S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins - Survivor Speculation - Spoiler Related - Survivor Sucks - Message Board

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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ncassaro		#2541	[-]
Posts: 907 (04/03/09 12:15 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I LUV TIJUANA wrote: Why? It's not a merge episode. Nothing big happened on Timbira, and she got enough airtime on Exile. Next episode is make/break for Erinn. Hold off on ruling her out or not until then. Why did Erinn not mutiny considering she is #6 on her tribe? Sure, there was talk among the Tyson/Debbie/Coach alliance of booting Brendan if Timbira went to TC, but she didn't know that (though they likely would have recruited her vote had they gone to TC.) There is just a lack of complexity in Erinn's edit that tells me she is not the winner.
ncassaro		#2542	[-]
Posts: 908 (04/03/09 12:18 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	btw am i the only one still supporting Sierra instead of Erinn/Stephen here? And not "supporting" as in I like her better, but supporting as in she has the best edit?
AbbyGirl		#2543	[-]
Posts: 38 (04/03/09 12:21 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I am glad to know that those who see any spoilers report it here. I am going to be more careful what I read from now on, it's good to have a heads up. I am still spoiler free and plan to stay that way. CL, I agree with you. I was thinking tonight as I watched the episode that Stephen, Taj, J.T., Brendan and Sierra would be the final five. That quick clip of Brendan saying maybe he should stick with his tribe to vote out the other tribe pretty much sealed the deal to me that he does just the opposite. After he says that he most likely said he was going to stick with his original exile alliance. What do you want to bet that he said that but they cut it out? If the above are truly the final five, they all have good things about their edits and bad things about their edits. All I can say is I really think one of those five wins. Stephen has a better strategic edit, Sierra has end game story and started out with a great edit for a winner, Taj might be a Cirie, but she also could be a well defined female winner... I can definitely see her there finale night. Brendan and J.T. (the two leaders) both have ups and downs in their edits. Brendan is like a Yul/Colby type, J.T. could be a Tom or a Rupert, we'll see. Erinn probably helps pick off Coach and Tyson after merge, that's her story so far. Maybe she does make the F2 somehow, but she will have to do some bad things to get there. If she does double cross her tribe will they forgive her and vote for her if she is in the F2? I don't think so. Could Joe be any more boring and clueless? Does that make him negative? I really hope he goes next, if he does I wonder if he will have to leave because of his leg or if he gets voted out? Stephen does seem like a toned down Rob C. I am wondering if that's good or bad for his winning chances. The merge episode should be good, I am looking forward to it already!
augustus713		#2544	[-]
Posts: 47 (04/03/09 12:21 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ncassaro wrote: btw am i the only one still supporting Sierra instead of Erinn/Stephen here? And not "supporting" as in I like her better, but supporting as in she has the best edit? Sierra is still my #2. I don't really see anyone supporting Erinn that much, she's close to eliminated for me but I will wait until the merge episode before I do.
chaperone		#2545	[-]
Posts: 2637 (04/03/09 12:25 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I still pick Stephen, but I think I'm more of a fan at this point than being edgically objective. I forget why JT and Brendan are so low on our lists anymore. They have decent edits. Did they have a bad episode I missed? IMO both have better edits than Tyson, Erinn, and now even Sierra. Gosh, it's been 3 weeks though so I think I've been ruminating on the old material so it's all a bit skewed from my last (edgically relevant) post.
ncassaro		#2546	[-]
Posts: 909 (04/03/09 12:42 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Logically (not edgically, admittedly) it makes no sense for the six Timbira to not stay together for the next vote. If JT doesn't win immunity he is gone 6-4. If JT wins, Joe is gone 6-4. This game does not get unpredictable until F9 considering the two HII in play.
augustus713		#2547	[-]
Posts: 48 (04/03/09 12:44 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ncassaro wrote: Logically (not edgically, admittedly) it makes no sense for the six Timbira to not stay together for the next vote. If JT doesn't win immunity he is gone 6-4. If JT wins, Joe is gone 6-4. This game does not get unpredictable until F9 considering the two HII in play. I agree, I think Joe goes next episode then the EA including JT turn on Coach, Tyson, and Debbie. Erinn will also be more than glad to vote with the EA in all likelihood.
ncassaro		#2548	[-]
Posts: 910 (04/03/09 12:44 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chaperone wrote: I still pick Stephen, but I think I'm more of a fan at this point than being edgically objective. I forget why JT and Brendan are so low on our lists anymore. They have decent edits. Did they have a bad episode I missed? IMO both have better edits than Tyson, Erinn, and now even Sierra. Gosh, it's been 3 weeks though so I think I've been ruminating on the old material so it's all a bit skewed from my last (edgically relevant) post. Brendan's episode 1 was shit (see Micronesia, Cirie Fields in.) JT has been too OTT.
I LUV TIJUANA		#2549	[-]
Posts: 12403 (04/03/09 1:23 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ncassaro wrote: I LUV TIJUANA wrote: Why? It's not a merge episode. Nothing big happened on Timbira, and she got enough airtime on Exile. Next episode is make/break for Erinn. Hold off on ruling her out or not until then. Why did Erinn not mutiny considering she is #6 on her tribe? Sure, there was talk among the Tyson/Debbie/Coach alliance of booting Brendan if Timbira went to TC, but she didn't know that (though they likely would have recruited her vote had they gone to TC.) There is just a lack of complexity in Erinn's edit that tells me she is not the winner. It would be kind of foolish considering a merge is approaching and since she'd be the first to go on Jalapao.
ncassaro		#2550	[-]
Posts: 911 (04/03/09 1:30 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I LUV TIJUANA wrote: ncassaro wrote: I LUV TIJUANA wrote: Why? It's not a merge episode. Nothing big happened on Timbira, and she got enough airtime on Exile. Next episode is make/break for Erinn. Hold off on ruling her out or not until then. Why did Erinn not mutiny considering she is #6 on her tribe? Sure, there was talk among the Tyson/Debbie/Coach alliance of booting Brendan if Timbira went to TC, but she didn't know that (though they likely would have recruited her vote had they gone to TC.) There is just a lack of complexity in Erinn's edit that tells me she is not the winner. It would be kind of foolish considering a merge is approaching and since she'd be the first to go on Jalapao. Agreed, but why did we not see her at least considering it since we have already been informed of her bad position on Timbira? I don't believe for one second that Erinn didn't give an "I could mutiny but I'm not going to because..." confessional. And were she a winner, it certainly would've been shown. I can't consider Erinn a contender just because she hasn't been INV yet. That's a little ridiculous.
LKMOSCAR		#2551	[-]
Posts: 6123 (04/03/09 2:33 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Jalapao: Sydney-MOR2 Taj-CP4 Stephen-CP4 Joe-CPM5 JT-CP5 Timbira: Tyson-UTR1 Debra-UTR1 Sierra-UTR1 Coach-OTTN2 Brendan-MOR2 Erinn-CP2
augustus713		#2552	[-]
Posts: 49 (04/03/09 3:15 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Warrior wrote: You sure Sydney and Sierra only had 3 lines each? I could swear I remember them having more lines than that.
I LUV TIJUANA		#2553	[-]
Posts: 12404 (04/03/09 3:45 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ncassaro wrote: I LUV TIJUANA wrote: ncassaro wrote: I LUV TIJUANA wrote: Why? It's not a merge episode. Nothing big happened on Timbira, and she got enough airtime on Exile. Next episode is make/break for Erinn. Hold off on ruling her out or not until then. Why did Erinn not mutiny considering she is #6 on her tribe? Sure, there was talk among the Tyson/Debbie/Coach alliance of booting Brendan if Timbira went to TC, but she didn't know that (though they likely would have recruited her vote had they gone to TC.) There is just a lack of complexity in Erinn's edit that tells me she is not the winner. It would be kind of foolish considering a merge is approaching and since she'd be the first to go on Jalapao. Agreed, but why did we not see her at least considering it since we have already been informed of her bad position on Timbira? I don't believe for one second that Erinn didn't give an "I could mutiny but I'm not going to because..." confessional. And were she a winner, it certainly would've been shown. I can't consider Erinn a contender just because she hasn't been INV yet. That's a little ridiculous. Because it wouldn't be relevant to the story, plus I'm sure they thought the ADD audience forgot about the mutiny twist. I'm not asking you to consider her a candidate because she hasn't had an INV. I'm saying she should be a candidate because of her carefully crafted edit which has few flaws. People have to remember that it's not always a perfect, by-the-books edit we're getting each time. Bob certainly wasn't. Only Earl and Yul truly are the perfect edit. Maybe Tom too. Even some of the other winner edits, like Brian, Parvati and Aras, had a lot of flaws. Think whatever you like, I'm just sharing my two cents.
Erinnloveee		#2554	[-]
Posts: 12 (04/03/09 3:57 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I may be a tad biased here, but I don't think Erinn's edit in this episode completely ruined her chances. She stayed out of beangate even thought it would be expected that she'd say something about Coach there. Even if she was at Exile at the time the editors could have easily slipped in a confessional of her calling him a jackass or an idiot. I think this episode only helped her because her edit is becoming less one dimensional. She's looking for other options and her edit isn't focused on Coach's and Tyson's. She got a couple confessionals, some Exile airtime, and some mentions from Joe and Coach. That's fairly good considering her tribe didn't go to TC. I think next episode will be the make or break point for her. Joe had opportunity to get airtime about the HII because his tribe went to tribal. Timbira didn't get any airtime after Erinn's stay at Exile. So if we see her looking for the idol or trying to get in with Brendan and Sierra who she sees as having the idol, then that will be good for her. She's not a top pick for me but is still holding on. Stephen is getting a very complex edit which makes me think that he'll be the mastermind that falls short ala Cirie, Kenny, etc. He'll be the key to many conversations, alliances, and such but I think it'll all come back to bite him. I get the impression that he's the type of player that will build people around him so he's the pivotal person in a handful of alliances and he'll be voted out for that very reason. I just think it'd be TOO obvious for him to win. Sierra is my #1 pick for now. She's had some strong episodes but is being hidden from us with this latest string of UTR's. She was however shown in this episode taking Erinn's role in ragging on Coach so I think she'll be an important part of his vote off. She does need a strong episode next week and with the merge I think she'll get it. I don't think the entire Exile Island will make final 4/5 though. It'd be too predictable. I see Brendan being the first of that alliance getting voted out and then Sierra works with some Timbira members that she had previously betrayed in paying back Stephen by voting him out.
dcsurvivor		#2555	[-]
Posts: 253 (04/03/09 4:04 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Interesting episode. I think the final four will be Stephen, Sierra. Erinn, and JT. Erinn screams fourth place to me. If it is a final 2, I think Stephen is out at third. Logic tells me that Sierra will have the most jury connections, but I think you will see JT going on a individual immunity run. Sierra's gameplay is a little wishy-washy to me. Could the player with the least jury connections win the game? Possibly, if the jury respects that players gameplay more. The scene with Joe and Erinn at Exile was very telling. Erinn asks Joe, "who do you like on your tribe?" Joe responds, "JT". Erinn says, " I can see that or, I agree with that". For what reason was that shown? Not sure. Erinn doesn't know JT. Maybe, she too respects his gameplay When Stephen was talking with Taj about telling JT about the idol, the music was strange........possibly because he is trying to screw over JT, but JT made a comment that Stephen could be lying to him. I think JT will figure out that Stephen has been less than forthcoming with him when he finds out about the Exile Island Alliance. He will cut Stephen loose in the end. My money is on JT for the win..........I think he will be edited to be the one we root for........and in this season, we will get what we want.
getting real		#2556	[-]
Posts: 1605 (04/03/09 4:40 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Apart from the establishment of the exile alliance, the two most important early scenes this season have been those setting up JT and Stephen's relationship and the Coach's 'worthy adversaries' diatribe. Both establish the end-game; the former in real terms, the latter in terms of symbolism. My gut feeling is that the Coach's sentiments will be proven as inaccurate as everything else he has been shown to be involved in. This would mean that JT is the ultra-P JT is unlikely to win. I think it unlikely that, if JT were the winner, they would portray him a pawn in the hands of Stephen and Taj. UNLESS. of course, his hillbilly naivete is the impression that he needs to overcome to win the game. In the meantime, still no reason to change my two top picks from 15 minutes into the first episode: Sierra - Stephen. Forget everyone else.
augustus713		#2557	[-]
Posts: 50 (04/03/09 5:05 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Erinnloveee wrote: I don't think the entire Exile Island will make final 4/5 though. It'd be too predictable. I see Brendan being the first of that alliance getting voted out and then Sierra works with some Timbira members that she had previously betrayed in paying back Stephen by voting him out. I think the Exile Alliance (I'm going to include JT in the EA at this point because it seems like they're bringing him into the fold even if he doesn't know about Brendan and Sierra yet) will make up a good portion of the final 5 (I'm thinking either Debbie or Erinn will sneak in there as a "non-threat"). If you think about the way the game is setting up and Jeff touting blindsides this season, you have to think that Coach, Tyson, and maybe Debbie will get blindsided soon while they think Timbira sticks together. Joe has been a non-entity until recently and I think that, along with his leg injury, bodes badly for his longevity. If you take out those 4, we're already down to the final 6 with all of the EA still in tact.
RobVanStratus		#2558	[-]
Posts: 8008 (04/03/09 5:21 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Erinn is NOT a carefully crafted edit. The only reason she's getting huge support from people like OO and ILT is because she is their token pretty girl of the season. She's been shown thus far to be incredibly dumb or bitch thus far in the game. Ep 1 Tyson calls her a bitch and she talks about how much she likes him, Ep 2 she makes friends with the boot and irritates the power leader Coach, Ep 3 she laughs about the misfortunes of the likeable Jerry sparing her, Ep 4 I can't even remember what she did, I think that was her crying episode about breaking up with her boyfriend so OMG CPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP for crying, Ep 5 she shit all over Coach for not predicting the weather correctly, and then this episode she trusts someone that is shown to be in no control at Jalapao and on top of that have an injury that could impact their game after 3 episodes in a row mentioning Joe's hurt knee/leg. On top of that, she also just assumed that Brendan/Sierra don't have the idol after the clues she has. It should be obvious to her one of them probably has it and she doesn't even give a thought to them having it. Just stupidly assuming that the idol is as good as hers. Like someone else said, Erinn gave some thought to the game this episode but she failed to hit an important point, the mutiny. The Exile alliance has been shown to be in power in their tribes and be secure, so there's no need for them to discuss mutinying now because it blows their cover on the alliance too early. But Erinn has been shown to be on the outs, Jalapao has identified her as a player that is on the outs and yet she fails to capitalize on the opportunity of jumping to them and potentially picking off Timbira. I'm sorry but I don't think we'd see someone that wins make such poor decisions consistently in the game so far. If she was 20 years older, you bet she would be seen as negative by most of you for her comments and not even be considered for winner contention. Last Edited By: RobVanStratus 04/03/09 5:25 AM. Edited 1 times.
LKMOSCAR		#2559	[-]
Posts: 6128 (04/03/09 5:38 AM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	It should be obvious to her one of them probably has it and she doesn't even give a thought to them having it. Just stupidly assuming that the idol is as good as hers. In an insider video, at Timbira after the IC, Erinn talks about how it would be great to have the idols, but even if she/Joe didn't, then at least they know who probably does. And I don't understand you thinking that she's a bitch. You may not like her because you think that, but I don't get the notion by her editing that she's a bitch, and I don't think that the majority of the audience thinks that either, and I'm NOT one for the pretty girl. Also, about the mutiny thing, IF Timbira had lost the challenge, then a confessional with Erinn thinking about mutinying would have probably been shown, but that's only because she probably would have been voted out. ETA: It was just pointed out to me that Erinn did in fact bring up the idol not possibly being there when she HAD the conversation with Joe on Exile: Joe: It's right there near tree mail Erinn: Easy if it's still there Joe: I'll let you know, all right? Last Edited By: LKMOSCAR 04/03/09 5:41 AM. Edited 1 times.
augustus713		#2560	[-]
Posts: 51 (04/03/09 5:46 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Erinn and Joe: the least powerful alliance in the history of Survivor? well, maybe besides Chet and Kathy

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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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