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One thing in the edit that's intrigued me is how in the last two weeks there has been some "uh-oh" moments regarding members of the Exile Alliance that either quickly disappeared or didn't matter. First it was Brendan, who was talked up as a threat cuz maybe he has friends on the other tribe... well, where the hell did that go? Suddenly the bad person again was Erinn - well, that was Coach, so it's kind of redundant. But Brendan's threatening potential was gone. The next week it was Taj - the edit made the viewer think that maybe there would be a mutiny. But no, she was just the decoy.

A likely reason for this faux threat stuff is to keep the viewer in a state of worry about the fragility of the exile alliance. Here's a key: If these people sort of coasted to the end game, this is exactly how you would edit them... every week one of 'em is a threat to go.

I notice people are beginning to think of boot orders. Yeah, this predicting stuff isn't really part of edgic, but it's fun. What I like to do is see if we can tie in the big edit themes we've seen so far (the mutual hostility in the Timbiras and the exile alliance) into the post-merge game. I can see the exile alliance exploiting the dislike that exists among Coach, Erinn, a bit of Tyson, and a bit of Sierra, to their advantage. Brendan's seen all of it, and also knows that all they really need to do is NOT vote out a member of the exile alliance to give them a majority. What would stop him from going to Erinn and saying, "Coach thinks you're a cancer. He's strong[ahem! for a guy who's supposedly kayaked to the moons of jupiter and back, he's a pretty crappy challenge dude... (end editorial comment)], so that makes him a threat to all of us... how about we blindside him? We'll still have the numbers advantage."

Or he could go to Coach and remind him of his "want the strong to survive" BS line from Ep 1 (this would be a great tie-in to first-episode topics) and say, "Let's boot Erinn. You're right - she's a cancer, and doesn't deserve to be here. We'll still have the advantage numerically,and we can enjoy this game without her annoying presence, oh mighty coach."

[This will work provided any of these people aren't as smart as Chris (S9), who, when someone suggested they boot a truly annoying player, said one of the wisest things ever uttered on Survivor: "yes, he's annoying. Let's boot him. Just...not...yet." I don't know if the Timbira people are strategically strong enough to utter those last three words.]

As long as the first two boots aren't any of the exile alliance (or JT, who's in orbit around it), they're home free. Get rid of Coach, Erinn, or Joe - or any of the others. But I do think the next two boots will be from this threesome, with a Tyson outlier.

More musings. How will the fake II come into play? Erinn and Joe are semi-aligned (the only alignment, semi or not, for both of them) yet are in a position of weakness. Will this be just a little moment that doesn't pan out, like so many others, or will it matter in some way?

The next two episodes will IMO position us all for the end game. To me, the edit leads us to the conclusion that the exile alliance forges ahead and the animosity in Timbira is their undoing. If that's the case, there should be some cool fireworks in store for us.