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S-18 Edgic (editing and logic) - Tocantins

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Jedijake		#3061	[-]
Posts: 5603 (04/11/09 7:42 AM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	With all of the SPV about the members of Timbira which are so complex, I can't imagine there NOT being a member of Timbira in the finals. We've now heard enough said about Erinn and Sierra. We've heard only great things said about JT (hence the P this episode). He's a warrior, he's a great guy, he's genuine, he does everything in the outdoors, etc etc etc. He's everyone's hero. Meanwhile, Coach WANTS to be everyone's hero. We're supposed to want JT to win no matter what right now. We're all supposed to go out and buy the JT action figure and make him fight off the evil Lord Coach action figure to keep the dark side from taking over the world. We're also supposed to want to take the Tyson action figure and rip off it's head and feed it to the dog. Tyson is, in his simplistic way, more evil than Coach. Stephen vs JT in the finals would be classic. I don't see it happening. I STILL see Stephen facing either Sierra or Erinn in the finals and I see it happening very easily. Stephen is crafty enough to take out JT when the time is right. He would want to face people who aren't necessarily popular. Sierra had been likeable but it no longer. Erinn was never likeable to her own tribe (but to us, yes-kinda like Matt from Amazon). So, we have: Tyson-Coach-Deb with Stephen and JT as their back ups. Brenden is toast. Then, Stephen and JT along with Taj convince Erinn and Sierra to join them. Tyson-Deb-Coach are then toast. Then Stephen wants to toss either Taj or JT and take Erinn and Sierra to the end. I can see the final 4 being: Stephen. Erinn, Sierra, Taj/JT (whoever lasts). Taj/JT leave in the final 5 and 4, leaving Stephen with Erinn and Sierra. He gets to choose. I can see the jury being pissed at Stephen for backstabbing nearly everyone, but giving him the million dollars since Erinn/Sierra are looked at as less worthy. And JT gets the $$$ prize from the viewers fo sho.
Warrior		#3062	[-]
Posts: 2867 (04/11/09 8:14 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	EPISODE 7 The Merge Part 1 FORZA Ben - OTTN4 How can he not be OTT with the episode starting like it did...complete with editor made lightning flashes and the dramatic music. The editors are working overtime on trying to make this guy look like a complete ass…but they don't have too many episodes left to use him. Gone soon! Visibility - Strong 4 Brendan - MOR3 Not much from him this episode but he did get 3 confessionals and a ton of SPV's. It reminds me of Yul's episode 10 when he was the decoy bootee and got 23 SPV's. It looks like he makes his move next week in part 2 of The Merge. I want to see merge TC. I am bumping his visibility up to a 3 because of all of the SPV's he got. What bothers me about him is that he is getting the boring edit...ala Aras and Yul. Visibility - 3 due to SPV count. Debra - UTR1 Barely there. Visibility - 1 Erin - MOR2 Still can't eliminate her. But she almost needs a miracle. Visibility - Medium 2 J.T. - CP5 Two 5's in a row…not good. He will probably take Ben and Tyson's place as the big distraction as soon as they are gone. Visibility - Solid 5 Joe - MOR2 I think that we all saw that coming. Visibility - Strong 2 Sierra - UTR1 I think that we can eliminate her now. Visibility Weak 1 Stephen - CP4 His edit is looking almost perfect…I just hope that it's not too perfect. Visibility - Medium 4 Taj - MOR3 Her edit did seem to be in a holding pattern… Visibility - Weak 3 Tyson - OTTN4 He is trying as hard as he can to be OTT and they are showing it so I'll give it to him. Visibility - Solid 4 I am going to wait until the end of next episode to make my FINAL pick...I want to see part 2. Winner…...or... Last Edited By: Warrior 04/27/09 7:42 AM. Edited 2 times.
wallduck		#3063	[-]
Posts: 521 (04/11/09 10:50 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	wallduck, I appoint you Master at Arms. Only if I get a badge. Merge Episode Ratings Brendan MOR3 Coach OTT4 Debbie UTR1 Erinn UTR2 Joe MOR2 JT CP5 Sierra UTR1 Stephen CP4 Taj CP3 Tyson OTTN4 My personal MORDs: Stephen 0.86, Taj 1.4, Brendan 1.6, Erinn 1.7, Sierra 2.3, Tyson 2.3, JT 2.6, Debbie 2.9, Coach 3.3 Winner analysis First, I'm conservative with the phrase "eliminated by edgic." It's a great phrase, but much abused to mean "I don't think s/he wins." Eliminated by edgic Coach: excess OTT, excess N Debbie: insufficient visibility, insufficient meaningful editing Tyson: excess OTT, excess N I don't think s/he wins Brendan: Brendan is completely viable as an edgic winner. He's had meaningful editing and he's been surrounded by distractions of the highest order. My reason for not picking him: I think Brendan's been set up as the favorite to win, and nobody would be surprised if he did. Erinn: Weak edgically but not eliminated, by wallduck's theory of UTRF winners. JT: Can't be eliminated, but I'm surprised by the sudden support for him. I see JT as the typical crowd-pleasing OTTP-leaning challenge threat, like Ozzy or Matty. My personal MORD for JT is 2.6. Furthermore, despite his likeability the editing has portrayed JT as somewhat dim, a telling signal. Winners are not portrayed as dim. Sierra: Her edit has some manipulation, but little meaningfulness. What do we really know, or care, about Sierra? Almost nothing: not much more than a boilerplate underdog story. Taj: I consider Taj, like Brendan, to be a viable edgic winner. But her high visibility counts against her and casts her more of a distraction than the one hidden by distraction. OTOH, if Taj were the winner, I'm not sure her edit would be so much different. She is really the only darkhorse I worry about edgically. Winner Stephen: Stephen is a classic, CP, edgic-friendly winner. He is the kind of winner edgic is designed to identify. We don't always have a classic-edgic contender at the merge, but when we do you gotta pick him/her if you believe in edgic.
wallduck		#3064	[-]
Posts: 522 (04/11/09 11:06 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think SkepticA is a Stephen fan. Craig, the best post you ever wrote is inferior to the worst one sceptic ever wrote. (That's not ad hominem, it's ad postum.)
getting real		#3065	[-]
Posts: 1624 (04/11/09 11:41 AM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Phoenix said: Coach manages to scrape his way to the end, wins the final IC.... & regardless of who is left... who do you think he would pick? You mean Coach is channelling Sugar? Craig, the best post you ever wrote is inferior to the worst one sceptic ever wrote. (That's not ad hominem, it's ad postum.) That's a tad harsh. At least his theories are ad libitum. And he can never be accused of acting ad captandum.
sunflower101		#3066	[-]
Posts: 4447 (04/11/09 11:44 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	scepticA wrote: I could see Stephen gunning for JT, or vice versa - but late in the game, assuming they get that far, and they want to go to the jury against an opponent they could win against. So at F4 or F5 I could see this happening. But as soon as OTH suggests? They are each other's lifeline right now. Re Erinn, one of the things I was most curious about was the sort of move she was going to make at the merge. One of her more interesting statements was when she said she doesn't like anyone on her tribe etc. So we saw her and Joe, and some mutterings about the HII... what was her reaction to his departure? We didn't see it. I really did want more from her (like I wanted more from Sierra.) One of the better aspects of S18 over its predecessor was the strategic thinking of a lot of people remaining in the game, whether it was smart, dumb, naive, or stupid. Erinn's was a "wait and see" strategy, and we're all still waiting. Sierra's just glommed onto Brendan. That could be what gets Brendan booted if Tyson/Coach are the next blindside. Taj/Stephen are not going to want to boot JT yet with so many Timbra's still left in the game. I could see that happening at the final 4/5 but not yet.
sunflower101		#3067	[-]
Posts: 4448 (04/11/09 11:49 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ncassaro wrote: Stephen will not turn on JT. This may not be edgic, but they are bros. You don't scumbag a bro. The Stephen/Taj alliance has been overemphasized in editing, I can tell (though RealityNewsOnline cannot.... when can they ever?). His true loyalty lies with JT. Also, JT as the alpha male has been overemphasized. Stephen is older and likely like an older brother to JT. He's not going to betray JT when JT will follow his every word like little brothers do. I may be reading in way too deep but there is nothing that suggests to me that Stephen would betray JT. He likely gave confessionals saying he would if he had to, but we've only seen confessionals indicating that JT is off limits for him. Stephen is a strategist, don't get me wrong, but it's not gonna happen. I will eat my words if it does, but I'm 99.9% sure. If Stephen were going to blindside JT, it wouldn't be until at least the final 4/5. Taj/Stephen are not going to blindside JT with 6 original Timbras still in the game. So if it did happen it wouldn't happen until late in the end game. This could be another alliance similar to the last 2 seasons of big brother. Bromance alliances went to the end together (not a bash just a fact). Charlie/Marcus also had a final 2 deal, even though they didn't make the end game and Stephen/JT are a lot more like able.
taks		#3068	[-]
Posts: 94 (04/11/09 11:56 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	wallduck wrote: I don't think s/he wins JT: Can't be eliminated, but I'm surprised by the sudden support for him. I see JT as the typical crowd-pleasing OTTP-leaning challenge threat, like Ozzy or Matty. My personal MORD for JT is 2.6. Furthermore, despite his likeability the editing has portrayed JT as somewhat dim, a telling signal. Winners are not portrayed as dim. This is the perception of JT I do not believe we are getting in the edit. Despite having a country accent, endearing smile, and excelling on all but 2 pre-merge challenges, we have only given JT one OTT and it wasn't OTTP. I know a character's edit is more than the average of each episode's compartmentalized edit, but that detail seems very telling to me. The official edgic chart has tagged him with 3/6 "P"s and 2/3 were in episodes where he did not attend tribal council. He is far more than an OTTP-leaning challenge threat. In fact, he's a mental threat as well. Ozzy had like one strategic thought in episode two of Cook Islands and then was all about being an immunity challenge god and taking in the scenery. Last season, Matty was compared to Ozzy because he seemed to be all about winning challenges and taking in the experience. He uttered almost nothing strategic an entire season. Matty and Ozzy were far more about how great it was to be out there than actually playing the social/mental game. JT has already proven that he's going to be in the game strategically. We saw him and Stephen as the essential deciding votes in Sandy's boot. He was given screentime to ponder his dilemma and he was far from being portrayed as "dim". At one point, Stephen is shown clearly respecting his opinion (I believe Stephen asks him something like "For you, it's definitely Mama K?" and when JT responds that he's undecided, Stephen considers, "Maybe it should be Sydney?"). JT's hesitation is then backed up in the next scene when Sydney idiotically claims that she loves the sneakiness of the game. JT's thoughts are being confirmed by the editing staff. My bet is those things didn't happen in that order chronologically, but were spliced as so to confirm JT's suspicions. In Sydney's boot, we saw JT think about the game again. I'll go in less detail, but he's always weighing his options and consistently mentions how things will affect him later in the game (comments from Taj's wealth to taking beans to voting out Sydney are all given endgame ties). Tell me, where do you think the editing has JT portrayed as dim? I'm just not seeing it.
fat little fingers		#3069	[-]
Posts: 6032 (04/11/09 12:03 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Only if I get a badge. Don't let it go to your head, Big Font Boy.
sunflower101		#3070	[-]
Posts: 4449 (04/11/09 12:15 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I wouldn't be shocked to see a Stephen/JT final 2 or JT get blindsided at the final 4/5. I think JT is a jury threat, but it isn't impossible for Stephen to beat him in a jury vote. Coach is going to be on the jury and is going to be very ticked and bitter if he goes out in a blindside. Coach is going to be a bitter bitch on the jury (like Lisi/Alex/Corine/Marcus, etc). Coach thinks he is mister interity (even if it clearly isn't true). Coach believes that he is like JT. Is Coach still going to feel that way if JT is one of the votes to blindside him or Tyson? Coach has a man crush on JT now, but how long is that going to last once JT burns his bridges with Coach. I could see Coach having a delusional bitter jury speech calling JT out on not being honest. Coach then wouldn't vote for JT out of spit. Not to taint a Stephen win, but I can see scenarios were Stephen would beat JT in a jury vote.
cindidindi76		#3071	[-]
Posts: 16921 (04/11/09 12:26 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	BTW, Tyson was so right to go barefoot at that last challenge. Unless your shoe has a peculiar instep, chances are you'd have a hard time keeping a shoe in the little slots on the poles. I looked closely, and those slots were not squared off - they were rounded. I suspect most shoe insteps would want to slide right off. Your foot's instep would probably work a lot better, grip it better - this is why most people were holding on primarily with their hands/fingers rather than their feet - except for Tyson. My thoughts exactly. I never understand why people wear sneakers for this particular challenge. Know what the worst part is about me not doing winners picks? If I'm right, it's kind of hard to say "I told you so", lol.
I LUV TIJUANA		#3072	[-]
Posts: 12473 (04/11/09 12:45 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I agree about JT's two 5's in a row being bad. He's definitely a distraction at this point.
colleenlover		#3073	[-]
Posts: 9093 (04/11/09 1:50 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	it's raining in south beach so i ran from the beach, ordered room service and taking in a little edgic. I for one, CAN see the Stephen/JT final two (it's got to be final two this season, right?) -and all the manipulated tension about their bro storyline, and different walks of life coming into play. But everyone knows, I'm always the story optimist, and I'm good at getting the basic endgame, but always wrong on the last minute final grouping (hello, Eliza and Scout! How's it going Matty, Crystal with Sugar?) I can also see Sierra in the final two answering questions -based on the manipulation- and now losing. I don't know why, but I still only see Erinn integral to a plot point, one that is crucial, and then departs stage left. There's no way Coach is getting blindsided -at least not now. It has to be Tyson. He has to go before Coach, and in complete disbelief that it could happen. If Coach went before him, he'd be more weary -No, Tyson goes -completely baffled and probably in dramatic fashion. *I like Deb too. Shame she was superflous to the needed story, but in reality, think she was a pretty sharp player. And does seem like fun. I'd want her out there with me if i were playing. Hi, everyone!
Jedijake		#3074	[-]
Posts: 5607 (04/11/09 1:54 PM) MESS member Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Can anyone else see Tyson mooning everyone after his torch is snuffed?
Warrior		#3075	[-]
Posts: 2868 (04/11/09 2:23 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	colleenlover wrote: it's raining in south beach so i ran from the beach, ordered room service and taking in a little edgic. Your down here in my neck of the woods cl. WELCOME
AndreSurvivor		#3076	[-]
Posts: 439 (04/11/09 2:41 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Before my ratings, a few little things I noticed: - In the pre-credit sequence, Taj and Stephen talk about Jalapao's luck changing the next day. Stephen doesn't say anything, but they end the segment on a shot him as the only person not lying down to sleep, staring into the distance and putting his head down to a musical cue of drums. - Erinn "loves New Coach"...she has been all about hating him, and now she is falling for what Coach confessionals as his tactic of pacifying everyone...she also had a confessional online at CBS.com about losing Joe. Of everyone who gives Joe-leaves confessionals, she is absent. If she were the winner, this is perfect obstacle to built on, but it's absent. -JT bad-quote alert: Before te merge: "I'm really hard on myself when I lose. I hate losing. I'm a sore loser. ... That's why I'm kinda hoping it's a challenge and not a merge. I don't think I'm ready yet." Ouch. - Coach: "We're in control. We're in control, baby." Ummmm.... no. - Stephen re: Sierra: "You do need to be discreet about how much information you give out." - Second segment ends on: a JT quote and JT and Stephen exchanging looks at the feast. - Third segment ends on: Tyson and Stephen, after Stephen says Timbira is fractured and they can exploit it. - Erinn's interaction with Joe: Joe: "I don't know what you're doing...it's a simple question." - Fourth segment ends on: JT after the challenge - Who comments on Joe's departure? Tyson, JT, Coach and Joe. Brendan- MOR3 Hardly any strategy. He explained to us why he didn't speak to Taj, but he sure as heck didn't tell her that he was planning to boot JT, which is definitely not in her best interest. Coach- OTTN4 Easiest rating ever. The editor begged us to give it to him, despite his gameplay. Debbie- UTR1 I'll bet she is a nice lady who is overshadowed by alliance mates Tyson and Coach. As well, if she's taken out by Stephen and JT in the future, it may be best to downplay how nice she is so the boot isn't as sour. Erinn- UTR2 She was inconsistent...at the beginning, she said she loves new Coach. She conversation with Joe going to treemail was not positive on her. And when Joe was taken out, she says nothing, even though she gave great material at CBS.com. It makes no sense if she is in the finals to not just say, "Oh, my only friend was taken out. Where do I go from here?" Nada. Joe- MOR2 Almost P, but his idol stuff and having left it at camp made him seem silly. Neutral. Certainly not a James or Jonathan. JT- CP5 So many have said it better than I. He commented on everything. Everything. Before every commercial break, for Joe's departure, and got crazy SPV comments from Coach and Tyson. Sierra- UTRN1 She made that comment at the merge feast that got "WTF?" reactions from Brendan and several people at the table. Stephen said in confessional that it wasn't a smart thing to do. And Tyson, even if he was N, commented that he hates Sierra and that her presence is to "give hope to stupid people everywhere." She gets no confessionals about her gaffes. Taj wonders why Brendan or Sierra didn't even acknowledge the Exile Alliance. Stephen- CP4 Lots of strategy. He is behind Coach, Tyson and JT in visibility, but that's a good thing. Taj- MOR3 I had contemplated CP, but after rewatching, she was absent from strategy and merge tactics. She didn't initiate contact with Brendan and was willing to turn on him because it was easier. Her feast confessional was about how she loves to eat, tying into her Episode 1 confessional about wanting to lose weight. Tyson- OTTN4 or CPN4 His comments were very out-there, but much more grounded in actual strategy and not just Coach's ramblings about honour, having a special eye-contact bond and kindred spirits mumbo-jumbo. So I'm torn. No matter what I chose, he isn't close to my winners list. Since it's the merge, I'll put my Edgic money down on a horse: Winner pick: Stephen (Backup choice: JT)
ncassaro		#3077	[-]
Posts: 942 (04/11/09 3:04 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Someone commented (Oo maybe) that Sierra's storyline was getting voted out in ep. 1, redeeming herself, and then she was done. Had she not been UTR this ep I would've disagreed, but now I'm inclined to say it's true. Good thing it didn't take her getting voted out (like Marcus) for us to come to our senses.
Oowatanite		#3078	[-]
Posts: 7292 (04/11/09 3:06 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ncassaro wrote: Someone commented (Oo ~~maybe~~) that Sierra's storyline was getting voted out in ep. 1, redeeming herself, and then she was done. Had she not been UTR this ep I would've disagreed, but now I'm inclined to say it's true. Yay !
Trixiego		#3079	[-]
Posts: 16500 (04/11/09 3:07 PM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	craig wrote: I think SkepticA is a Stephen fan. She got awfully pissed when I said he was coming across as Shifty Steve in ep.6. Bashing other posters, making ad hominem atacks, pretending she is above fandom. Yes, everyone who has Erinn as #2 or #3 is just a fanboy who has the hots for her. But a women or gay man would never root against the young girls because they have a thing for hardsome Penner, or handsome Brendan, or nice boy Stephen, would they? My suggestions 1 Stop with the ad hominen attacks, it distracts from edgic and starts stupid fan wars. 2. You don't thing Erinn belongs in top 3, fine, tell us about your picks. Unless you want the thread to be full of back and forth about Erinn. PS: I find all the fandon crap especially ironic, because what's missing this season is they haven't made me care much about any of the players. I don't love or hate anyone. Hell, I can be hoping the EA goes down to make things interesting one episode, and then rooting for Brandon becaause he's the underdog the next. Oh craig, I do try to stay out of anything here except to make sure spoilers are being posted but why don't you state what you REALLY wrote Shifty Steve Don't think so. So don't get on a high horse about someone unless you are willing to own what you said - I believe wiley distrustful jew was the phrase you used and trust me that speaks volumes to me on your perceptions
Kitty Pryde1		#3080	[-]
Posts: 9248 (04/11/09 3:14 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ncassaro wrote: Someone commented (Oo maybe) that Sierra's storyline was getting voted out in ep. 1, redeeming herself, and then she was done. Had she not been UTR this ep I would've disagreed, but now I'm inclined to say it's true. Good thing it didn't take her getting voted out (like Marcus) for us to come to our senses. Now if only the Erinn fans would do the same thing.

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