Prefacing this- This is pretty much pure spec- going by editing, Probst's comments, and a tiny, tiny hint from a MySpace page. Also, Edgic is a good
concept (Tapewatcher's editing analyses were amazing.) taken to a ridiculous, stupid extreme. Edgic takes art and tries to turn it into science. And in
the process misses what's patently obvious to everyone else (Steph loses, duh.) It's about the story the editors are trying to tell. Not the
arbitrary ratings that are assigned to them. But, anyway, here we go. This is reposted from MESS.
I believe there's one person edited in a way that doesn't make sense given the episode. And it's not Marcus/Charlie. They're obviously important to the story. But they feel like misdirection, the "Hey, look, it's Aras/Yul/Earl/Todd II."
That person is Randy. I believe he wins. And here comes the rambling analysis.
The pre-credits segment contains nothing but platitudes. Nothing to see here. Yes, Marcus has a confessional. But it's fluff. No one's got a "I'm gonna win" confessional here except Crystal, who's "Early Merge Boot Walking".
Credits- There are 3 people from Fang out of order in the intro. Gillian, Michelle, and Randy. Two of them were voted out. One was not.
Post-credits introduction. This is where the interesting editing starts. We have 4 players who have confessionals attatched to their name and occupation.
Ken- Hi, I'm Ken. I'm going to win because I'm a gamer.
Crystal-Hi, I'm Crystal. I'm going to hide my Olympic Background. (I gave my run to victory speech prior to the credits.)
Corrine- I'm gonna win cause I'm a bitch!
Randy- I do wedding videos but I don't want to get married. I'm negative.
One of these 4 things is not like the other. Everyone else lays out a gamplan. Randy, on the other hand, introduces himself. Also, note. Marcus's profession is never mentioned in confessional. Only in his graphic.
Pickem-only real focus is on Charlie and it's immediately negative. Randy was "negative" in a Rudy way. This is negative in a gross way.
Kota tribe-really nothing here. Marcus again, has a confessional but it's just fluff narration. And Bob is great, but doomed (barring the other contestants having a Survivor death wish.)
Fang tribe- Randy given the first insight that Gillian's a big problem. (AKA Randy is Smart.) Then Ken/Michelle- where it's just something cute to provide a distraction for Michelle's boot and establish Ken's character.
Kota tribe- Ace is overconfident. Charlie is obsessed with Marcus. Marcus is aware and wants to use it.
Overnight at Fang- Randy's head wound- which of course needs to be shown to explain the focus. But the narrative focus is that Randy is worried it'll take him out of the game.
Fang Morning- Randy's feeling better, Michelle's miserable, and Fang is tribe "Freaks and Geeks"
Kota Morning- Ace is ridiculous. Paloma is not taking part in group activities.
Post-IC Fang- Randy states "No one wants to be leader" GC-I have immunity-also, no leader. Randy- "Why are we voting off Michelle instead of Gillian?"
TC-Michelle gone. Note, though- there was no discussion of Randy, with his gaping head wound, whatsoever.
Ep2- I'm gonna summarize this caues I don't think the other method really gets the point across. We get 2 strategies. Marcus' Onion, with him/Charlie at the core. And Randy's "Let them self-destruct." With a shot of Randy laughing as they all work around camp.
Theres' a firm pecking order established at Kota. Marcus/Charlier-Corrine-Jacquie-Bob. The traditional gameplan.
Randy is also one of the guys who helps catch the fish at Kota. When Fang goes nutso over possibly booting Dan, who do we see as the one reigning them in? Randy. The boot is Gillian, confirming that once again, Randy was right and that she should have gone first. Also, he is never mentioned as a boot possibility the entire episode.
Other stuff-
There's a Good v Evil theme later on, mentioned by Probst. Randy's MySpace mood is "Evil" Randy, though, is being shown not as "evil", but as smart, resilient, mercenary, and useful around camp, That's an awful lot of characteristics to dump onto one person in one episode. Everyone else is fairly one-dimensional. Randy may be "evil", but he's not malicious, like Charlie.
It could be that he doesn't win. Sure, it could be the predictable Marcus. But I don't think it will be. This appears to be a flip-flop season alliance-wise. Guys like Marcus don't do all that well in those type of seasons. Well-laid alliances and con-man onion alliances are awesome when there's no swap and a merge at 10. But this season likely has a swap at 15 or 14 and a merge at 12 or 11. Bad for a guy like Marcus. Good for a guy like Randy. If this were an F2 season, Randy would likely be our 3rd place finisher. But it's not. The F3 was only abandoned in Micronesia because of the injuries. (Look at the filming timeline, it doesn't make sense any other way.) It's going to be back this season, and our "Good" v "Evil" showdown may take extend all the way to the finals of the game. This is shaping up to be Randy's story- win or lose. But I strongly suspect he wins this thing, as a Kota supermajority implodes on itself post-merge.
I believe there's one person edited in a way that doesn't make sense given the episode. And it's not Marcus/Charlie. They're obviously important to the story. But they feel like misdirection, the "Hey, look, it's Aras/Yul/Earl/Todd II."
That person is Randy. I believe he wins. And here comes the rambling analysis.
The pre-credits segment contains nothing but platitudes. Nothing to see here. Yes, Marcus has a confessional. But it's fluff. No one's got a "I'm gonna win" confessional here except Crystal, who's "Early Merge Boot Walking".
Credits- There are 3 people from Fang out of order in the intro. Gillian, Michelle, and Randy. Two of them were voted out. One was not.
Post-credits introduction. This is where the interesting editing starts. We have 4 players who have confessionals attatched to their name and occupation.
Ken- Hi, I'm Ken. I'm going to win because I'm a gamer.
Crystal-Hi, I'm Crystal. I'm going to hide my Olympic Background. (I gave my run to victory speech prior to the credits.)
Corrine- I'm gonna win cause I'm a bitch!
Randy- I do wedding videos but I don't want to get married. I'm negative.
One of these 4 things is not like the other. Everyone else lays out a gamplan. Randy, on the other hand, introduces himself. Also, note. Marcus's profession is never mentioned in confessional. Only in his graphic.
Pickem-only real focus is on Charlie and it's immediately negative. Randy was "negative" in a Rudy way. This is negative in a gross way.
Kota tribe-really nothing here. Marcus again, has a confessional but it's just fluff narration. And Bob is great, but doomed (barring the other contestants having a Survivor death wish.)
Fang tribe- Randy given the first insight that Gillian's a big problem. (AKA Randy is Smart.) Then Ken/Michelle- where it's just something cute to provide a distraction for Michelle's boot and establish Ken's character.
Kota tribe- Ace is overconfident. Charlie is obsessed with Marcus. Marcus is aware and wants to use it.
Overnight at Fang- Randy's head wound- which of course needs to be shown to explain the focus. But the narrative focus is that Randy is worried it'll take him out of the game.
Fang Morning- Randy's feeling better, Michelle's miserable, and Fang is tribe "Freaks and Geeks"
Kota Morning- Ace is ridiculous. Paloma is not taking part in group activities.
Post-IC Fang- Randy states "No one wants to be leader" GC-I have immunity-also, no leader. Randy- "Why are we voting off Michelle instead of Gillian?"
TC-Michelle gone. Note, though- there was no discussion of Randy, with his gaping head wound, whatsoever.
Ep2- I'm gonna summarize this caues I don't think the other method really gets the point across. We get 2 strategies. Marcus' Onion, with him/Charlie at the core. And Randy's "Let them self-destruct." With a shot of Randy laughing as they all work around camp.
Theres' a firm pecking order established at Kota. Marcus/Charlier-Corrine-Jacquie-Bob. The traditional gameplan.
Randy is also one of the guys who helps catch the fish at Kota. When Fang goes nutso over possibly booting Dan, who do we see as the one reigning them in? Randy. The boot is Gillian, confirming that once again, Randy was right and that she should have gone first. Also, he is never mentioned as a boot possibility the entire episode.
Other stuff-
There's a Good v Evil theme later on, mentioned by Probst. Randy's MySpace mood is "Evil" Randy, though, is being shown not as "evil", but as smart, resilient, mercenary, and useful around camp, That's an awful lot of characteristics to dump onto one person in one episode. Everyone else is fairly one-dimensional. Randy may be "evil", but he's not malicious, like Charlie.
It could be that he doesn't win. Sure, it could be the predictable Marcus. But I don't think it will be. This appears to be a flip-flop season alliance-wise. Guys like Marcus don't do all that well in those type of seasons. Well-laid alliances and con-man onion alliances are awesome when there's no swap and a merge at 10. But this season likely has a swap at 15 or 14 and a merge at 12 or 11. Bad for a guy like Marcus. Good for a guy like Randy. If this were an F2 season, Randy would likely be our 3rd place finisher. But it's not. The F3 was only abandoned in Micronesia because of the injuries. (Look at the filming timeline, it doesn't make sense any other way.) It's going to be back this season, and our "Good" v "Evil" showdown may take extend all the way to the finals of the game. This is shaping up to be Randy's story- win or lose. But I strongly suspect he wins this thing, as a Kota supermajority implodes on itself post-merge.
