Noticed how they only mentioned her wealth once way back in episode 2, I think if she loses in the F2 despite playing a good game we are suppose to remember that episode. Brendan supposedly told people about his wealth but it hasn't been shown.
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crzypunk2004 |
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If someone is to go in the EA then I think it will be Brendan, he's the only one to be set up as a possible boot option out of the 4. but it could go
either way, either he blindsides tyson/Coach or they blindside him. I think Taj will stick around for a while, because you saw her knocked down a peg after
being so confident about the alliance. She realized she still could be in danger even with a perfect alliance, I think that bodes well for her longetivity but
I don't think she wins, I'm sensing F2 loser.
Noticed how they only mentioned her wealth once way back in episode 2, I think if she loses in the F2 despite playing a good game we are suppose to remember that episode. Brendan supposedly told people about his wealth but it hasn't been shown.
Last Edited By: crzypunk2004
03/15/09 10:17 AM.
Edited 1 times.
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Jedijake |
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I'm wondering if we aren't look at a double standard here. Sierra is cocky and it's endearing. Someone else is cocky and it's, well, cocky.
The troubling thing is that there IS no opposing strong alliance that counters the EA. Coach is with Tyson but they haven't officially declared Debra as part of that. She is being hidden. Erinn is completely by herself. Erinn is going to be VERY instrumental in what happens when decisions about the EA have to be made. Will she be brought into that alliance as a free agent, giving her a solid #5 position? Or does she and Coach make up and Erinn is used to help break down the EA? And while Stephen is currently the only one not completely committed to the EA, is he part of what breaks it down? Does that signify reasons why he would lose? Are we being set up to think he can be trusted and led around but later he screws his own alliance over, costing jury votes? If we have a final 3, Erinn, Stephen, and Sierra are heading down that road. If it's a final 2, it's any of them. And I think that if Erinn is in the final 2, she actually gets votes from Tyson and Coach. That's the irony we are being set up for. I don't see it the other way around. I don't see either Tyson or Coach facing a jury. We have their stories already in front of us and THEIR reactions are more important now than others toward them. And the JT/Stephen thing is also important. Their loyalty must come into play later. JT doesn't seem like a legitimate finalist. His reaction to someone who betrays him is important however. Taj and Brenden will be getting too much power. The thing that may redeem Sierra's statements will be if there is skepticism over the EA from within its own ranks. Sierra's comfort is erased when she realizes that Brenden/Taj plan to take the entire game. Stephen convinces Sierra that is the case and BOOM, enter Erinn as a designated hitter to breakdown the EA power duo. That would be a fun way for the season to go from here on out. Anything can happen. I am rooting for Sierra, but we know how that goes. However, whether I root for her does not influence how I see her ratings. I think we are in for a doozy of a merge this season! |
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Katy Carney |
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colleenlover wrote: I believe it was Sydney and Spencer that mentioned Sierra, but yes that was out of the blue. Both the scenes with her "quick lies" seemed very unnecessary too. Those are the two main things that keep Sierra high on my list. But why include Sydney saying "Sierra is kind of a cute one" and then show the response "She's very angry"? But I don't agree that Stephen is being made to look like a follower. He is the only one who is not blindly following the alliance. Is it because he wins or is it just to foreshadow the downfall of the alliance? Idk. It's a bit like trying to figure out what the puzzle shows before you have all the pieces. |
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Oowatanite |
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Final Ratings (unless I decide to change them)
JT OTT3 Joe MOR3 Spencer CP4 Stephen CP3 Sydney UTRP2 Taj OTTM5 Ben UTRN2 Brendan MOR3 Debbie UTR1 Erinn UTR1 Sierra UTR2 Tyson MOR1 |
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colleenlover |
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katy, who said Stephen's being edited to be a follower- quite contrary all the way. I think he's said he'll allow to be perceived as a follower
-JT's goof ball, but that's it. (errily mirroring Tyson and Coach)
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Katy Carney |
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colleenlover wrote: Kitty said she feels Sierra is being edited to have shown initiative when it comes to the EA but Stephen is being edited as a follower. |
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fat little fingers |
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Before the episode's opening credits:
Stephen, "...As long as it's in my possession, I'm gonna try and keep it in my possession. /break/ Theoretically, ostensibly, it is mine /break/ I'm the one wearing the idol around my neck." Right off the bat, Stephen tells us he has no intention of giving up the idol. Stephen on his meeting Brendan: "Brendan. My first impression of him is positive, but wary. He's obviously an extremely strong player /break/ and he's, you know, mentally strong and he's clearly strategically strong /break/ but /break/ it's hard to trust someone who /break/ you, know, I've known him for five minutes. I can't place my entire faith in the game on him. /break/ So, I might keep this 2-tribe alliance in the back of my head as something that might be there, but I can't place my entire faith on this 4-person alliance." Unlike the other three alliance members, Stephen is cautiously and wisely analyzing the members, as he meets them. Unlike the others, he does not have all his eggs in one basket and regards the Exile alliance as just one possible future option. None of Stephen's confessionals show weakness. He's thinking independently. Nowhere in his season has he made a statement of blind faith or loyalty to a person (JT) or an alliance, but instead he tells us he is placing his chances for survival on his being alert and aware of all the angles. This was a powerful episode for Stephen. |
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cindidindi76 |
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RobVanStratus wrote: I can't wait for head coach Tyson!! |
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taks |
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flf, I agree with your analysis of the contrast between Stephen's edit and the others in the Exile alliance.
Stephen seems to have the must coherent, developed and manipulated story arc so far. A few of us mentioned, even before this episode, how his edit seemed to be around the first impression he gives that he is easy to lead. In episode one, Sandy stated that she thought the geeky guy looked like he was easy to lead around. Then, in episode four we get Taj mentioning how Stephen is like the nerdy guy who just wants to help. Well, Stephen is clearly aware of this perception of himself. His episode one self-description is that of an "anxious New York Jew" who's a little bit screwed to be around good ol' Southern boys. Then, he references this again in episode two with his comment regarding looking like JT's "goofy awkward right hand man". However, he recognizes it as a way to get people to "want to keep me around longer". Finally, in this episode we have Brendan cementing his relationship with Stephen, showing no signs of doubt at all, even if he's only known him for "five minutes". Stephen obviously, feels different as flf has transcribed. In a season which touted first impressions and devoted more than a few TCQ's to it, Stephen certainly fits the winning bill. He knows how he's percieved and knows how to use it as an advantage. No one seems to question his loyalty at all. Strangely, there's no quote from JT which paints Stephen as goofy/awkward/nerdy or easy to lead around, but I'm willing to overlook that. (For many of the same reasons, I believe Sierra is a strong contender. Stephen just, to me, seems more complex.) Side note: This contrast in trust between Stephen and Taj/Brendan/Sierra seems a lot like a tribal council conversation we heard in episode two...
ERINN WINS! =P |
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DeadNotSleeping |
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On Momentum Just me, or is momentum becoming somewhat of a theme? Probst keeps mentioning it as if he's just learned the word. If it is, doesn't bode well for the EA, while Tyson and Erinn may still have their day in the sun.
Stephen Had a fantastic episode. After this, I'm moving him firmly ahead of Sierra. He reacted in the perfect way to the EA, exactly as viewers are getting annoyed with the other three celebrating their obvious victory down the line yelling "FINAL FOUR, BABY!" waving foam hands in the air and such.
And I don't completely get the "should have been more involved in the votes" argument against Stephen. They can't show all of the relationships and alliances and stuff, and they never do, but Stephen has been portrayed as either making the decision himself or influencing the decision via JT in two out of the three times Jalapao went to TC. He's involved in the votes, just in a somewhat convoluted way.
Next episode: He can make-due with almost anything without losing ground. A scene having to do with JT and what he plans to do with him in the future would be nice. I'm also pretty sure Timbira loses IC, since the "going into the merge 5\5" has been mentioned and Tyson's revelation means very little if Timbira don't get a chance to vote out Brendan, so I'm working with that in mind.
Sierra I agree with whoever said another UTR will count against Sierra's edit. She's sufficiently cooled down. She's cool. What she needs now is to say something actually perceptive. We know she can. I mean, Sierra has done nothing but celebrate her awesome game play and amazing sure-to-beat-everyone alliance for two episodes now (out of… you know… five). I get that there's not much else going on with her, but it's still a point against her edit. She needs some humbling, and sooner rather then later.
If the editors are using her as a tool to manufacture doubt or to juxtapose her happiness with Tyson understanding what's going on, I think it's a miss-fire on their part. It doesn't click. This is episode 5. Relax with the triumphant-ness.
Next Episode: Not another UTR or MOR2 or anything like that. A strong MOR episode, or a CP. One where she makes stuff happen would be great.
Erinn
I think that while she is being presented as a foil to Coach, that doesn't mean her edit is all about him and Tyson. It's really not. You basically know everything you should about her and her "alliance of one" status, and I'd venture to say she is the most personal development out of anyone out there. You know how much she wants to be there, you know she recently went through a horrible break up, and how that affected her game. It's probably much easier to just let viewers assume she's anti-social. Why is it important for us to hear excuses for Erinn's bad gameplay (because that's what it is, and she is indeed very lucky Jerry got sick)?
Next Episode: She needs actual strategy talk, preferably long-term. Stuff having to do with voting, or alliances or stuff. We need to be shown her head's in the game instead of being told about it.
Tyson Had a pretty fantastic episode that almost caused me to bump him over Erinn. I don't get any rating other than CP for him, to be honest.
I think Tyson's negativity is causing many people to overlook him completely, while he is actually one of the most developed people out there (I'd venture to say you understand Tyson as a person more than you do, let's say, Sierra) and his current game has been explained to us by him. Follow Coach, use him as a shield, blindside if necessary.
Next episode: best would be a high visibility toneless CP having little or nothing to do with Erinn, I think. An N wouldn't bother me too much.
On cOTT and cUTR I think I'm going to try and take some time in the three weeks until the next episode to have a look at the first five episodes of the season and re-rate them using the cUTR\UTR and cOTT\OTT. I'm planning on bringing the whole thing up again at the end of the season, and I think it'll be nice to see how the season would have been rated (by me, at least) if a complexity add-on was possible. Is there any interest in seeing the chart here, or should I just hold on with the whole thing until the season is over?
Actual Ratings
JT - OTT3 (I could see MOR3) Joe - MOR3 Spencer - CPP4 Stephen - CP3 (felt a slight N, which is interesting) Sydney - UTR2 Taj - CPM5+\cOTTM5+ (Joe has a better chance at winning. btw, I came to the conclusion that story wise, Taj is Moses. Which explains the outfit)
Coach - CPN2\cUTRN2 (I know I'm alone here, but his confessional regarding Brendan was very insightful) Tyson - CP2 (He wasn't under the radar or over the top, he just has low visibility) Brendan - MOR3 Debbie - UTR1 Erinn - UTR1 Sierra - UTR2
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SJHalle |
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fat little fingers wrote: I interpreted his comments differently and not at all related to winning the game. I think the importance of his reservations about the Exile Alliance and particularly about Brendan, are to foreshadow his eventual betrayal of the group when he orchestrates a Brendan blindside. He probably sells out Taj/Brendan/Sierra to Coach/Tyson/Debbie in order to save JT in the early stages of an attempted Jalapao Pagonging. Both the Coach/Merhag/Tyson group and Stephen himself were shown making comments about Brendan and all at least alluded to the reasoning for his eventual departure from the game. This scenario also explains how Stephen will show that he cannot "be led around real easy." Sandy's comments in the Episode 1 opening sequence foreshadow Stephen making big moves for himself and not just following in the shadow of power players like Brendan and Taj. The JT and Stephen friendship/pairing is shown to help explain why this happens and why Stephen would go against the Exile Alliance when he does. Finally, I don't necessarily think that my interpretation here hurts Stephen's chances of ultimately winning the game, but I don't think they give him a sudden edge over Sierra either. |
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Riliss |
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I LUV TIJUANA wrote:How is it that years have passed and you're still a stupid piece of shit? |
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Phoenix1269 |
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Re: Voting Site
Since we have a silly number of days before the next real episode... is there anyone out there who would like more time for Voting? Normally, I'd close it down on Monday Night, but I have no problems extending it until... whenever... I've noticed that the voting numbers are way down this week, so let me know when you would like to have it open until. |
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mahdoo |
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SJHalle wrote:Excellent, thought-provoking points on Stephen's edit so far. I have found, and am wondering about a contradiction in the spoken and written wording printed on-screen for the audience when Stephen is shown hugging Taj in the water (in next-time on survivor after ep.5). Taj's face is buried in Stephen's hug, and to me, there is no doubt that Taj exclaims "I can't take it......" The words on the screen tell us she said "I can take it." (either Sandy or Sidney was the only other person in the water shown watching this moment.) My question is, did the editor misunderstand Taj's comment, or was that a deliberate edit to manipulate the audience? Its just a small thing I noticed, I don't think it has any great importance to the game's outcome. |
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BlakeB717 |
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Also, keep in mind that Taj and Brendan have met everyone from the exile alliance: Stephen and
Sierra have yet to meet. Overconfidence in their group should reflect negatively on Taj and Brendan, but Sierra and Stephen don't know
each other--Sierra's confidence is just: she was in a bad spot and Brendan and Taj are telling her she's perfectly safe and that Stephen is cool.
Stephen also didn't learn about it until late--he already had his thing with JT, and we had no idea he was even close to Taj, so his
weariness is also just.
I think it's definitely between the two of them for the win: Sierra or Stephen. I'm giving the edge to Sierra--the music and confessional she got at exile was so-o unnecessary. REMEMBER.... 6) Typically the winner is surrounded by players who keep our focus to distract us from the winner. These players are often OTT and much of the complexity and strategy centers in this core group. This core group can be a combination of members of more than one complex group, rather than all being from one, original tribe. |
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SurvivorBuff22 |
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So were all of Amanda's reaction shots.
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Phoenix1269 |
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Jalapao
JT OTT3 JT's story was very much about the challenges i think. He's doing everything he can to win...even losing a tooth! and he shows that he's frustrated when others don't try as hard.... to the point that JT gets his way and votes out Spencer for not performing. I went with neutral, but really i could see a slight Pand I didn't find JT to be portrayed negative at all... the frustration moment at the end of the IC was not negative considering the circumstances of just losing a tooth and blowing a huge lead. Also, the letters from home were quite positive and JT's reactions were subtitled through out. Spencer CP4 A really great exit edit. We learned a lot about Spencer here, and we understood his whys for what/how he's done what he's done. I did not find him overly positive or overly negative... the one slight negative moment to him was that he let his first impressions of southern men/JT prevent him from making connections to the rest of his tribe. Since we already know that JT is NOT like the typical stereo-type via the E1-E2 storyline with Stephen, this SPV is not N for JT, but slightly N for Spencer...even if his reasonings / experiences are correct. It's so slight though, that Neutral is best here. Joe MOR3 Joe hurt his knee... Joe wants to vote out Taj... Joe is accused of not connecting with Taj and we hear nothing from him on it. Joe builds up Taj's story about the idol and trust... Except for the knee injury, Joe's story is about defining Taj. I expect him to be gone soon due to the knee thing. Sydney UTR2 Sydney had a dream about here boyfriend and salsa. Sydney didn't figure out Spencer was gay. Sydney shot balls at the IC. Sydney is pretty... but that's about all. Stephen CP3 We learned so much from Stephen... We know where he stands regarding the idol, and we know he's slightly conflicted on it. We also see that, wisely, he is cautious of the EA, he hasn't discounted it, he knows it's important, and he knows it can't be his only plan. Unlike the 3 musketeers who think that the plan is "perfect" and that it's "smooth sailing" all the way, etc. He was also the one "sound voice" in the aftermath of the Taj hysteria... Joe tells us in confessional..."stuff liek that will get you voted out" but then we see Stephen telling Je & JT "She's upset, yes it was emotional, but at least YOU KNOW IT"S HONEST." I could see a slight N for the keepin-the-idol-for-myself speech...but really...that's just smart game play AND it also shows that Stephen will not be lead around by others. Great episode for Stephen Taj CPM5 I considered OTT for her for the angry scene, but then realized that there was really too much going on. We hear about how she's fitting / not fitting into the tribe, we hear about the EA some more, and we hear about why she voted Joe the previous TC and we hear about how frustrated she is, especially with her recent IC performance, etc, etc.... I really don't think we missed anything that wasn't from her point of view. She's definately mixed...positive editing with finding the idl and the family letters scene, but negative edit with the "hot & angry" scene and also for the "dumb" moment of not understanding that when you find the idol... you don't give it away!!!! Timbira Coach UTRN2 I actually thought this was pretty tough... you see... all along, everything that Coach has been saying has been contradicted... well... almost everything. Seriously... the man's ego is insane...but once in a while, he gets things right. No matter what you think of Coach or Candace, he was right that she was negative. He was also right about it being unclassy that Erinn was happy when she realized that Jerry was sick. The way he goes about that is another thing entirely... but that isn't the point... the point is, once again, we get from Coach an observation on another player that was SPOT ON... Brendan's exile trips and what it mean's for Coach. Of course... immediately we get Mother Nature laying the smack down and Erinn reminding us that Coach is a jackass... but there you go.... even Coach can be right once in a while. Negative for the supported SPV from Erinn, but in reality i think it's actually a pretty weak N compared to some of his others. Brendan MOR3 For someone who is so involved in all the action, this guy is really pretty bland. He seems to get all the pretty, fluffy talk... but with no real substance. Like whipped cream i guess. In Brendan's world, things are coming up roses...even with making an alliance with someone he's only just met, but we the viewers know that at least one person in the EA is wise enough to know not to trust it implicitly. Meanwhile, Brendan's got it coming from the other side too.... Tyson and Coach have noticed what he's been up too... and Debbie too. Welcome to Survivor 101, Brendan. Debbie UTR1 When she learns about the EA... She tells Coach & Tyson (and us) that Sierra can't be trusted with Operation: EB (Eliminate Brendan). Erinn UTR1 Erinn decides she is on the wrong show and should have tried out for Last Comic Standing. Sierra-Two-Two UTR2 Sierra DID NOT NEED ANOTHER COOL DOWN. She DID NOT need to tell us AGAIN that she is sitting pretty now. It's like every episode the editors feel like the need to have her repeat what she did last episode. E1, I'm sick, I'm in danger, whatever. E2. I'm sick, I'm in danger, whatever., I'm not stupid. E3, I'm not stupid. E4 YAY, Exile Alliance. I'm on top now!. E5: Yay, Exile Alliance, I'm on top now! No...Sierra did not need another repetition episode, she needs new material. Between this stuttering of her edit, the lack of PERSONAL INFO (I'm with Katy C on this one...we have no emotional ties to this girl) and her un-winner-like 5-episode-editing-pattern of CP CP MOR UTR UTR... i don't think she's winning....she goes far, but she doesn't win. The smugness of her edit makes me think Negative, but it's pretty slight. Tyson MOR2 I know he's only a 1 on the chart, but he felt more present than that due in large part to his once again excellent challenge performances, his acute observation & confessional at the RC concerning Brendan and his odd scene at Timbira where he goes over to Debbie & Coach and outs Brendan. I could almost give him a CP, but i'm not sure that it was enough for that. I could see UTR, but i went with MOR this time. No tone, just the facts m'am. Winners 1. Stephen - I've had Stephen as my number 1 pick since E2 ( I didn't pick after E1) and I have no reason to change. This episode was HUGELY AWESOME for him. 2. JT - Oddly, i don't think this episode was bad for him, I strongly feel that The Stephen/JT relationship has been played up for a reason... and if Stephen fails, then it's JT. JT's early edit reminds me (oddly) of Tom from Palau. Additionally, JT has only 1 of the 3 E1 "winners confessional editing patterns" that Parv, Todd and even Bob had. (the other 2 are Coach and Taj). Also, following the Micronesia Guide to editting injuries... Hilight MAJORLY with PROBST INTERACTION when the winner gets hurt in a challenge. Throw in another Injury too for offsetting, but with out as much emphasis.... JT kinda fits that, doncha think. 3. Tyson - I've decided that Tyson's official E1 rating is wrong, and that too many of us (myself included) are forgetting that Tyson's OTT behaviour is part of his plan as outlined in E1. His snarkiness is left to his confessionals like Todd's were. I can't rule him out yet. 4. Erinn - There are many problems with the edit pattern for me, but at least we know alot about her and also some of the whys for what she's been doing. 5. Sierra - I am not sold on Sierra... By the end of E5...We should DAMN WELL KNOW SOMETHING OF HER LIFE BACK HOME...Hello... we know more about SYDNEY!!!!!!! This fact alone dropped her out of my top 3 this week. I'd have an easier time buying a Coach win at this point. Eliminated Debbie - INV / too ignored Sydney - INV / too ignored Joe - long strong of toneless UTRs Coach - Negative Nellie. Unless the Editors are up to something really really odd! Brendan - UTR E1 / CP E2....Cirie S16 edit. Taj - UTR E1 / CP E2... Cirie S16 edit. |
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taks |
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Phoenix - it's absolutely scary how you've managed to take all the thoughts I've had about this season and throw it into one post!
I agree with everything you said about Stephen and Tyson (although I threw a giant WTF-rating OTTP for Tyson Ep. 1). Tyson's edit has been very much like
Stephen's, in that he set up his game plan in episodes 1-3 and has been following through the entire time. We know who he is even though he hasn't once
been a boot target or gone to exile.
I've had similar doubts about Sierra's edit, but have just gone-with-the-flow because it's so uncontroversial to do so. I think you nailed it right on the head when you said that we know NOTHING about her home life. She hasn't told us what she does or anything. I don't know if she has a boyfriend or sister or pet monkey. She's almost getting the one-note complex edit, if that's at all possible. I'm glad I'm not alone on this. Finally, I don't think it comes as a surprise when I say I agree with your support for JT. I've been reserved in my support because I don't want to appear crazy biased or anything. But JT is not one of my show favorites, just the person whose edit I've spent the most time dissecting. I just have a hard time keeping him away from the top of my winners list. JT does not have a single OTTP to date. You'd think if he really were the one note hero/leader, the editors would have no problem at this point making him OTTPP. They clearly have material from challenges to do it. Yet, they always seem to balance his edit nicely with a few strategic thoughts or balance it out with another huge character/storyline. JT's edit doesn't really touch Stephen's edit for me, but it is still most definitely viable. |
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astroline |
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Alright, final ratings time.
JALAPAO J.T. - OTTM3 Joe - MOR3 Spencer - CPP4 Stephen - CP3 Sydney - UTR2 Taj - CPM5 TIMBIRA Brendan - CP3 Coach - MORN2 Debbie - UTR1 Erinn - UTR2 Sierra - UTR2 Tyson - MOR2 Winners list... 1. Erinn 2. Stephen 3. Sierra 4. J.T. Not completely out: Tyson, Taj, Brendan Eliminated: Debbie, Sydney, Joe, Coach |
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getting real |
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Phoenix said:
Coach - Negative Nellie. Unless the Editors are up to something really really odd! It seems that in recent seasons the editors have taken to using someone as a kind of Midas in reverse: whatever they touch turns to dust. Last season we had Corinne shown as being wrong in just about every prediction and every viewpoint she expressed about the game. This time round, it's Coach. It seems that the editors are taking great delight in editing in highlighting this irony of someone shown to be demostrably wrong; but what is useful for us is that the editors seem to be using these people as vehicles to tell us the opposite of what is going to happen. So it was that Corinne told us that Bob was useful but wouldn't be kept beyond 5; that Sugar was a waste of space, that she would never find the HII and would instead break down at EI; that she would metaphorically stab Susie in the face; that the Onion alliance would win it all and that strategy was going to be instrumental in winning the game. Of course, the opposite of all those things came true and we can look forward to Coach's views and predictions being contradicted as spectacularly as his weather predictions were. Thus, we know that the blonde (Sierra) will turn out to be a major player; that the winner will be someone he did not consider strong or honorable - at least not initially. The winer will not be a warrior, or a Samurai or anyone with those qualities. That rules out people such as JT and Brendan. Indeed, it rules out every male other than Stephen. What is interesting in this analysis is what these tainted Cassandra prophets were not shown to be telling us. Corinne, for example was not shown as telling us that she was confident of a Kota victory. That allowed Bob to claim victory, and to do so with Corinne's help. I suspect Coach will have some involvement in determining how the winner is crowned, albeit not in the way he envisaged. CO cky -rinne & -ach -opted by editors to -ncoct -ntradiction. |
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