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Survivor: Tocantins - Episode 2 (Ratings Watchdog)

Here are my final ratings for Episode 2. This season I'm going to arrange my post roughly in order of their rank on my winner's list.

Top Tier

1. Tyson: MOR3

Rating: Once again, Tyson got some good development even though he didn't appear to be central to the story. He got a confessional after the Immunity Challenge saying that Sierra was probably going to be the one voted off, and then he was "inserted" into the strategizing of the tribe in a scene with Jerry where they talked about Candace and Sierra. It seems like Tyson wanted to vote for Sierra over Candace based on his second confessional, which was about Sierra being too weak for a challenge like the physical one they had. He also had a TCQ about Sierra - interestingly, now that I think about it, his entire edit this week was based on Sierra. Hmm…

Tone: After the big debate last week, I'm glad he was neutral this time!

Visibility: I could see a 2 or a 3 for him, but since he had two confessionals, he definitely should rank above Erinn and Debbie, IMO.

VERDICT: Last week was #1

Episode 2:

Once again, Tyson got some good development even though he didn't appear to be central to the story. He seemed to get just the right amount of attention in Timbira's first Tribal Council episode without it being too much or too little, and he got some subtle moments of strategy. He continues to be my #1 choice, although he is not as high above everyone else as he was last week. Sierra inched up on him a little bit.

Episode 1:

Tyson is my #1 winner pick at the moment for a few reasons. Yes, he got an opening confessional, but let's explore that a little bit more. Stephen/Sandy got opening confessionals that pointed to Sandy being picked for Jalapao's first impressions vote. Sierra/Coach got confessionals that pointed to Sierra being picked for Timbira's vote. It obviously made sense for both of those sets of confessionals to be included in the episode. So why randomly include Tyson and Erinn as the first set that is shown? My guess as of right now is because Tyson (not Erinn) wins. Erinn's confessional told that audience that the winner was a good guy to have around and it was the first "first impression" to be shown.

In addition to that, as I said back on Thursday, Tyson got an Aras-like scene that built his character up and it was included in the episode when it did not have to be shown. In fact it added nothing really to the episode and the editors could have easily put something there about Candace or someone else on Timbira. Also, the positioning of this scene in the episode makes it seem like it was just thrown in there before the Immunity Challenge. There was *some* reason why this was put in there, and for right now, I think it's because Tyson wins.

He also got a specific confessional that introduced his character to the audience as the "not-typical Mormon."

I believe he was also the first to mention "million dollars" in the episode - the same as Todd was in China.

I believe the winner will more likely come from the Timbira tribe.

2. Sierra: CP4

Rating: Sierra got a pretty big scene with Brendan at the start of the episode where she talked about her position in the tribe and needing the hidden Immunity Idol. The big thing that stood out about her edit was self-awareness of where she fit into the tribe and how she needed to change it. I know it's obvious that she's on the outs due to the Episode 1 vote, but that doesn't mean that the edit isn't crafting her in a particular way and showing her as someone who knows what's going on. So it is for the self-awareness that she earns a CP over a MOR.

Tone: I think she was leaning P again, but I didn't really think it was as overt as Episode 1. Actually, she even had a few minor N SPVs, like Candace saying she didn't want to be here as much as everyone else and Tyson talking about how she was weak and not helping much when the tribe was gathering supplies on Day 1.

Visibility: Clear 4.

VERDICT: Last week was #2

Episode 2:

The attention that Sierra has been getting is interesting, especially for a female. Her edit is one of the strongest for a woman in recent memory. Of course, most of her visibility is times when she has to be shown, but not all of it, and she's certainly being treated in a way that makes her favourable to the audience. This episode gave her some good game insights about the hidden Immunity Idol, and I think she's still someone to watch for sure.

Episode 1:

This is difficult to say because due to her being picked by Timbira for the first vote, she had to be shown. But I think the way the editors chose to portray her is important. They portrayed her in a positive light and in a way where she overcame a first impression and improved on the way her tribemates viewed her (even though Coach still wanted to vote her out). They could have made her negative or whiny, but they didn't.

She was got an opening confessional, which last season confirmed has to be important due to Bob being shown before the credits.

I believe the winner will more likely come from the Timbira tribe, and next to Tyson, I have the fewest reasons to lower her on the list. I'm noticing some potential flaws with some of the other people, but not Sierra yet.

Second Tier

3. Stephen: CPP3

Rating: Stephen had three confessionals, all of which were good for his character development: one saying he has no idea who Eddie George is; one saying J.T. is the leader and he's really glad to get to know him; he also calls him self an "angsty city boy" compared to the "Alabama country boy." His final confessional was about the fishing trip: he said it was successful in cementing his bond with J.T. and this is where he gave the most game insight. He said that because he's J.T.'s "goofy, awkward right-hand man" J.T. is going to want to keep him around longer. I could see him just getting a MOR, but I think that the character development was significant enough for him to be considered a "well-developed" character.

Tone: A P. I feel that's the intent of the edit even though there isn't anything specific that enforces it. He just came across as a likable and good-natured guy.

Visibility: Clear 3.

VERDICT: Last week was #8

Episode 2:

Stephen makes the biggest jump up this week for his insightful comments on his relationship with J.T. and how that works into the game. I'm not convinced he'll be the winner, as much as I am that he will make at least the mid-game, but going strictly by his ratings, his edit looks very good.

Episode 1:

Stephen was interesting in that he was a part of two "paired" sets of confessionals: one with Sandy before the opening credits, and one with J.T., so he got to give his impressions of TWO players. I'm not sure what it means though. I would rank him above Spencer, but I think the only reason Stephen's confessional was in there before the opening credits is because of Sandy - it was more significant for her to be there, not him.

4. J.T.: MORP3

Rating: J.T. had two confessionals: one saying that Taj makes a lot more money than he does, and one saying he gets along well with Stephen (the city boy). He was also present in the Taj scene and the fishing scene that focused primarily on himself and Stephen.

Tone: A P because he got positive SPV from Stephen, and I just feel that there was a positive intent with his edit.

Visibility: Definitely should be a 3.

VERDICT: Last week was #3

Episode 2:

I still think Timbira remains the more complex tribe, but I also maintain that J.T. has one of the two best edits on Jalapao. He and Stephen are neck-and-neck (they could be 3-4 or 4-3), but I think Stephen got a little bit more insight into that relationship. Still, J.T. had a very strong Episode 1 edit so looking at both episodes together, he remains a great pick at this point.

Episode 1:

Even though I'm pretty certain the winner will come from Timbira at this point, J.T. definitely has the best chances out of anyone on Jalapao. Next to Sandy and Carolina, I would say he left the strongest impression and he was the next most visible after them. As I mentioned above, he was borderline CP (which is important) and he also got a strange confessional that introduced himself to the audience.

It's hard to explain why I would put one person over the other because I really do feel that most of my top seven or so are pretty even, with the exception of Tyson. Maybe it's just because I wanted to have a Jalapao up there, but I definitely do see something in J.T.'s edit.

5. Erinn: UTR2

Rating: A difficult one. No confessionals; spoke at Tribal Council about building trust (it came out of nowhere), and she was in the background of a lot of scenes. Almost everyone has already mentioned the reaction shots; I noticed them too, but I won't beat a dead horse about that. I don't think her edit was significant enough to earn a MOR. Sorry.

Tone: Like last week, I feel that she was a minor N, though it's never really emphasized enough. Still, she leans N and she seems to me like Kelly to Candace's Paloma.

Visibility: A 2. I never like to say that other people's ratings are wrong (and people can feel free to say it about mine if they choose), but like Debbie's, I really don't understand how she can be a 3, especially if someone like J.T. is only getting a 2 from some of you. Spencer and Stephen were 3s and it doesn't make sense for Erinn or Debbie to have the same number as them.

VERDICT: Last week was #5

Episode 2:

Erinn stays at my #5 spot mostly because other people's edits are clearly worse than hers right now. I don't think this edit did much to help her chances, but they didn't plummet either. Episode 3 will be important in determining if she's just another Kelly or if she can last. I actually think, if she doesn't go early, she may be involved in taking out Coach, but that wouldn't point to her winning or not winning.

Episode 1:

I initially had Erinn as #2 on my Contenders list but have since changed it. Despite being given an opening confessional (and the first of the season), I rank her outside of my top four for a few reasons. She was voted for at the first impressions vote by Brendan, yet this never came up at all in the episode and I would expect it to if she was the winner. This wouldn't just be glossed over.

But the opening confessional is important because, like I said in Tyson's write-up, there was a reason for the Sandy/Stephen confessionals and the Sierra/Coach confessionals. So why put Erinn and Tyson in there? My logic says that one of them is the winner, but considering the rest of their edits, the winner is Tyson, not Erinn. Still, that doesn't mean she won't be important to the season and tied to Tyson in some way.

I believe the winner will more likely come from the Timbira tribe.

Middle Tier

6. Sandy: MOR2

Rating: Sandy got two confessionals this week: the first said that Carolina playing her cards wrong helped Sandy stay in the game and she's underestimated. The second said that she's going to be sticking around a few more days because Jalapao won Immunity and there was a 50% chance of her going if they lost. I think, because some of her comments were game-related, she should earn a MOR edit. Look at hers in comparison to Joe or Sydney: Joe just kindof narrated about needing protein, but Sandy actually gave some insight in her confessionals.

Tone: Maybe a very, very minor P if we were supposed to be happy that she stuck around.

Visibility: A clear 2.

VERDICT: Last week was #9

Episode 2:

I said last week that she would have to get an UTR2 or MOR2 this week in order to stay in contention, and she did, so the fact that she got a cooldown is what moved her up my list. Also, even with a MOR2 edit, she still said some game-related things which I think was important and definitely keeps her on my radar. The next episode that Jalapao goes to Tribal Council will be key for her because then we'll see if the cooldown was only because Timbira lost.

Episode 1:

Sandy's edit was very intriguing to me. At one point I almost gave her CPP, and that's what's most interesting: even though her edit (and personality) was seemingly OTT, there was still quite a bit of complexity there. One of the things that stood out most to me in the entire episode was when Sandy first arrived at Jalapao and she was crying at the flag. She said "I'm gonna make it to 39 days; I'm gonna show 'em, cause maybe I am the older woman, but I'm older and I'm wiser. This game is mine. This is what I believe with all my heart. So let the games begin." This jumped out to me as a possible winner's quote (or at least indicative that she might surprisingly make it to Day 39) and I started to think: how would Sandy be edited differently than this if she had won? And I don't know that she WOULD be. Yes, her visibility was insanely high, but she had to be shown given the fact that she was picked to "not make the journey" by Jalapao. And she got a significant amount of insight about the game as well, such as "I have to look at for number one, me."

My Episode 1 rating (and the consensus) for Bob was OTTP3, so a winner getting an OTT edit in the first episode is not out of the question, especially in this instance where Sandy has a crazy personality. I can't discount her just for the OTT, especially when I feel like her edit had so much development to it.

Unless she's a MAJOR part of Episode 2 and can't avoid being shown, she'd probably have to go down to something like UTR2 or MOR2 in order to stay in…

7. Spencer: MOR3

Rating: Four narrative confessionals with not a lot of personal insight. Kept the story moving along really well. A great example of a MOR3.

Tone: Pretty neutral this time.

Visibility: A clear 3.

VERDICT: Last week was #7

Episode 2:

Spencer stays at #7 this week, even though I would say his chances are lower than last week. Why? He seems like he's going to be the "narrator" for the season, and the narrator is more than likely not going to be the winner. Still, his edit doesn't look bad just going strictly by the ratings and numbers, so he's definitely not close to elimination yet.

Episode 1:

Spencer got the second best edit on Jalapao, and as I said, it's hard to say why J.T. would be #3 and Spencer is at #7. A lot of these are interchangeable. But Spencer had a confessional introducing himself to the audience and I think that's important. The only reason this doesn't have quite as much stock is because it was pretty much a given with him being only 19 years-old. He also had a clear role in the strategy at the end of the episode, which I think could have been left out if the editors wanted to show someone else instead. Nevertheless, he's one to watch and I expect him to be around for a while.

8. Jerry: UTR2

Rating: Jerry barely earns an UTR2. He was practically INV1 until Tribal Council, and then he got two Tribal Council questions at the end.

Tone: Pretty neutral this time.

Visibility: Again, he was kindof a close call between a 1 and a 2, but I think a 2 is better.

VERDICT: Last week was #6

Episode 2:

Jerry is just on the brink of being in the "Close to Elimination" category. This was not a good episode for him being that it was the first time Timbira went to Tribal Council. I think he will need a big episode next time for him to stay in this category. If not, he gets downgraded.

Episode 1:

Jerry was definitely put onto our radars with his confessional, and not only did it introduce his character as an Army Sergeant but it was also strategically insightful with his comment about not wanting to be a leader.

I believe the winner will more likely come from the Timbira tribe, which is why Jerry ranks just above the other 3 in this category.

Close to Elimination

If not for me being extra cautious as a result of Gabon, I would probably eliminate the people in this category:

9. Brendan: CP5

Rating: I think this one is pretty self-explanatory.

Tone: N/A

Visibility: A clear 5.

VERDICT: Last week was #10

Episode 2:

Despite a strong Episode 2, his edit lacks a premiere where he made a memorable first impression and was introduced to the audience. He was only an extension of Coach in Episode 1, so we learned nothing about him. That keeps him low on my list, but I wouldn't be at all surprised for him to be in the game until Final Five or Six. The fact that he got so much development on Exile makes me think he'll be around and the alliance with Taj will prove to be significant.

Episode 1:

Even though he was featured in the scenes before the first commercial break, Brendan did not make any impression and none of his airtime was about himself. He would have been introduced as a multi-millionaire who started a granola company had he won.

Update: Brendan was introduced as an entrepreneur (not a self-made millionaire) in Episode 2. He has potential to go up significantly on my list in the next episode or two.

10. Taj: CPP4

Rating: Taj had a scene where she said who her husband was, and quite a few people talked about her here (mostly Spencer, Joe, and J.T.), so she got some SPV there. On Exile, she got a confessional about each choosing an urn for the clue to the idol, and then she got Brendan to tell her the clue. Her second confessional was the most significant one though: she talked about trying to be friendly to work Brendan over for the clue because she knew that her tribe was thinking she didn't need the money when she found out who her husband was. Like Sierra, Taj shows self-awareness of her position in the tribe IN ADDITION to strategy, so I definitely think she should be CP. She was also the one that suggested to Brendan that they had to bond because she knew she was vulnerable.

Tone: This is tough because I'm not sure it was truly the intent of the edit as much as she came across as likable and fun in a Cirie-like way. That shouldn't earn her an automotive P, but I feel that we were supposed to root for her given the scene on Exile, especially with her wanting to succeed for herself even though she doesn't need the money, so I'm giving her a WEAK P.

Visibility: Could be a 3 or a 4, but since she had an extended scene on Exile and got another scene devoted to her husband + SPV, I think a 4 is appropriate.

VERDICT: Last week was #11

Episode 2:

Despite a strong Episode 2, her edit lacks a premiere where she made a memorable first impression and was introduced to the audience. We learned nothing about her. That keeps her low on my list, but I wouldn't be at all surprised for her to be in the game until around Final Five or Six. The fact that she got quite a bit of focus on Exile makes me think she'll be around and the alliance with Brendan will prove to be significant. [Interesting that I've said essentially the same thing for Taj and Brendan both weeks]

Episode 1:

Taj did not make a strong impression and none of her airtime was about herself. She would have been introduced as an NFL wife and former pop star from SWV had she won.

Update: Taj was introduced as an NFL wife in Episode 2. She has potential to go up significantly on my list in the next episode or two.

11. Coach: MORN4

Rating: This is a tough one because I could see CPN, MORN, or OTTN all working. I started this post thinking I was giving him OTTN, and then I changed it to MORN. I know that some people will disagree with my reasoning, but PART of my reasoning is that I think he had some complex moments and some more over-the-top moments, and it's hard to go with one over the other in that instance. He had three confessionals: one saying that Candace looks for flaws in people just for the heck of it, but he does it because he's a coach (= ARROGANT). His second confessional said everyone was fed up with Candace's negative attitude, and his third confessional said that the girls think they're voting for Sierra but the obvious choice was Candace and "hopefully she has her bags packed cause she's outta here." All of that was somewhat complex at times, but none of his strategic thought were particularly insightful or well-developed. At the same time, nothing was really overly simplified (contrary to what I thought before). At Tribal Council, he said that no one's going to tell you if you're not gelling with the tribe so you're gonna have to know that yourself, and he talked about what Brendan said about the clue and said he trusts him.

Tone: Definitely N this time. He got N SPV about his performance in the challenge (even from Jeff), and he did come across as very arrogant again.

Visibility: Clear 4.

VERDICT: Last week was #4

Episode 2:

Coach goes WAY down on my list after this episode. A CPN/MORN start is not good (originally, I had OTTN). Candace said something about his ego being his downfall, and I believe that this will happen 100%. Therefore, if this is right, he won't win but he'll probably last until around the Final Six or so and then get taken out of the game because he's been getting significant focus which suggests he'll be around awhile.

Episode 1:

Coach could potentially be an "obvious winner" like some of the male winners of recent seasons past, but I put him lower on my list because I think he's more likely to go one of two ways: 1) Either he ironically gets taken out of the game by a so-called "weak" player (most likely Sierra); or 2) He ends up getting beaten by a so-called "worthy opponent" (most likely Brendan or Jerry) and dies with honor and glory. Therefore, while his edit definitely has potential, he's not going to be the winner if either of these scenarios comes true.

Still, he got a confessional before the opening credits, introduced himself to the audience as a "Renaissance Man," and I believe the winner will more likely come from the Timbira tribe, which is why I put him up here.

Eliminated by Edgic

12. Joe: UTR2

Rating: The only time we really saw him was during the termite-eating scene at Jalapao, but he also had a minor role talking about Eddie George in the Taj scene.

Tone: N/A

Visibility: I could see either a 1 or a 2, but he did speak quite a bit during the termite scene and he had a confessional, so I think he had more than Sydney.

VERDICT: Last week was #12

Episode 2:

Not a strong enough first or second episode to win. Moves into the eliminated category this week.

Episode 1:

Not a strong enough first episode to win.

13. Sydney: UTR1

Rating: Just one short confessional during the termite-eating scene and then some challenge visibility, but that's about all. Definitely UTR.

Tone: N/A

Visibility: The lowest of everyone in the episode. Definitely a 1.

VERDICT: Last week was #13

Episode 2:

Not a strong enough first or second episode to win. Moves into the eliminated category this week.

Episode 1:

Not a strong enough first episode to win.

14. Debbie: UTRN2

Rating: I can understand why some people are giving her OTTs, but she seemed so underutilized to me and not emphasized enough to really get an OTT. I would have to say that UTR fits a lot better.

Tone: I considered giving her a Mixed just because I see the first part of her edit ("cheerleading" with Brendan/Sierra digging the fire pit) as being somewhat positive, but after seeing her tattle to Coach and her comment at Tribal Council, the overall impression that I was left with was N, and I think this outweighed the first part of her edit. I also see that, like with Tyson, there is a bit of ambiguity with people rating her P and N, but instead of M, I'm going to side with the N group.

Visibility: A 2. I never like to say that other people's ratings are wrong (and people can feel free to say it about mine if they choose), but like Erinn's, I really don't understand how she can be a 3, especially if someone like J.T. is only getting a 2 from some of you. Spencer and Stephen were 3s and it doesn't make sense for Debbie or Erinn to have the same number as them.

VERDICT: Last week was #14

Definitely cannot win, but she's more likely to stick around for a while than Candace is.

Voted Out

15. Candace: OTTN5

Rating: She definitely had some brief moments of complexity, but I felt that she was very simplified in the end with comments like "poison apple" and "cancer." She seemed to exemplify negativity with comments like "I probably won't go. We can sit here and talk crap" about Sierra and Brendan's supposed fire pit. Then she had that little argument with Coach about the rice and had a ranting confessional about being an educated woman and not taking crap from people. Again, a bit of complexity in saying that he would feel insecure and apologize, but then the moment with the kiss was just very OTT for both of them and I really don't see the complexity in her edit aside from that one instance. The rest of the time it seemed so simplified and that they were trying to make it look like she had no idea what was going on: in two of her confessionals, she said things like "Someone" has to go now and "if Sierra doesn't go home, there's mad shadiness going on" when it was incredibly obvious that she was going to go. That doesn't seem complex to me.

Tone: Even though I do think we were meant to agree with her about Coach, I don't think that erases her obvious negativity.

Visibility: I'm going by Warrior's chart on this one. I was personally leaning more towards a 4, just because I count confessionals like ILT's thread.

VERDICT: Last week was #15

Episode 1:

From my Episode 1 post: "Definitely cannot win. Based on editing, I predict Mary v.2.0 with her." At least I got one thing right this season!

CHART: