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S17 - Week 10 Story Arcs

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Jaborwok		#21	[-]
Posts: 1596 (11/21/08 6:34 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Birdlady said: My best guess at this point is that the promo bit we saw had part of the conversation chopped out. I think it's more like "What if I tell ?Kenny that Marcus didn't really throw the idol in the ocean..." I think Bob is proposing to Corinne that they pull a trick on Fang, like Sugar pulled on him." That does sound good to me, and I hope it is true.....and Jeff did talk a lot about how the power of the idol isn't really understood by these players, so maybe this will happen.
Trixiego		#22	[-]
Posts: 15826 (11/21/08 7:22 PM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Insofar as to feelings about Bob lying to Randy and hurting him by doing that Reality TV World: Weren't you a little suspicious that Bob was so willing to give the Idol to you seeing as [his own neck] was going to be on the line too? Randy: Yeah I know, and Bob is not a -- Bob would not make a fool out of somebody just to make a fool out of them. He's not that kind of guy. After thinking about it a few days I figured he'd been helped with that decision. Last night showed that. So again, we just don't know how this little sting is going to be seen by people and I agree that Bob may be telling Corrine a way they can try and save themselves. I have hinkies that at least one of the Fang contingent won't outlast either Bob or Corrinne
Jedijake		#23	[-]
Posts: 5309 (11/21/08 7:47 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Sugar's toast next week. Watch and see. She's made too many deals and screwed too many people over but sadly doesn't even realize it. Plus, Kenny, Crystal, and Matty know she has the idol. She's a goner.
crocophile		#24	[-]
Posts: 10333 (11/21/08 8:28 PM) MESS Moderator More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Thanks Trix that goes along with what, I've been thinking. Bob was playing the game, he did not participate in any humiliation...I don't see where it will hurt him. In fact just the opposite. He's working with Sugar. Corinne needs to work with him, and there are others like Matty and Susie who are insecure and approachable . IMO Bob put himself right in the middle of it. That includes the jury, since this will be seen as a game move. He may not have won votes, but I doubt he's lost them. I don't think Sugar is next, but she had better be careful. She's done well to not overplay it, bit last TC was a bit OTT. She can't afford to keep that up, or she will become next.
dagny1331		#25	[-]
Posts: 2455 (11/21/08 8:42 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I hate Thanksgiving recaps. I agree with those who think Bob and Corinne's convo is something other than Bob explaining where he got the idol he gave Randy.
trinity17888		#26	[-]
Posts: 588 (11/21/08 9:31 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	birdlady wrote: My best guess at this point is that the promo bit we saw had part of the conversation chopped out. I think it's more like "What if I tell ?Kenny that Marcus didn't really throw the idol in the ocean..." I think Bob is proposing to Corinne that they pull a trick on Fang, like Sugar pulled on him. That must be it. Bob can't try to convince Corinne that the idol he gave Randy was the Ocean Idol since the Ocean Idol was real. Obviously the one he gave to Randy was fake.
birdlady		#27	[-]
Posts: 1880 (11/21/08 9:59 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Here's the imagery from the beginning of the episode 11 promo, just for hinkie fodder. (Did we have hinkies before this season? I guess normally they are masked by spoilers?) I'm not sure what the ones in the mist are, but cattle have generally been associated with Crystal, although they don't much ever seen to do anything. Er, yeah. We also had the little Kenny boat scene. (I'm going to try to call him Ken, now that he has become a man.) Dawn over the cattle, sunset over the boat?
rower	Week 10 Story Arcs	#28	[-]
Posts: 1781 (11/21/08 10:35 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I don't think Bob and Corrine are going to try and fool old Fang with the Marcus story. Remember Bob has already told Sugar he didn't have the idol and that he made one instead.
crocophile		#29	[-]
Posts: 10334 (11/22/08 4:21 AM) MESS Moderator More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	"Did we have hinkies before this season?" Oh yes indeed, right Madame Pez?
Trixiego		#30	[-]
Posts: 15827 (11/22/08 11:35 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	crocophile wrote: "Did we have hinkies before this season?" Oh yes indeed, right Madame Pez? Oh yah dear croc, an overdose of Pez and hinkies is a longstanding tradition :-)
montanagirl		#31	[-]
Posts: 676 (11/22/08 3:32 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'm not having major hinkies about anyone at this point - it is looking to me like a Kenny win at this point. I would hope for gaming sake that everyone left would see that Kenny would need to be voted out at the first given opportunity, but I don't think that will happen. Loved Randy taking his assiness over the top to make sure they would vote for him. It's just too bad that Bob's idol wasn't a real one. That would have been the best.tribal.ever. for sure! Bob was pretty frank about the FHII - he said he knew it couldn't save him by using it himself, so he let him save it by letting Randy 'use' it. Randy gave him the perfect setup and he took it. I also think that the preview about him talking about Marcus's ocean HII is he and Corinne trying to hatch a plan against the Fangs. I really don't see how Corinne could fall for yet another FHII - seeing as everyone actually saw the one that Marcus threw away. The only thing for that would be to convince the Fangs that he really does have it. That would scare them because they all know that one is real (even if is is, in reality, nonexistent). Have been loving Sugar right up until last episode. Yes, she was being masterful getting everyone to vote out Randy when they wanted to vote out Bob, but Randy helped her out a LOT with that. But I hated how smug, childish, and rude she was with all the laughing at TC and junk. Still not digging Crystal, but I had to laugh at her TC Confessional yelling. Wish I had a screen cap of JP during that little rant. Corinne is still meh. They are not showing enough of her nasty attitude. I know she really hates everyone who is left, but has she said this to anyone's face yet? Matty is also meh to me. Yeah, he's nice and all, but he doesn't do a thing for me. Hoping Bob and Corinne can convince the Fangs that he is their biggest threat - the nice guy who is a major challenge threat. Kenny is being sly - and while he's a bit of a slimy bastard, he's playing a good game. If they don't get him out as soon as the opportunity presents itself, he's winning this game. Susie is not getting my vote. I'm not sure what exactly it is, but I can't bring myself to like this lady. SHe is certainly no Cirie, that's for sure.
Que		#32	[-]
Posts: 1192 (11/22/08 3:44 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I don't see Sugar leaving anytime soon, unless Corrine can get Bob and Matty to get rid of her. She was instrumental in cutting out the cancer...(Randy) Crystal is grateful, and Suzi is too. Both of them loathed Randy. Sugar hasn't backstabbed any of them.. (Matty, Crystal, Kenny, Suzi) She helped Crystal and Kenny get rid of ACE her F2 guy. Now she sweet talks Bob into her plan as well. Corrine is the only one right now who has spoken ill of her. Unless Corrine win Immunity or pulls off a miracle she's toast. Sugar will save Bob from this vote but telling them how went along with the fake out of Randy etc... Now if she is really devious...she would try to get to help get rid of Kenny...he's got game and he is doing VERY well in challenges. He also is the only one old KOTA will vote for in an f2 situation. Notice how he conceded all the auction prizes instead of outbidding the others.... SMART, NICE GUY, etc..... AND THEN take out Matty. But I don't see that happening... I see F4 of Kenny Crystal Matty and Sugar. The 5 old Kotas will have a majority vote. I can see them voting for either matty or Kenny. The old Kotas are going to be a very bitter bunch. Suzi screwed up thier chances to win. Along with Kenny and Crystal they had the nerve to oust the KING MARCUS... who was soooo deserving (acording to Corrine) Kenny is F2 I think... remeber after Marus was voted out and Corrine stated why he was the one who "deserved" to be here the most...etc. It was Kenny who called her out and asked WHY? why was Marcus any more deserving than him? a bit forshadowing prehaps.
montanagirl		#33	[-]
Posts: 678 (11/22/08 4:12 PM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	If there is ever a plan to get Kenny out, I'd bet that Sugar will be at the heart of it. But will there even be an opportunity to do so?
Coachocd		#34	[-]
Posts: 7346 (11/23/08 12:59 AM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I never underestimate the ability of castaways to miss the obvious. It would have been obvious to ANY sane person in All Stars that Rob/Amber should have been broken up and could have been broken up, but the "stupid, stupid people" didn't do it. This is why emotional game play is the cardinal sin in this game. Instead of going after Susie for "revenge", Corrine, Bob and Randy should have been thinking, "who is the real heart of the dominant alliance"? And how can that person be overthrown? Sugar knows that Kenny is the rat who played her over Ace. Would she even be proactive enough to get rid of him as the threat to HER? Why do Matty and Sugar not ask themselves why they are willing to settle for 4/5th place? There are 7 people left in the game. As Kathy said, eventually the numbers limit your options. 7 and 9 are the best numbers for an overthrow. If Kenny doesn't have immunity, as the brains of the dominant alliance, that is the time for Matty/Sugar/Corrine/Bob to get together to eliminate him. However, I expect the obvious to be missed.... again.
Kirblar		#35	[-]
Posts: 7004 (11/23/08 7:53 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	However, I expect the obvious to be missed.... again. The problem with an overthrow at 7 this season is that there's no benefit for one of Susie/Ken/Crystal/Sugar to flip and team up with Matty. None of them can beat him in the F3 because he never did anything to anger the Onions, who will likely make up the majority of the Jury. Emotions ARE running high this season, but I don't see a lot of the play as actually being all that emotional. It's just that there aren't many options available for the contestants. When alliances consist of 5 or less people, they are near-impossible for an outsider to crack. It's far more likely you'll see an interrupted pagonging instead of a power shift or flip/flop season. It's why I really, really hate merges at 9 or less- they are far, far more likely to cause a stable, boring endgame than a 10-person merge simply because with 10 people you need 6 people to vote someone out, creating an unstable coalition by virtue of neccessity. With the way the F10 turned out this season, we were likely going to be seeing a pagonging or near-pagoning. Had the Onions taken over at an F10 merge, they would have been able to steamroll to the finals due to Bob being content to let them win, and Randy believing he was in the F4. Had Fang peeled Susie off and used Sugar's HII to break the 6-4 or 5-5 F10 vote, we get...the same situation we have now. (It's why I really can't feel sorry for the Onions claiming they were screwed by the twist- they marginalized a vote they 100% needed when the other side had a trump card.) Last Edited By: Kirblar 11/23/08 8:05 AM. Edited 2 times.
tullfan2		#36	[-]
Posts: 2945 (11/23/08 9:07 AM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	never underestimate the ability of castaways to miss the obvious. It would have been obvious to ANY sane person in All Stars that Rob/Amber should have been broken up and could have been broken up, but the "stupid, stupid people" didn't do it. This just shows an obvious bias. Why would Rupert or Jenna Lewis flip when they thought that they were guaranteed Final 4? Big Tom was convinced that he would make Final 3. Why would he flip when he probably would do no better siding with Kathy/Shii Ann at Final 7 or with Rupert/Jenna at Final 5 and pissing off prospective jurors in the process? Alicia was the only one who might have benefited by flipping and she still needed someone else to join her and we saw what happened when Shii Ann approached her about it. Last Edited By: tullfan2 11/23/08 9:09 AM. Edited 1 times.
Kirblar		#37	[-]
Posts: 7005 (11/23/08 9:15 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	All-Stars was a 5-person alliance with a 6th tagalong member. (Which was why it was near-impossible to crack.)
Coachocd		#38	[-]
Posts: 7347 (11/23/08 10:25 AM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	tullfan2 wrote: never underestimate the ability of castaways to miss the obvious. It would have been obvious to ANY sane person in All Stars that Rob/Amber should have been broken up and could have been broken up, but the "stupid, stupid people" didn't do it. This just shows an obvious bias. Why would Rupert or Jenna Lewis flip when they thought that they were guaranteed Final 4? Big Tom was convinced that he would make Final 3. Why would he flip when he probably would do no better siding with Kathy/Shii Ann at Final 7 or with Rupert/Jenna at Final 5 and pissing off prospective jurors in the process? Alicia was the only one who might have benefited by flipping and she still needed someone else to join her and we saw what happened when Shii Ann approached her about it. Bias? You are right. I am biased towards smart game play and Rupert, Jenna, Tom and Alicia all fell short.. The game isn't about making the final 3, 4 or 5, it was about making the final 2 and in a way that leaves the jury still willing to vote for you as the lesser of two evils.. Rupert, Tom and Jenna all should have realized that with Rob and Amber as the immunity threats and as a couple, it would have shut all of them out of the final 2. If they were only thinking about getting to the final 3, 4 or 5, that was a BIG flaw in their strategy. That Tom and Alicia thought they had final 2 deals with Rob is absurd. And, Shii Ann's approach to Alicia went sour because of Alicia, not Shii Ann. As for pissing off potential jurors, Rob was held eventually accountable by making deals with everyone and backstabbing his way to the top. Rupert, Jenna, Big Tom and Alicia acted like "stupid, stupid people" first in getting played by Rob and second by not seeing that they weren't going anywhere near the final 2 with Romber as a couple. Accuse me of bias if you want, but I'm accusing them of inadequate game play. Amber was the only one that season who played a reasonable end game out of the Chapera 5, and she rightfully won for all the reasons Shii Ann illustrated in her voting confessional. Getting back to this season, if the remaining castaways believe it is a final 2 or 3, then the others need to ask themselves who is headed there. If Matty and Sugar doesn't see they are headed for 4th or 5th place, and they are happy to settle for that, that's a flaw in their strategy. If Kathy, Paschal, Neleh, Sean and Vee can organize themselves together and if Chris, Eliza, Twila and Scout and can organize themselves together, there is no reason why Corrine, Bob, Matty and Sugar couldn't organize themselves together to take out at least one of Ken, Crystal or Susie to give themselves a better chance. Last Edited By: Coachocd 11/23/08 10:38 AM. Edited 1 times.
crzypunk2004		#39	[-]
Posts: 3838 (11/23/08 10:30 AM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The things is we don't really know what's going on inside the fang 5. On the show it's led to believe it's a Susie/Kenny/Crystal vs Sugar/Matty, but the insiders it's actually Sugar/Crystal/Kenny vs Susie/Matty. I think Matty is heading for a fall, we saw Randy forshadowing matty coming in 5th place and sugar realizing Matty is starting to play the game.
Coachocd		#40	[-]
Posts: 7348 (11/23/08 10:40 AM) MESS member More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	crzypunk2004 wrote: The things is we don't really know what's going on inside the fang 5. On the show it's led to believe it's a Susie/Kenny/Crystal vs Sugar/Matty, but the insiders it's actually Sugar/Crystal/Kenny vs Susie/Matty. I think Matty is heading for a fall, we saw Randy forshadowing matty coming in 5th place and sugar realizing Matty is starting to play the game. I agree that Matty is probably headed for a fall soon unless he does something. Probst did say in his blog that Matty was too honest to win. That's probably right. Matty is probably headed for a fall unless he does something or goes on a four IC in a row immunity run and this week is probably his last chance to shake up the end game.

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S17 - Week 10 Story Arcs