I don't think either of them wins though.
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SurvivorGuy98 |
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Sierra's edit is too much too soon. When a girl gets an edit like that, it usually means they flame out somewhere before the endgame. Sierra is getting a
Cirie edit, whereas Erinn is more like Parvati.
I don't think either of them wins though. |
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taks |
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I haven't had a chance to read everything written here, but here are my preliminary ratings for Episode 2.
Timbira
Candace: CPN5 - She explained her decisions about most everything and we were able to see her logic, even if we weren't meant to agree with her. I don't think she was obviously negative, but it was clearly there (most notably her reaction to the idea of a beach fire pit).
Coach: MORN4 - I've only watched once, might consider CPN4. He wasn't really shown doing anything other than arguing with Candace. He trusts Brendan when he shouldn't. He wants the weak to go but votes out Candace who was perceived by the rest of the tribe as strong. He wants the weak to go but was highlighted by Probst as dragging in the challenge (I think he was the only one to get negative SPV in that challenge, but I'd have to rewatch to be sure). He might make it far, but his winner's chances aren't looking good to me.
Sierra: CP3 - She told us her place on the tribe and what she needed to be done. She explained why she had Brendan help her look for the idol, she explained why she thought it was too dangerous to continue searching for it, and she correctly assessed her position going into tribal. I don't see the "P" from her this week though, most of her portrayal seemed very factual to me.
Debbie: UTR2 - Okay, so she was there this time, but I'll eat my hat if she wins. I don't think she should get an N for "telling on" Candace (we certainly weren't supposed to root for Candace to stay over Sierra) or being "fooled" by Brendan/Sierra (in fact, she was shown to be very positive throughout that entire encounter).
Tyson: UTR2 - He was in two scenes which didn't really affect the story. He's visible without being too much in our faces.
Erinn: MOR3 - I'm really going to have to rewatch this after looking at the visibility chart. I just felt like she was one of the more visible ones after the immunity challenge. Very MOR stuff: short surface-level strategy talks with the boot of the episode and the rest of her tribe and a TCQ which I feel gets answered every season. Although I'm not really crazy about her winner's chances right now (I think she's probably around the middle of the pack for winners).
Brendan: CP5 - Oh man, he just seems to be in with everybody. Sierra trusts him, Taj trusts him, Coach trusts him… We got inside his head a ton, weighing in about Sierra, his chances in the game, and the opportunity to be on Exile with Taj. I don't think his edit was particularly manipulated to be P, he seemed to be presented as simply a rational thinker.
Jerry: UTR2 - See Tyson.
Jalapao
JT: MORP2 - The scene with Stephen seemed to present them both in a very positive light. He was the country boy who knew what he was doing out in the wilderness, the effective leader that Coach could only wish to be. Stephen: CPP3 - Shown overcoming his first impression of JT. He elaborated on how his friendship with JT and his perception as a goofy right-hand man could benefit him in the game of Survivor. I might be projecting my own view of these two in my "P" tone, but this scene just screamed positive to me. I appeared to me to be almost sitcom-ish, two friends from completely different walks of life joking and having fun together.
Spencer: MOR2 - Narrator? He gave us the line about Sandy being next and then in general seemed to be the narrator for the termite scene. He disappeared with the rest of Jalapao after the immunity challenge.
Taj: CPP4 - She had plenty of glory shots in the challenge throwing every female from Timbira out of her way. She explains her awareness of her standing on the tribe as the wife of a famous NFL player. Then, she explains her strategy to get Brendan to give her the clue as well. I can't point to any specifics for the positive tone; with her generally happy demeanor, it's hard to separate Taj the person from Taj the Survivor character.
Sydney: UTR1 - Bye.
Sandy: UTR2 - Wow, I've never seen anyone throw out more winner's quotes than Sandy. This is an absolutely great cool down episode for her and absolutely what she needed to have any chance at all. She expressed relief after the previous episode's tribal council and after winning immunity. I think she also got a few lines about holding Erinn down (or maybe Erinn said something about Sandy holding her down?). Either way, she was nicely weaved through the episode without ever being an overbearing caricature. I wouldn't put her on my short winner's list yet though.
Joe: UTR2 - Well, here's what I wrote for last episode about Joe, I think it sums this episode for him up pretty nicely as well: "Was going to give him a UTR1 before watching a second time. I really can't remember a thing he said or did, despite having 12+ sentences and a confessional." Things do not look good for Joe. Winner's List: Strong Contenders: Stephen (strong game awareness, we know who he is even though he has not significantly impacted the immediate storyline) Tyson JT (similar to Stephen with less game awareness) Sierra (the editors seem to go out of their way to make sure we know why Sierra does everything she does. She's been fairly visible but as a major part of the first episode twist and a potential boot, she's actually been decently well hidden) OK Contenders: Jerry (pretty much here on account of his episode one confessional) Erinn (the editors are definitely making an effort to make sure we remember Erinn from both episodes, the same can't be said for Sydney/Debbie. The TCQ she got let us know her stance without an actual confessional) Brendan (poor episode one + great episode two) Taj (same as Brendan to a lesser extent on both ends) Spencer (closer to a narrator than a winner) Not willing to eliminate yet: Coach (He's always wrong. Always. Not to mention arrogant and just downright creepy.) Sandy (I eliminated her last episode, thinking she was too big of a distraction, but her cool down seemed to be edited with care) Eliminated: Sydney Joe Debbie
Last Edited By: taks
02/21/09 3:22 AM.
Edited 2 times.
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9RedWing19 |
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SurvivorGuy98 wrote:Cirie was actually CP / OTTP in the first 2 episodes of S12. Sierra's edit is well constructed for someone who does not strike me as entertainment "gold", unlike say Courtney Y or Sugar (or even Taj for that matter). There's a long track record of neglected female edits, even those that made it to the end (Becky, Cassandra, and Susie being recent examples), which is why I find Sierra to be the most intriguing contestant so far, Edgically speaking. As I posted earlier, the only post-ASS female to have CP's in the first 2 episodes was Palau Steph - not saying that Sierra will go down that road - the Timbits don't appear to be the second coming of Ulong. At this point, I'd be real surprised if Sierra is a pre-merge boot - it would be atypical for the editors to lavish this much care in those circumstances. FWIW, we have had 4 winners with CP ratings the first two episodes: Rich, Yul, Earl, and Todd. |
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Jedijake |
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Good post RW! It is very intriguing how Sierra is getting the attention she is getting.
She was ousted in episode 1 and revived herself by working. They had to show that. BUT they had important thoughts from her regarding why she did what she did. She was a target in episode 2 due to being ousted in episode 1. She was revived. BUT they showed some of her introspection about the game. And the track record against females is pretty profound, especially since ASS. (yes, Steph1.0 and Cirie were the ONLY two well developed females in the first few episodes of their seasons) Still, they are holding back a bit with Sierra. They could have played the sappy music and made her out to be the heroin in distress and put her deeply into the OTTP category the way they did for Sugar. They're forcing Sierra on us but also holding some of her back. They are carefully balancing her. She's a target but has not been negative, worked hard at the challenge, and is in good graces. I'm expecting Sierra to get only one confessional next episode in the beginning of the episode. If she were to get only 1 confessional next episode, it would actually be a VERY good thing for her chances, considering she's got the most facetime of any contestant thus far. |
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ncassaro |
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SurvivorGuy98 wrote:I disagree with this because Cirie had a very weak episode 1. Brendan is more like Cirie than anyone else. Still Sierra doesn't sit well with me as a potential winner. She's more the sweetheart of the season that we're supposed to root for. Definitely a red herring IMO. For me it's basically down to JT, Coach, Erinn, and Tyson, though I'm not arrogant enough to completely narrow it down to them.
Last Edited By: ncassaro
02/20/09 10:54 PM.
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augustus713 |
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ncassaro wrote: While true, they did make it a point this season that first impressions are not what they seem. Wouldn't that be some story, being "voted" out in the first episode and ending up getting "voted" for as the winner? I think the next episode will tell a lot about Sierra's chances at a win. |
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colleenlover |
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Sierra's in for the long haul -if she doesn't win, she almost does and would be exploited no matter what.
Erinn I don't think wins, but probaby is instrumental in doing something drastic down the line. Roght now it's all in the brandon/Sierra union or the TJ/Stephen couplings. |
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Kitty Pryde1 |
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fat little fingers |
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Parvati in Fans vs Faves, had an opening confessional that spoke directly to her game and a second ep that built on
that theme.
Erinn has an opening that is immediately humiliated by Tyson's comment, (which adds weight to her TC comment about knowing and trust), and a number of good reaction shots. Not at all like the Parvati opening eps, but still there is some weight to those who see her as a possibility. |
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BlakeB717 |
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Kitty it is almost freakish how similar our charts are. |
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chapera rocks |
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JALAPAO
JOE - UTR1 J.T. - MORP3 SANDY - UTR2 SPENCER - MOR3 STEPHEN - MORP3 SYDNEY - UTR1 TAJ - CPP3 TIMBIRA BRENDAN - CP5 CANDACE - CPN5 COACH - CPN4 DEBBIE - UTRP2 ERINN - UTRN2 JERRY - UTR1 SIERRA - CPP4 TYSON - MOR3 I know a lot of people disagree on Debbie/Erinn's tone. But Debbie was seen as the fun loving free-spirit who was all about tribal unity and trust. That may be naive but its also seen as good. Especially the fun loving part. Erinn was seen putting down Jerry's comment and encouraging mistrust which breaks a tribe down. |
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Phoenix1269 |
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i can see what you are saying Chapera... I am not sure if I would give them P or N... I have to think about that still...
but it's really interesting to note that both Coach (a coach for University soccer team) and Debbie (a school principal and teacher) BOTH emphasized how important the trek was to bonding. And was even backed up by Tyson and someone else...Candace i think. That trek has been mentioned a few times over the last 2 episodes, and not just by Timbira. That hike was important. They focuses a lot on it, and even got mentioned in the recap (as did coaches comment). The reality is that a trek like that IS a team building experience, and since both Coach & Debbie are in the educational field, where - being in roles they are - they are required to know and teach teambuilding, they both recognize the importance of the trek. Teambuilding IS building trust (and Jerry would know this too). I felt like Erinn came off as paranoid and wrong, some how. Maybe it's because she is second guessing people who are 2x her age? |
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Zesty66 |
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I think (and hope) that everyone is so stumped with Sierra because she actually could be the first female winner to be edited like a male winner. She's not
entertainment gold, she could be shown a lot less than she is. It's like watching something we have never seen before. (Not saying she wins, just
"if")
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augustus713 |
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Only a handful of players have gotten back-to-back CP edits in the first 2 episodes in the 9 seasons since All Stars: Steph, Yul, Yau, Earl, Todd, Jonathan,
and Randy.
6 of the 7 have made the merge, and 3 of them were winners. I think the chances of Sierra going far are good based on her edit alone. |
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menelaus |
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I am really not getting why everyone is giving Taj a CP and loving her so much. The whole scene where she reveals that he is married to Eddie George isn't
told from her perspective, it's told from Spencer's and JT's, and then she only got one confessional on exile island. The emphasis there was much
more on Brendan, and we got more into his head. This episode felt more like a holding episode for Taj, and that next episode is going to be huge for her.
And again, why would they make Spencer the narrator? He isn't particularly exciting, and he isn't really involved in any of the action. It would have been really, really easy for the editors to have given him an INV1 this episode and nobody would have really noticed... |
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RageBot |
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So basically so far, we have to "themes" for the season - first impressions and the trek.
Pepole featured in the first impressions theme: Sandy, Stephen, Tyson, Erinn, JT, Sierra Pepole featured in the trek theme: Coach, Jerry, Stephen. |
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Warrior |
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Nice post taks.
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Jedijake |
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Here's a problem with the whole emphasis on the TREK. People like Coach and Debra keep mentioning how important it was for bonding. However, they hardly
showed any bonding that took place on the trek (or any at all). I may have to go back and watch episode 1 online again, but it doesn't seem like anyone
truly bonded on that trek.
If Sierra were to really be affected by the bonding that supposedly took place, they would be showcasing how much it affected HER. It's a forced reason to show her as a possible boot while not have substantiated reasons for her to actually be booted (because nobody dislikes her). And, if bonding DID truly take place during the trek, then why haven't they shown integral players like Coach or Tyson making actual alliances with anyone. I find that interesting. You'd think Coach would be quick to make alliances. The only person, ironically, that he made any promises to was SIERRA herself. Meanwhile, Brendan also made a little pact or at least pairing with Sierra. I find it interesting that Sierra, the one who didn't "bond" seems to have people coming to her. Oh and is Erinn REALLY getting a UTR2 this week??? |
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Dictatorship |
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IMO, Erinn was definitely not MOR. You guys need to slow down on the reaction shot business and realize that she had little to no talking time
at all.
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even number |
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i'm calling tyson at this point. it's gonna be a straight up villain win. erinn will make a good kelly wigglesworth for him....i can see him luring her
into ruthlessness and debbie, sierra, jerry etc ripping her apart for it on the jury.
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