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S-17 Edgic (editing and logic) Gabon
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 Thailandsurvivor |
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Posts: 2726 (11/07/08 10:17 PM) |
Last Edited By: Thailandsurvivor
11/07/08 10:27 PM.
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 262 (11/07/08 10:25 PM) Registered User |
in light of recent events and for those who may wish to review previous episodes before making winners picks, I'd be happy to extend the
voting site to Monday at 8:00 pm.
Let me know if anyone would like more time... thanks. |
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Oowatanite |
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Posts: 6259 (11/07/08 10:29 PM) Registered User |
And Oo, get off your high horse. Kthnx, it's not cool.Oh, okay then. You must think that's it cool to pop into a thread that you and the other trolls obviously read religiously, waiting for the rare chance to gloat on a misfire. See you again in about four seasons ! 
Cassandra was a better pick than Alexis... Yeah, wrong. Alexis' early support was deserved until her string of UTRs. Cassandra was toast after she completely disappeared in episode TWO. |
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Dictatorship |
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Posts: 5184 (11/07/08 11:05 PM) |
For once I agree with Oowatanite!
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colleenlover |
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Posts: 8686 (11/07/08 11:06 PM) Registered User |
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colleenlover |
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Posts: 8687 (11/07/08 11:33 PM) Registered User |
Matty's TC when GC quit -"There's no quitting."
rewatching a bunch of episodes on a wild Friday night for me. Thinking Matty's golden. Same TC Probst finishes it "One thing is for certain..." (Ace, Kelly, Matty listening) "you are going to have to dig deep if you're going to last in this game." (Sugar listening intently with the somber music) It's a strong impression. I think it's coming to fruition. Matty and Sugar in the end. (I think Kenny would win if he were in the final three, so I give the edge to Crystal being the third finalist)
Last Edited By: colleenlover
11/07/08 11:39 PM.
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 263 (11/08/08 12:04 AM) Registered User |
colleenlover wrote:hmmm... Crystal with the edge over Ken in F3 with Matty/Sugar... certainly fits with the "no 2 Adams in Eden" snippet.... |
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OnlyTheHunter |
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Posts: 1794 (11/08/08 1:10 AM) Edgician |
Still no time to rewatch, work is nuts.
Had to comment on this Ok, the first step in salvaging edgic's credibility will be letting go of all the bullshit excuses and revisionist history. "Edgic principles" said Marcus would win, and "edgic principles" got it wrong. If that doesn't break or disprove edgic, then what would? You look at the guidelines on page one, Marcus is not the only one going into this episode who fits. I thought he was the best fit. But the only one? Nope. Some players won't fit. (Hi, Susie, looking at you. And you, Charlie.) But some do fit the guidelines. Ken and Matty fit it. Did I rate Marcus ahead of them? Yes I did. Simple analogy. Who's winning the Super Bowl? The Giants look good. Got all the pieces. But the Titans are perfect so far. What about Pittsburgh? (I'm a suffering Bengal fan, hell fuckin' no, Steelers!) All could fit. If I say the Titans and they don't win, I missed my pick this year. Doesn't mean they weren't a worthy pick, but it means the wrong pick happened, among legitimate ones. That's all. An educated guess, based on guidelines I follow. Marcus was my pick. But not the only one that fit the guidelines. Got it? And there is room for variation, too. Some don't use certain guidelines. Some think more about others. I try to picture the Final TC and work backwards. Which isn't actually in the guidelines, is it. It has served me well, and screwed me up too. I stay here in Edgic only. I not only don't pretend I'm some seer, I'm quick to point out when I screw up agregiously. (Damn Aras!) No one kicked me out. (A few wouldn't mind if I left, but...) I certainly don't think I speak any gospel. You haven't seen me post anywhere else talking smack. And you won't. I'm just playing. Far from perfect. It's okay. Edgic isn't affecting anyone's world, is it? Didn't think so. If you see me interviewed on CNN bragging, call me on it. But you won't. All I ask of any "drive by" poster here is to let me know how I ever offended you. I don't know how I did it, and I either want to be sure to avoid it, or to know when to do it intentionally should the need ever arise. :-) If I am going to chide myself on Marcus, the one thing I am 100% guilty of is to stop looking for an alternative the last couple weeks. As soon as the show ended, and I looked at page one, Kenny fits Edgic just dandy. Why wasn't I paying attention? I got lazy. Dumb dumb dumb. I will never do that again. Back to some random thoughts I usually post before I'm ready to rate. Comments welcome. What is Randy's role? I was suckered in the finite thought that Kota defeats Fang. Big whiff potentially. Is this the Aitu Fang 4? If so, what does Randy do? Is he just good TV a la Judd? Does he become Dreamz and turn the tables on everyone? Does he stay Twila, as I felt, a F3 member who can't win? That's still available, as he can piss off anyone when needed. But you can see him winning that stray vote too. He has many people commenting on him for some reason. Lots of time spent defining him for what end? I still see late game at least for him. (Therefore he's gone immeidately.) Corrine goes from F3 loser to bitchy juror? Maybe. Charlie was toast before, now it's moldy toast. Crystal isn't winning. But she fits the losing F3 member too. Is the relationship scene with Marcus only needed in the boot ep, or something that reappears at FTC? Susie, Bob, enjoy your checks after the reunion. Bob has a shot at that extra 100K they like to hand out...uh, have viewers decide on. Kenny, Matty, Sugar. I don't have the ability to see Sugar as winning. F3? If I drink the communion wine CL passed to me as the last service, maybe. I want to rewatch some myself. Matty or Kenny. Kenny makes a little more sense to me as I sit here. I can't forget the worry over the idol. Sugar can play it, and Matty will be gone. That would be F5, playing the thought out in my head, and the leaves Kenny and Sugar standing at the end, Matty the sad boot right before the finale. Just thinking aloud. I just noted the intensity of Matty calling out his own fate, which I've seen happen before. I thought it would occur oh, about now, but it lingers in my useless little noggin'. Matty called Sugar, Ken and Crystal survivors. Fitting if he called the F3 or 4 and Randy is still around, and the paranoia of Crystal and brain of Kenny cut off Matty as a threat right before the big prize is within reach. And/or the idol does its job. Good fiction, at least. So we'll see. By the way, I'm not worried about Edgic's "stock" plummeting. For stock to work, you have to go out and sell it. Instead, I stay at home and watch tv. Explains why I will be playing Edgic for seasons to come. And why I'm up to 275 pounds! Michael edited for clarity about the idol
Last Edited By: OnlyTheHunter
11/08/08 1:22 AM.
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Francois40 |
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Posts: 2565 (11/08/08 1:38 AM) Registered user |
Also, with all of Susie's talk of "I gotta make it to the final 3..." this episode, I'm pretty certain she either gets blindsided at the F4 or she does indeed make the F3.She is Lydia, obviously. And like Lydia, will drop off the radar while the actual "players" circle each other. First of all when he choose Kelly we knew for game logic that was the best thing, strategically, to do, however the edition told us that it was the biggest stupid thing to do.. .If he was the winner they would have shown it as the way we saw it...Then he decided to boot Jacquie, again the edition shown us that it was also stupid. Again, I draw attention to his confessionals/vote comment that episode where he said something a la "Wow I hope I'm doing the right thing--it will come back to haunt me if I'm not" not once but TWICE. So far, it's been anything but. Before this season, I'd never seen Survivor. But, this year, a friend of mine is on the show, so I've been watching closely. I discovered this message board while trying to find clues about how my friend did.Cool, I guess (that you know someone on the show) but please be aware that ANY kind of spoilers (which you are likely to have uncovered while digging dirt on your friend) are absolutely verboten in this space. |
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Francois40 |
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Posts: 2566 (11/08/08 1:43 AM) Registered user |
OH and:
What of this strange footage of the "unused" Idol being tossed to sea, then shown floating there in the bottle, with no mention whatsoever by the players? Anybody think it washes ashore (I do), or are they just trying to make us think that? Note that "washes ashore" would also include "is planted in the surf by producers" :) |
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Phoenix1269 |
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Posts: 264 (11/08/08 1:45 AM) Registered User |
just a quick note before crashing...
CL inspired me to start re-watching the episodes... so i finished the first one... and i must say.... i did not realize just how much Matty was shown, and hidden. A couple of other interesting episode 1 tidbits... during the IC challenge, there is a quick shot of Matty sitting and resting with GC & Ken, then he stands up but just leans over the diggers, but doesn't do anything. Later, at TC... Michelle calls out and criticizes the Fang members who stopped and rested. She calls out GC and Ken. "it's a challenge, you don't stop...hello" and an immediate cut to Matty nodding in agreement. *Interesting* Also - at TC... in the insanity that was the first TC.... Only Matty, Randy and Ken say nothing more that "yes" or "fine" to GC being leader. These 3 make no other comment. Then.... after Michelle is voted off.... there is a reaction shot from ever person... except Matty. Still at TC... When Fang comes in a Jeff gives his whole... Get your torch, get you fire, as long as you have fire you are still in the game... blah blah. There was no one shown when jeff said fire = life. However... the 2 other times fire was mentioned... "Get your Torch, Get Fire" we see Matty dipping his torch to get fire. pulls back and shows everyone clustered around the fire... Then "As long as you have fire you are still in the game" at the words "you have fire" there is a shot of Matty with his lit torch, then it cuts to Michelle's wobbly fire and the word "still in the game" Just thought TC was really interesting. I got lost in the drama the first time... really the editors have some serious built in distractions at Fang. I am feeling the the winner is from Fang... and i think the editors got lucky. Also - one last note.... the opening intros.... Crystal, Bob, GC and Ace's comments were all strung together, back ot back. There is a break.... where jeff speaks about the game / building society, then we hear from Matty.... introducing us to the concept of Earth's last Eden. Those words were NOT spoken by Jeff before.... Jeff only referred to the location as Gabon and "one of the last untouched places on the planet." After matty speaks...jeff speaks again about adaptation in order to win the million. Then we hear from Marcus.... repeating, less articulately and less thematically, what Matty said. (I have other notes about some of the others, but i'm falling asleep while writing, so... i need to crash.... but it's been an interesting exercise to go back and re-watch knowing who the distractions are. I was surprised how much narrating Marcus did in episode 1...) anyway... food for thought. good night all. edited for spelling
Last Edited By: Phoenix1269
11/08/08 1:50 AM.
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getting real |
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Posts: 1310 (11/08/08 3:05 AM) Registered User |
Phoenix asked: just wondering if anyone can recall.... who were the people in the Episode 1 race up the hill who were called: Phoenix, I think that the theme of teamwork v. selfishness is a crucially vital theme for this season. A few weeks back, I wrote the following: With the manipulated emphasis of team-work over individual self-interest (Jeff's voice-over, Crystal's confessional), it is now clear that this is the season's most important theme. I really think Probst's emphasis on teamwork and selflessness in that crucial first episode is the key to how the season plays out. Had the season played out differently, Probst's commentary would have been edited entirely differently. With this theme in mind, here is how the remaining contenders stand (ruling out the edgically handicapped Bob & Suzie). Matty - the one who was most highlighted as being the team player in that first challenge. Apart from one episode, he has continued to be overwhelmingly positive since. His problem is that he hasn't had much complexity as yet. Randy - Can be safely ruled out as the very antithesis of selflessness. Sugar - Has been shown to advantage in this regard. She was shown to feel guilty for eating in the 'Sugar-Shack' while her team-mates went hungry. Her teamwork with Ace hit a snag but I suspect there's a redemption coming up with the way she uses the idol. Ken - Not sure where he stands as far as selflessness is concerned. He had little hesitation is throwing a couple of apparent allies under the bus but he's gone in to bat for Crystal. His edit is yet to be completed but I suspect his video-gaming (a loner's pastime par excellence) and his lack of social skills with women have been emphasized for a reason. Crystal - Has been edited as unstable and quick to turn even on her own. Does not look good under the selflessness criterion. Charlie - ? Corinne is interesting. Although she has been edited as the uber-bitch, she has been all about team so far, even to the extent of identifying herself with that team. ("You go after me, you go after the whole team", or words to that effect). Summing up, I think the first challenge was edited the way it was for a reason, and that we are now seeing the payoff for those initial editing choices. |
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Plumpynut Saves |
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Posts: 11 (11/08/08 3:45 AM) |
First of all - HORAY! Oh my god. That was amazing. I
am enjoying this season immensely, but I was getting ready to be oh so disappointed in survivor editors for making it "so obvious" and putting him
alone in the commercial and everything (which was an after thought), But they totally had me. When he was voted out, I just laughed for like 30 seconds, and I
think there might have been some shrieking. How awesome. Best season ever. I want to hug the story editors.
So who's
winning? I think edgic will have to
re-think some of its guidelines, as all of the remaining players have what I think are big edgic flaws (or at least very flawed edits, if some of my criticisms
aren't technically edgic), in my opinion, and one of them has to win. This is what I'm seeing (from least to most likely, of course):
Bob
Charlie
Sugar
Matty
Corrine
She had a very decent first
episode, she has a little positivity mixed in to her character via her relationship with Bob that ran as a thread through 3 episodes (she's usually the one
to comment about how great Bob is, which is positive), she is always being strategic and in command when her tribe goes to tribal council (Which is exactly
twice), she got some SPV about how smart and good at the game she is, and she was shown to be right about Susie flipping.
Corrine's accumulated
visibility number up to this point season is 18\19, while Parvarti's was 18. That's pretty good, if you accept the idea that INV isn't death in a
no TC episode. She's only been to TC twice, both times CP. If the INV rule is indeed incorrect, she's somewhat of a front-runner. But of course, the INV
guideline is probably correct, and she probably doesn't win, but no one has a great edit here and the INV\UTR1 separation is not one I'm completely
sure the editors are fully aware of when working. I'm putting her above Matty because I think it's more likely for the winner to be INV than a complete
and utter strategic dud.
Randy
Ken
It would be interesting to see who gets the credit for the Marcus boot next episode. If Ken gets full credit, he wins. I think. I really think Edgic will have to look very closely at some of its guidelines, as any winner at this point will be somewhat problematic for edgic. Ken being the least, but still - his point of view on major events wasn't shown to the viewer, and his actions were ridiculed in the recaps. That's at the very least odd for a winner.
That being said, god I hope he wins. Best winner ever. |
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Oaf |
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Posts: 78 (11/08/08 4:43 AM) Registered User |
C'mon, people! I'm really disappointed in you all. We knew this was coming. We've been saying it right from the beginning. Edgic is about predicting the winner in the first half of the season, and then not falling for the misdirection the editors are throwing our way in the second half. We all know it, and yet we fall for it every time!
This was exactly what Marcus' edit needed. Now that he's voted out, people are going: "there's no WAY he's winning this game! We were wrong this whole time!". But we Edgicers need to know better. This is perfect misdirection. Marcus's storyline in real life is even more suspenseful than the 'Chris against the female alliance in Vanuatu' storyline - we're supposed to think: "our number-one pick is doomed, how can he possibly win now?", but we should look past that, and remember that it's all about doubt, smoke and mirrors. It's taking an otherwise-obvious ending and turning it on it's head. We should be able to recognize this kind of editing trick by now.
So Marcus still wins. Hands-down. We just need to figure out how he gets there. I think it involves his still-unresolved relationship with Ace - i'm convinced this is a key part ofthe story. |
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 Cassidy666 |
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Posts: 9147 (11/08/08 7:21 AM) Registered User |
I just think some people here don't have the faith in edgic you have. I don't even know why they bother to post if they are so easily swayed.
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mtj1282 |
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Posts: 1761 (11/08/08 8:22 AM) |
Jedijake wrote: In one of his early interviews - back around the time of the premiere, either right after or before it. His comments are one of the reasons many at the spoiler boards have speculated for weeks now that the winner is either marcus, matty or sugar cuase they are the one getting the likeable edits. |
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Brazil Luvs Ami |
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Posts: 112 (11/08/08 8:27 AM) |
Just re watched the beginning of the first episode, and I think I may found something interesting there:
Before the intro we have confessionals of Crystal, Bob, GC (voted off), Ace (voted off), Matty and Marcus (voted off). Because three of them were voted off, I believe all may be doomed to also have the same destiny. Then we have the intro and the presentation of the survivors. During this presentation 4 contestants had a confessional about themselves: Ken, Randy, Crystal and Corinne. This confessionals were very similar, and the reason for the editors doing that, maybe, is because this 4 contestants are the Final 4 of this season. The editors may have used the official presentation of all castaways to present us the Final 4 What do you think of my theory? If you think it is total craziness, you can say it to me. I'm still learning how to do edgic and how to find tips of the F4 in the edition, so, right now, I'm still sticking to Matty as my winner choice. |
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colleenlover |
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Posts: 8688 (11/08/08 10:46 AM) Registered User |
Kenny, Matty, Sugar. I don't have the ability to see Sugar as winning. F3? If I drink the communion wine CL passed to me as the last service,
maybe.
Woah, woah, woah there, Hunter. I never said Sugar wins. I said, in my mind, she is one of the strongest candidates to be in the final three facing the jury. And the possible reality is she didn't win, but you don't throw out the baby with the bathwater" ala Colby and Ozzy. Rewatching a bunch of episodes last night, it was like a brick hitting me in the face regarding Matty. The reality is he is/was the Charlie Brown of the game. Nothing he did was working- sooooo, that is still the footage they can use. Probably isn't very good at the game. But like I always say, anyone can win the actual game (not the edited story presented but the actual game when it was filmed in July/August). Review the early episodes and note the care given to him in making a ring for his girlfriend, the questions about starving, the land of Africa, of Eden. All fits. Especially the half time call last episode with Fang post TC. "Clean slate." Crystal and Sugar both tell him, "Don't let anyone get in your head." Probst says Fang will need a miracle to survive the game vs. the Kota six. (We know the Kota six has major holes, but it's presented as the Empire from Star Wars) Ken, like Sugar, most likely is providing the goods for a TV show, and Crystal. Matty, not so much, but he won and is therefore pumped up a little more. And Kenny's confessional for next week, "I think I can win the game..." probably means he doesn't. Crystal's "you can't outwit Crystal Cox, baby." was pretty good and not presented in an arrogant way but as the underdog who made the hail mary pass to switch up the game. Most likely satisifaction now is that no one does outwit her and she makes the final three. (with the final three, there isn't the editing moment of getting a torch snuffed and losing -just like with Ozzy when he technically lost to Yul, it's all happy celebration) Sugar's story is also in the same vein as Crystal's. Unless she has a major epiphony about life and such on her boot episode -it seems it would be a letdown if her strength from her father's death and "they think I'm dumb" and "dig deep" doesn't propel her to the end as well. My three strongest candidates for facing the jury after the rewatch - (especially after the lead-ins from Probst, 'can Ace and Sugar survive' and Kelly's inserted, 'see ya, bitch.') are Crystal, Matty and Sugar. With Matty winning. Ken probably goes in fourth place -when rewatching, a point is made where he says he will lie to Sugar for the Ace boot. And Bambi upset last episode that Ken did dupe her. And with Ken pinpointing she is not dumb, and being tied to her first trip to Exhile. The game logic, not the storyline, is probably near the end, Ken is probably the clear threat to win. The only hiccup is Randy's head injury in episode one -but rewatching the other episodes, there's too much of a point being made that he is the troll. the reward heckling to Crystal is pretty big -note the music. I think too much craft is being giving to him not as a finalist, but as the force that is tricky, and we root for when Crystal votes him off- probably after Corrine and Charlie, but it is made to think he's making progress and is dangerous to the band of underdogs. His comments about being a tried and true yellow probably means he sells them out, and is the snake. And it will appear he is very good at it and in control. Corrine is all about providing the color. But her edit, looking at it now with Marcus gone, is all about being the meanie. "Stab her in the face!" and "She's forty-seven years old, what could SHE POSSIBLY have over me?" It's a set-up all the way for a satisfying boot ala Jerri. (sorry, Cassidy) Charlie -probably gets a spike in the next few episodes before his boot, being wily and crafty -but it's all misdirection. Note his first confessional is about how stupid Crystal is for picking Susie. And that pick is the one that comes back to ruin Marcus' game, and most likely his. It's the confessional of irony. Bob, most likely gets positive fluff before being booted -no real reason he goes other than just being another number. His hiccup is that a point could be made that was stressed he was being duped for a fifth spot in the Onion alliance. But those were really reporting scenes with no music or closeups underscoring the importance of the detail. Maybe the irony is that he outlasts all of Corrine, Charlie and Marcus. Susie could go at any time -I could see her though leaving in final five, or possible the INV final four boot (but final four is a big stretch in my mind compared to the care given to sugar, matty, Ken, crystal and Randy). All the final three talk was in the here and now for the episode and was needed for the catalyst for Marcus leaving. (Call it a hunch, but I think her real life confessionals aren't really dynamic and she probably talks in one train of thought- "final three, final three, final three.") |
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colleenlover |
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Posts: 8689 (11/08/08 10:50 AM) Registered User |
Getting real, good call on the team work aspect in the first up hill challenge.
Have to rewatch in regards to Matty being highlighted to help Gillian. Will have to look at larger reported shots too to see if others are helping others and Matty's is highlighted over others. And to listen to probst's voiceover. But I think you nailed it. |
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OnlyTheHunter |
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Posts: 1795 (11/08/08 11:01 AM) Edgician |
Hey, CL, I wasn't intimating that you thought Sugar won, I was pondering her making F3. I need to do a rewatch of the season as you did. Matty can make
sense. So can Ken, in my mind. I'll wait until the show airs to see if the line Kenny said in the preview makes the show. I'm still waiting to see
Corrine naked.
Randy can provide color as a juror or F3, really, since his relationships are all colorful. So I'll have to follow that through. But I don't see him winning. Want to examine the rest. Michael |
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