stretched herself out of her safe zone. Her pleasing personality has kept her in the competition this long, but it is now time for her to move on.

Syesha Mercado is who I rank in 4th place. I'm actually surprised she has lasted as long as she has. She has a wonderful voice, but has never made that special connection with the audience that some of the other contestants seem to have made. Her performance last week during Andrew Lloyd Weber week was actually her best and is what kept her from being voted off. Last week was the first week that she seemed to actually have found her niche...in singing a Broadway tune. But American Idol is not Broadway, and her days are numbered as a contestant.

Jason Castro is my pick for 3rd place, which is not a bad place to be in an Idol competition. Other 3rd place contestants have gone on to have very successful careers. Jason has a great voice. He by no means has a powerhouse voice, though...and he has a definite comfort zone when he sings. When he is singing songs that suit him, he is absolutely wonderful. Last week's rendition of "Memory" from the musical "Cats" did not do his voice justice at all. For one thing, it was not a song he had any kind of emotional connection with...and it simply was not his kind of music. Everybody loves Jason, though...with his shy smile, his sweet personality, and his beautiful eyes. He's a definite favorite among the female voters, and that is why he will last longer than some of the others.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/739929/american_idol_rankings_of_the_top_5.html

A Dose of Reality: American Idol 7: Top 5 Power Rankings
by Doug DeBolt
Published: April 28, 2008

This week, I had planned to use this space to relay my thoughts about the 20 finalists in the American Songwriter competition, which will ultimately generate the song the Top 2 sing in the finale. The voting has concluded in that contest, so the winner has already been chosen, and I'll eventually tell you that this year's Top 2 Idols, as well as the viewing and listening audience, will certainly not be winners. Not with the schlock that the AI producers gave voters to choose from.

Well, I guess I just did tell you that. But I'll eventually tell you why that's the case, song-by-song. But this week, I'm still a bit hung over from Wednesday night's sad elimination show. The anger and resentment still linger, and not just from me. Hard feelings abound across the country, and it's evident both in Internet postings and in critical reviews that people were shocked and dismayed that some of last week's strongest performers were up for elimination. Carly Smithson's dismissal from the show, when coupled with the season's earlier elimination of Michael Johns, has revealed some serious cracks in what was previously purported to be the "strongest cast in the history of the show."

As the rankings have slipped this season, I've put some thought into this show's strength and its longevity. Honestly, regardless of the viewing numbers, I'm convinced that no more than 1 million people are voting in any given week. Thousands of power-voters are cranking out more than 1,000 text votes with their AT&T cell phones, pretty much negating the 20 or so votes that moms and grandmas are getting through on traditional land lines. I did a little number crunching (at my core, I'm a bit of a statistical geek) and figured that maybe two out of 100 people are power voting, and that 10 or so are making as many as 100 calls a night. The rest of the people are likely in the 20 to 50 call range, with a few making more or less than that. The average works out to about 50 phone calls (or text messages) per person. Honestly, I suspect that it's higher than that, but if you take AI's reported figure of 38 million votes last week and divide that figure of 50 into it, you wind up with about 750,000 voters.

Think about it -- a whopping 750,000 people are deciding who the next great American pop star is going to be. And if I'm right, 2 percent of those voters are making up about 40 percent of the votes. That explains how bottom-barrel performances by the likes of Brooke White and Jason Castro can be rewarded in weeks where they're completely outclassed by Carly and Syesha Mercado.

The bottom line is that American Idol's very design is what encourages such travesties as this week's elimination. And it's that design that will spell the end of the show unless the producers make some serious changes to improve its competition and entertainment values.

• Change the voting method. Dump the text messages and limit phone lines to 20 calls each. This would seriously level the playing field and reveal who truly has the most fans. Obviously, this isn't change going to happen, since AI has such a sweetheart deal with AT&T. But if you're really looking for the best unsigned solo artist, marketing deals should be taking a back seat to other considerations. One alternative is keeping AT&T, but placing a limit on the number of text messages, along with limiting the phone calls. Again, any change of this sort is doubtful.
• Change the way the Top 24 is chosen. Right now, it's clear that they're "casting" the show with different styles and personality types. Like all reality shows, this one is run by producers who want to have its cast filling predefined roles -- the rocker, the kid, the country girl, the crazy-haired girl, etc. But it's this very attempt at casting that is allowing viewers to decide who they support before they even really hear the performers sing. Too many viewers are aligning with the contestants based on what they see in auditions and in Hollywood Week, and not even waiting for the first notes of the Top 24. If the desire is really for the discovery of the best unsigned solo artist, the producers will stack that Top 24 with amazing singers, regardless of the television value of their backstories.
• Select better themes. The effort this season to focus on single-songwriter genres has limited the singers' focus to a minuscule catalog to choose from. Be honest -- how often have you thought, "I haven't heard a good Dolly Parton song lately," or "I'm just not hearing enough Andrew Lloyd Webber on the radio"? Dolly, Andrew and Mariah were great mentors, but how about Dolly Parton on Country Night, or Andrew Lloyd Webber on Broadway Night, or Mariah Carey on Billboard No. 1 Night? This season's themes have handicapped the performers and often turned viewers away from the show, as expectations for those evenings has been very low. Broader genres will lure more fans. That seems pretty easy to understand.
• Get rid of the "waving hands of hell, as well as the other over-the-top production efforts added this season. I've not spoken with a single person who loves those hands, but even my nine-year-old daughter thinks they're annoying. And the nasty touches -- like the psyching out of Michael Johns, the gaggle or girls forced on David Archuleta and the camera constantly pointed at Carly Smithson's husband's face -- have further alienated scores of viewers. This season seems to be following a playbook entitled, "Ways to Anger the Audience." In that respect, they're doing a great job.
• Dump Paula ... and put Randy on notice. It's not true that Ms. Abdul doesn't have a brain. She just puts it on hiatus after the auditions end. Every season, she gives halfway decent advice in a half dozen cities, and even makes some OK points in Hollywood Week. Then the Top 24 commences and the Paula-Bot appears. Her comments are so useless and canned that you could place a cardboard cutout of her between Simon and Randy and play a loop of her statements from the last few seasons. Randy isn't much better, but he's at least willing to say that someone hasn't done well. To hear Paula, every person who has taken the Idol stage this season should have platinum-worthy recording deals. Even Sharon Osborne makes better assessments on America's Got Talent than Paula does. Ms. Abdul and her chihuahuas need to make a graceful exit and make room for someone who has something valid to say.

These changes aren't difficult to make (except perhaps for the voting method), but each would make this show more palatable to the average viewer. If fans feel like there's more talent -- and a better chance that their votes count -- they just might start watching again. And if they're not being treated like they have an IQ lower than Paula's, they might keep watching. You'd think that's a goal Idol could get behind.

Here is this week's Top 5, based on some statistical trends, opinion polling, the contestants' performances and at least a smidge of personal bias. Also included are my personal odds for each contestant (which are for amusement only):

#1 - David Archuleta (Odds to win: 3/2) For the first time this season, there's a change at the top. No, little David hasn't fallen from No. 1, but his odds have slipped a bit as the fortunes of the other David have risen. I'll still be shocked if he's not in the finale, but I'm not quite as sure that he's the slam-dunk winner. This week, the Neil Diamond theme should give him every opportunity to make his case for the finale once again. A song like "I'm a Believer" would be a good change-of-pace from his usual fare of ballads, as it could prove that there's a bit of diversity in that 17-year-old voice.

#2 - David Cook (Odds to win: 2/1) As young David's odds have slipped a bit, old(er) David's haven't improved, though he's still a huge favorite to complete the all-David finale. While I personally loved Mr. Cook's vocal powerhouse performance of "Music of the Night," a lot of fans were apparently put off that he didn't stick with his emo rock vibe. This week I think you'll seem his return to those roots, and my personal hope is that he'll do so with a ramped-up version of "Solitary Man," perhaps similar to the one recorded by Finnish group H.I.M.

#3 - Jason Castro (Odds to win: 20/1) While Jason stays in third place on this list, his odds of winning take a serious dip, largely because people are starting to see just how limited he is. A lot of folks were also put off by his complete ignorance about the song he chose last week, and with how stubbornly he seemed to resist Andrew Lloyd Webber's advice. There has been a perception all season that Jason is a bit of a "stoner," and I've used that term to describe him once or twice. A couple of fans have taken me to task in that regard, and I agree that I can't prove that Jason has every partaken of the wicked weed, so I'll never describe him that way again. Still, in light of how odd his comments have been all season (and how obtuse he seems at serious moments in the show), I have to have some way to characterize Jason, so I'll simply call him a dimwit. This week, I'd really like to see the dimwit take on the UB40 version of "Red, Red Wine."

#4 - Brooke White (Odds to win: 30/1) Brooke slides up a step this week, not because she's so amazing, but because Carly got the much-to-early boot last week. It's hard for so many people to believe that the Carole King wannabe is still alive on the show, and I really think that Brooke is shocked too. Did you catch Brooke's floored expression when she learned that she, and not Syesha, had safety last week? Brooke almost seems disconnected from the show these days, like she's just going through the motions. The irony is that Brooke's fans might be more interested in seeing her win this show than she is herself. I really don't expect much from Brooke in any given week, but she might do well in this theme with "I Am ... I Said" or "Play Me."

#5 - Syesha Mercado (Odds to win: 35/1) Syesha stays at the bottom this week, but her odds of winning (and of hanging on) have improved quite a bit, due in large part to her stellar turn with "One Rock 'N' Roll Too Many." She seems to be this year's version of Josh Gracin, who stuck around into the Top 4 more by attrition than by pure talent. Of course, she'd love to mirror his post-Idol success; Josh has three country Top 10 hits, and his debut album went gold. The odds still favor her exit, meaning that she might get her chance to start that post-Idol career soon. After last week, she almost certainly realizes that, so I'm expecting a balls-to-the-wall (pardon the expression) performance in Neil Diamond Week. I'm half-expecting "Brother Love's Traveling Salvation Show," though my best friend thinks she should play for the patriotic vote and sing "America."

http://www.the-trades.com/article.php?id=10256