Eugenics
Astrology
Lamarckian Evolution
Alchemy
Edgic
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DarkHelmet |
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Phrenology
Eugenics Astrology Lamarckian Evolution Alchemy Edgic |
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Former Lurker 2 |
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I was just thinking that, based on what I am reading, Edgic attempts to turn art into a science. Very clever. |
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Former Lurker 2 |
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SwineForkbeard wrote: That's the problem with any science which cannot avoid the subjectivity of the scientist analyzing the data. The personal bias and preconceptions of the person looking at the data becomes part of the analysis. If your thesis is that Marcus will win, then you may subconsciously skew your data to explain how that can happen, at least until he gets booted. Therefore, if there is a mistake, the whole thing is hard to unravel. Here we are on page 209. If someone made a mistake on page 183 (and I didn't look at page 183 before typing that; it's just a random number), it's hard to go back and figure out how the whole theory got off track. The biggest criticism I have about the Edgic process is the fact that the ratings are necessarily subjective. Then the final tallies are determined by what is essentially a "tyranny of the majority" process. The people who point out that certain ratings or whatever don't fit in with obvious themes and whatnot are actually doing Edgic a service, by providing a means of checking the "calculations." |
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Oowatanite |
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panurge46 wrote: In this "Edgic versus themes" discussion, it is surprising that no one has brought up Pastordice's cheeseburger posts. |
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TheLurkerSpeaks |
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The point of subjectivity is well taken, and I've always said this is more art than science, but it is what it is, not what it isn't.
Themes will not always correlate with Edgic. I personally think blatant themes are more symptomatic of distractions than the winners. If people want to add depth to their Edgic analysis by noting themes, I don't have a problem with that as long as it is Edgic analysis. Otherwise, I don't see how adding theme-based speculation in this thread does anything for Edgic except confuse what we are doing here. The object after all is not just to pick the winner, but to pick the winner using Edgic. Where this outside analysis is distinctly unhelpful is when the same subjectivity is applied in order to try to make Edgic fit the speculation. For instance, "The theme is that Fang sucks so surely everyone there is N and most are OTTN. The winner obviously must come from Kota, even if it is Corinne, so she must be not N, but misunderstood." |
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craig |
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My "overconfidence" post was to show you that EVERYONE who has been shown as overconfident has received their comeuppance and has been voted out. Paloma, Jacquie, Ace, Marcus, Charlie, Randy, Corinne. The only ones left are the two that have been only getting this theme very recently - Kenny & Sugar. Is it really possible for them to buck this season-long trend? So maybe Orthodox Edgic will get it's commuppance tto with Marcus and then Ken? Ha ha! BTW that was a theme in Amazon too, but many seasons have masterminds who turn out to be always right. The Black's Widow's only commuppance was the surprise F3 which actually helped their leader (though Parv was suitably humble at the time). Or you could say: "Everyone who is smart this season either gets screwed by a twist or outsmarts themselves" (which is sort of what Bob and Ken both did last episode). . |
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Kitty Pryde1 |
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Francois40 wrote: This is a good point. For all we know, Eden was just the theme the producers decided to base the SHOW around this season, but it's not necessarily the edit. I mean, Eden was chosen before the season was even FILMED. The theme I've noticed was that of the underdog. I mean, we've had underdogs beaten into our heads all season from Kenny's opening confessional to the whole "Fang sucks, but then they improved and became underdogs" to the recap's labelling of 6/7 of the cast as underdogs. If THAT'S the theme, then Kenny and Matty both fit it better than anyone else. |
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Casey333 |
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The only thing I can say with 100% certainty this season is that "good" will triumph over "evil".
But that doesn't help with identifying the winner since any one of the remaining six players can be considered good in one way or another. Corrine was the last of the evil players. |
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craig |
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For instance, "The theme is that Fang sucks so surely everyone there is N and most are OTTN. The winner obviously must come from Kota, even if it is Corinne, so she must be not N, but misunderstood."I've never been dogmatic about the conclusions to draw from my premises. Negative Fang editing could herald a Kota comback, or a Matty win (outside the negativity), or a F3 with Probst hates following an endgame clusterfuck (Crystal. win). The one thing it rules out if Ken heroically masterminding his was to victory. Matty winning - endgame story is that Ken screws up and Sugar hands good Matty the game. Crystal winning - endgame story is that Ken screws up, Sugar screws Matty, Sugar gets slammed by jury. In either of the latter cases, the endgame story is about Ken and Sugar losing. PS: I think they had the "Eden" theme in mind when they cast Corinne and Ace. Much easier to cast people who will give villian confessionals than manufacure evil out of nothing.
Last Edited By: craig
12/11/08 12:34 PM.
Edited 3 times.
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BlakeB717 |
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I'm going to be blunt; most people are just not happy with a Kenny win so they're trying to convince themselves otherwise. That's fine. But when he
does win, no using "at least I took a chance". You failed =D
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Casey333 |
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Fair enough, but if Ken loses, no using "It's still a partial edgic victory because ______ still fits the edgic guidelines."
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craig |
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Blake, you don't really think I'm a Matty or Crystal fan, do ya? :)
After last episode, Kenny is the most evil player left. He worked with Corinne and tried to blindside "good." However, if you know your Book of Genesis, the Eden story if about temptation and The Fall. That could point to Sugar's fall from Edited Sweetheart to a girl who is mean at TC, and who eventually betrays good Matty for an elusive shot at winning against Crystal and Susie (or Kenny if edgic majority is right).
Last Edited By: craig
12/11/08 12:43 PM.
Edited 2 times.
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BlakeB717 |
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If Kenny loses, I take full ownership for being a complete failure this season, since I have edgically eliminated everyone. But that's me, personally. craig, I understand your point of view, but Good doesn't always conquer evil. Kenny already had his "fall" last episode. They editted it with Kenny having 500,000 face shots looking at Crystal like "Oh shit". Crystal was shown smug and confident, like she knew what was going on (when in reality she probably didn't). To the audience, Kenny fucked himself over. But he'll recover and, as a true underdog, win it all. |
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Kitty Pryde1 |
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craig wrote: The problem with this thinking is that Ken also worked with Bob to try and "help" good. Plus, he wasn't shown as physically working to take out Matty. Crystal was the one who was shown considering that. Ken merely discussed the idea of voting for Matty in case Bob's idol was real. |
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scepticA |
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___
"My "overconfidence" post was to show you that EVERYONE who has been shown as overconfident has received their comeuppance and has been voted out. Paloma, Jacquie, Ace, Marcus, Charlie, Randy, Corinne." ___ I can't agree with this. Yes, most were confident (although I really don't recall the specifics of the first two.) The reason that we think this was "overconfident" is that many of these boots were absolute blindsides. And when a person has no idea their boot is imminent, everything they say - or, rather, everything the editors like to show - indicates the belief that they aren't leaving. That's what makes blindsides so exquisitely fun. The boot doesn't know it's coming. And were Randy and Corinne overconfident? Only in the sense that the fact that any confidence they had in their deceptions working was incorrect because they were booted. So even if they only had a smidgen of confidence it was too much - Why? Because they were booted. In fact, I'm wondering how almost any boot could NOT be interpreted as overconfident. Perhaps only the obvious Pagong boot, but even in those the editors try and make some tension by having us at least accept the outside possibility that there is another potential boot. Put another way - was there ever a bootee whose demeanor could be described as merely "confident" rather than "overconfident?" Let the blindsides continue. They're fun, but I doubt they're part of some greater editing theme. They're just good TV, and maybe the players have learned that a blindside is the best game play. There seems to me more of them lately. BTW - Pastordice's Cheeseburger is, as best I can tell without getting mustard all over myself, a different way to evaluate edgic results. It's based on edgic rather than some other theorem that has no basis in the edgic principles. |
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Former Lurker 2 |
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BlakeB717 wrote:You know, a lot of times they edit in shots out of context to achieve the desired effect or story. Sometimes the Survivors talk about it later. I don't think it was an accident that they showed Kenny looking surprised and Crystal with her little knowing smile when Corinne didn't play the idol and was booted. Crystal did not look surprised at all. She was also shown earlier in a confessional talking about how the idol might be a fake. "To the audience" Crystal seemed to know what would happen and Kenny didn't, based on the editing clues. In that scene, there was nothing to indicate that Kenny will recover and win it all. He may, but the editing of that TC doesn't foreshadow a Kenny win. In fact, one might argue, if one were so inclined, that the TC edit could foreshadow a Crystal win more easily than a Kenny win. I think that Crystal's edit since the recrap has been positive overall and has shown evidence of why she could be the winner. I'm not going so far as to say she will win, but I think her edit has definitely changed for the better. Kenny's blatant bragging to his sister about his position in the game and his chances of winning, on the other hand, was not really a good editing choice if he is the actual winner. It paints him as overconfident, not an underdog. It doesn't make the viewers pull from him to win any more, and there is no need to supply more evidence of how he might get votes, because they have already shown his role as a strategist. To me, his bragging was negative, and cuts against a Kenny win by making it too obvious and by making viewers start to dislike him. He's not like Brian or Rich, who were both dislikable to viewers from the beginning because of their blatant arrogance, but because they won in spite of their arrogance, the producers had no choice except to show how they were able to do that. The confessionals explained that they were deliberately playing the other Survivors. Rich and Brian were never perceived as underdogs. Kenny plots to take out Matty and fails, while Crystal, who was involved in the plot, neither participated in voting for Matty, nor was surprised when Corinne didn't play the idol. Why didn't she discuss with Kenny, her assumed alliance partner, her doubts about the idol and their plan to oust Kenny? Perhaps because, while Kenny may have wanted to be the one to vote for Matty to take the credit at final TC (meaning he is thinking ahead in the game), Crystal was willing to allow him to take the blame for the betrayal, putting a target on him and offering a means to eliminate him without damage to her (meaning she was also thinking ahead in the game). The main editing hinky for me with Kenny is the confessional scene where he describes himself as a rat and even imitates a rat and makes rat noises. It's funny, but it may be foreshadowing as well. They also keep showing the snake over and over. Snakes are always signficant in Survivor. I keep thinking of Sue's rats and snakes speech. Will the snake eat the rat this time too? If so, Kenny won't win. |
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fat little fingers |
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Loose the hounds!! Lol. Ye gads, when did I become the heavy?
Edgic is about trying to deconstruct (ei., take apart into its components) each week's episode and, using past seasons, figure out which character is the eventual winner. From this we've codified a few general trends that have a good statistical chance of occurring. That doesn't mean they all will occur, but that we are confident that the winner's edit will follow many of the guidelines. But, it's a mistake to see Edgic as having a template that the edit fits into. That's where the fun comes in. And that also leaves a lot of avenues open for looking for clues to what the editors are up to in any given season. I'm not trying to stifle any ideas that someone has concerning edit analysis. And this thread doesn't censor, outside of spoiler info. |
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getting real |
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The following is a response to PM someone sent me. However, I think these these are issues that need to be discussed
further:
Pure Edgic principles are great - they help to eliminate people who are portrayed as too far from the norm: too visible, too OTT, too one-toned, surrounded by distractions. But Edgic's definition of what we do, found on page 1 of the thread, is also this: "applying logic from past editing patterns or observations about what we have been shown." So, we look at what we're shown and we look for manipulation. Signs of manipulation logically tell us that the editors want us to take note of something that may or may not have happened in reality. So, when, in episode 1, we see Probst voice-over that what we are watching is battle being waged between selfishness and teamwork and, at the same time, we are shown those concepts exemplified by Marcus/GC and Matty/Bob respectively, we owe it to ourselves to make a file note. When teamwork is subsequently drummed into us as an essential commodity, we see a pattern emerge. It would be illogical of us, as Edgicians, to leave an interpretation of such blatant editing devices to the end of the season because, supposedly, that is the only time they can be assessed. Other examples: When we are shown, for the first time in history, people not only discussing their tribe picks but having their discussions sub-titled, it would be a dereliction of our Edgic duty not to try and ponder to the significance of such an unusual editing choice. Sure, we may discount it as totally meaningless; it doesn't matter. We owe it to ourselves to ponder where it fits in the overall scheme of things. When, for the first time ever, we are shown a confessional after an IC challenge and prior to going to a break, we again owe it to ouserselves to ask why this particular editing choice occurred at that point. When, in China, we see such editorial opposition to a challenge being thrown and, at the same time, we are shown the perpetrators laughing smugly at their victims, we should immediately conclude that the editors don't have good things in store for them. So, Jamie, the one shown as the biggest offender of the two, gets her comeuppance in being laughed off the stage in a scene which may or may not have corresponded to reality. However, it should have also told us that PG was eliminated from winning. You may disagree, but I don't believe an editor would ever show a winner in this way. Conversely, the editing surrounding Ozzy's challenge-throwing to get rid of Billy in CI was relatively benign. Which ought to have signalled to us that he was destined for the big picture. However, the little laugh that they showed Ozzy having at Billy's expense as he caused him to fall should have told us that he wasn't going to win. There are hundreds of other examples of editing manipulation. Everyone has some mentally stashed away. Danni's out-of-the-blue comments about endurance, as Panurge has pointed out. And about women. And her unnecessary birthday party scene. Countless scenes involving Terry. These are things that ought not to wait until the end of the season to examine retrospectively. If something is manipulated to be edited unusually, Edgic owes it to itself to examine why. It may come to nothing but the interpretation is where the art comes into it. Unfortunately, I don't feel science really has a part to play here, Green Coffee. Only in determing the cceptable standard deviations a winner's edit should deviate from the norm.
Last Edited By: getting real
12/11/08 5:17 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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TheLurkerSpeaks |
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Nothing in Edgic rules out looking at these things, but the key is to do it through Edgic. Jaime's laughing came off as OTTN, and James in contrast came
off looking more P (despite some arguments at the time). Jaime's edit was pretty weak already, but she had had some moments with the hidden immunity idol
clues that kept her on some lists, but very few kept her on after this episode. Peih Gee, on the other hand, was portrayed as the more strategic of the two
and as being relatively less at fault. Thus she was not eliminated and was in fact the best alternative to Todd. (And before you go too far down the road
about how the editors will or will not portray the winner, consider Jenna's edit.) The thrown challenge in S13 was seen as N for Ozzy, but it alone
wasn't enough to eliminate him, nor should it have been under Edgic.
I put little faith in winner quotes because multiple players give them, and only one can be right per season. Danni comments on women having more endurance. OK, but then you have Cindy making comparisons to Seabiscuit. One foreshadows the winner while the other is just a cute comment - the problem with putting the focus here is that it is a crapshoot. |
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BlakeB717 |
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In that scene, there was nothing to indicate that Kenny will recover and win it all. He may, but the editing of that TC doesn't foreshadow a Kenny win. In fact, one might argue, if one were so inclined, that the TC edit could foreshadow a Crystal win more easily than a Kenny win.Maybe you misunderstood me. I'm saying that to the audience, it made Crystal look like the one in control (her goals set) and Kenny's title as best strategist completely shattered. To the audience, Kenny is toast. To edgicers, at least what I think edgicers should see, this is doubt and Kenny will be the true underdog and win. Crystal is going to be the Amanda, or Sugar, or both. Crystal's going to start getting a CP-Game face and being shown very smart, while Sugar is going to probably be likeable, but both have pissed off the jury and Kenny will win. I think Kenny will, to the audience, be least likely to win after they play with his edit. Watch for the surprise! |
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