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Clearly, this season is won by a woman. Setting aside the fact that they outnumber the men two-to-one right now, none of the four men remaining is getting an edit that's all that complimentary. Ozzy looks arrogant, Jason is being set up as the new Jaime, Erik doesn't appear to be in the loop, and I can't fathom anyone letting James anywhere near the endgame.

MALAKAL:

CHET: Why on earth did this man think this game would be something he would be good at? Especially on a fan tribe… why would they cast someone this clueless about how the game is played and what the physical demands are? I doubt he'd even be up to the rigors of Big Brother let alone this show.

CIRIE: I am in awe of her. Not only is she a good player (and, judging from her ability to create the 3-2-1 split vote for Courtney back in the day, we knew this) but she also seems to have a very good sense of what everyone else is up to. She just knows. It's a gift. She figured out Jason was probably creating a double-bluff on the idol, she knew Jonathan would not leave without arguing the point, and she knew that Joel would target her in the game. Undoubtedly, she will soon realize that Ozzy has the idol and that she needs to get rid of Ami ASAP. She has a gift for figuring out what others are up to, which makes me realize that her children aren't going to get away with pulling anything over their mother. Gotta say, though, that there are going to be some people in this game that resent her, and she does need to watch her step that she's not setting herself up in a position like Rob Mariano or Stephenie where the jury acknowledges that she played the game well, but they don't actually have any desire to vote for her. Also: I sincerely hope that Aras is watching this and realizing that his win is in no small part thanks to Cirie's machinations (that is, Cirie's ability to convince Danielle to vote off every single opponent she had a chance of beating.)

AMI: See, on the one hand, I think Ami is absolutely right to try her options with the Fans group… she would fare no better than sixth place with the current alliance hierarchy, and I think she and Tracy would make a pretty strong alliance. I don't think it's going to work well for her, though, for three reasons: 1. With Chet fading out, they'd have to force a tie or convince Ozzy/Amanda to vote for Cirie or vice-versa. 2. Tracy is clearly cursed as an alliance partner. 3. I concede that Ami might be capable of putting one over Amanda or Ozzy. But Cirie will use her almost precognitive game sense to figure out what Ami is up to. I must say, though, that so far, Ami has disappointed me this season. I was so looking forward to her tearing Fairplay a new one. Not to mention that I was disappointed that she didn't tear Joel to pieces.

TRACY: On the one hand, I see her as about the only one of the fans whose gameplay impresses me at all. On the other hand, she's dug herself in a hole by consistently aligning herself against the power structure. She's the Anti-Vecepia… instead of weaseling into the alliance that has the power, she consistently places herself on the outside and hopes she can convince those in power to do something stupid.

ERIK: I see a better option for him. He can rat out Ami and Tracy in exchange for being Cirie, Ozzy, and Amanda's fourth and then go scurrying back to Alexis and Natalie. He has no real ties to either woman, and quite possibly neither will make the jury. Undoubtedly Cirie will think of this in the next episode.

OZZY: A leeetle bit cocky there. A little bit of hubris. I suspect he's going to get blindsided at some point.

AMANDA: Interesting edit… that she's saying that unlike Ozzy, she doesn't ever feel confident.

AIRAI:

JONATHAN: Sucks that he had to go that way, but it was unavoidable. I can sense, though, his frustration in that this time, he actually had a chance! He was in the game! He wasn't cannon fodder to be dragged along because nobody would vote for him! Yul wasn't there to make Jonathan his bitch!

KATHY: Circling the drain. How grateful was she to not have to go back to Exile Island again?

PARVATI: Okay, she has James and Jason, but a tribe full of other women is probably not going to be an environment where she's going to thrive. Her work ethic is better than I remembered, though. It's interesting that she's being shown pretty consistently in a light where she's shown as either being industrious or making an insightful comment, especially those of us who regarded her as a bimboid non-entity the first time around. I suspect that she is more of a force to be reckoned with than people realize. She has a good social game and holds her own on physical challenges.

JAMES: He's safe for now. Getting rid of him would be suicidal. Immediately post-merge, though, he's going to need to wheel and deal.

JASON: Oh, man, is he going to be up for a nasty surprise. Although his double-bluff plan was clever, I suspect that he's going to get the Jaime treatment at a tribal council some day…. I think that he is going to get owned by the faves.

NATALIE: Who? If her strategy is to stay under the radar, she's done quite well.

ALEXIS: Not much seen out of her, either, this time.

ELIZA: See, she's smart, and she does surprisingly well in challenges, thanks in part to her superior puzzle-solving and spatial relations skills, but I do also fear that she's going to be put in a situation where she's going to struggle to make alliances, much like Ami. She can try to take out James and Parvati, but that wouldn't really help her much in the long run… no one would trust her, she'd be the low man in the fans alliance, and her current tribe would go into a talespin physically if they ousted James.

Cirie/Parvati and someone in the final 3. I used to think Alexis. I now lean Amanda.

Yep. I agree with that. No man is going to make it into the final. No fan will win this (although it is conceivable that one, presumably Alexis, might slip through the cracks into the final tribal council, nab a couple of votes, and take second or third place.) Maybe James will crack final four or five if he's lucky.

I am leaning towards Cirie winning, definitely. Parvati seems to be the only possible foiler there (the radical swing in her edit from "useless" to "productive" reminds me too much of Amber's massive edit shift from "non-entity" to "gun moll" for me to dismiss her entirely, but I still think Cirie winning makes more sense) so I'm pegging her as probably runner-up... her social game will win her some votes, especially for people that don't care for Cirie's machinations. I don't think that Cirie is going to win in a landslide, but with this potential final three combo, I see Cirie being seen as the strategist and Parvati coming up as being lauded for the social game for some and being bashed for, well, not having much game beyond flirting by others. Whomever is the third finalist is the irrelevant one. That's not to say that they might not have enough votes for second place (don't know about how Amanda and Parvati would stack up... but I think Parvati's perceived lack of deservedness would even out with Amanda's colossal inability to read and connect with a jury. Alexis would do well with the fan vote, but would probably not get any swing votes from the faves.) Just like last season, Todd and Amanda, in a lot of ways, were more relevant to the endgame, because the story was of how Todd won and Amanda blew it. Courtney, on the other hand, was not someone we were supposed to take seriously, not someone we were supposed to see as a potential winner, and even though she did get more votes than Amanda, her story was not the most relevant one in the finale arc. Amanda doesn't win this season. Prior to her abysmal TC performance, I thought she had a REAL chance of winning last season. She's too in the background this time. If she had, we would have heard from her ruminating on how she'd improve her game this time. Her edit this time is more one of a late jury member or possibly as a Becky-or-Cassandra-type non-entity finalist.

I have to agree, though, that to me, the biggest indication that Cirie wins is the editing in episode 2. She pretty much single-handedly took out Yau-Man, who is arguably the most beloved contestant on the faves tribe. And they soft-pedaled it. Cirie SO could have been made out to be the Wicked Witch of the West for taking him out, but they didn't show it that way.