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fat little fingers wrote:

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Tropical Rain:
I think you're right to keep Matty and Ken on your radar. Not only is Marcus incredibly uninteresting, both his allies, Corinne and Charley are being completely neglected after 3 eps.

There's no reason to give Corinne or Charley anything at this point, but it looks like there might be a surprising number of Fangs in the end game.

But, the reason I don't have much winner interest in Ken and Matty has been the level of negativity directed at Original Fang. Matty has avoided the worst of it and he's also named his tribe the Goof Troop, which gives him some cushion from the worst goofs. But, Matty also lacks the end game comments that we've had from Marcus and the Onion Alliance in the opening eps.

Of all the Original Fang, Randy seems the one most likely to make the end game. There always seems to be some link between the end-gamers' opening statements and the conclusion. Randy has it, Ace has it, I think Corrine has it. No need to mention Marcus.

1) The winner may have ups and downs, but is typically not too UTR/INV or too OTT.
2) The winner will typically have a fair amount of meaningful editing and typically won't be ignored in long stretches.
3) Typically the winner is not overly Positive or Negative.
4) The winner is very unlikely to receive an INV rating during the course of the season, and will likely receive at least a 2 visibility in Episode 1.
5) Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. (The winner typically gravitates to near the top in MOR differential, which calculates the closeness to average in presence, tone and ratings).
6) Typically the winner is surrounded by players who keep our focus to distract us from the winner. These players are often OTT and much of the complexity and strategy centers in this core group. This core group can be a combination of members of more than one complex group, rather than all being from one, original tribe.
.....old 5) The tribe (or the core group that will surround a surprise winner) that has the most complex dynamics and strategy usually contains the winner.
.....old 6) Typically the winner is surrounded by the player/s receiving the distracting edit.
7) The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting.
8) The ending is typically set up to be a somewhat of a 'surprise'. You either don't expect the winner or second place to be there. These two are often manipulated in the editing to make each look like they have a chance to win.
9) If two people are a 'known final pair' then the likelihood of them actually being the final two is slim. It would need to be a situation that cannot be avoided (i.e. Amber/Rob)