This is a list of moves in the game's history that most fans consider blunders but upon further scrutiny were logically justified.
20. Jan rejects alliance with Ted and Helen
(Thailand)
Conventional Wisdom: Jan should have sided with Ted and Helen at F5, or with Helen at F4.
Rebuttal: Suppose Jan does side with Ted and Helen at F5, and Clay goes. Now if Brian doesn't win the F4 IC, he goes next. But if he does, then
Jan's fate depends on Brian. If both Ted and Helen tried to renew their alliance with Brian, and Brian accepts both (thinking he'll throw the last IC),
then Jan's out. Only if Brian decides to break one of those two alliances does Jan have a shot, but at that point, Brian would have little incentive to do
that, and even if he decided to, say, take out Helen and work with Ted to get to the finals, Jan would still have to win the last IC, the same scenario she was
already facing.
Now let's look at the F4 situation. If she goes with Brian and Clay, she's guaranteed the F3. And there's a $15,000 difference between third and
fourth place -- nothing to overlook. If Jan's in the F3, she has a chance (allbeit a small one) to win the IC, and if she does, she wins the game, no
matter who she takes with her. But if she goes for a tie, she has a 33% chance of drawing the purple rock, worst-case scenario. If Helen draws the rock,
Jan's in the same boat she was already in. If Clay draws, Helen if she wins the last IC may bring Jan to the finals out of gratitude, but rationally, Helen
should take Brian, because he made more enemies. If Brian wins IC in that scenario, he's definitely taking Helen, so Jan's basically in the same
situation: win immunity, win the game; lose, get third place.
Bottom line: Jan could easily get to F3 in a lot of scenarios, but the only way she gets to the finals in any scenario is to win the last IC
herself, since no one in their right mind would take relatively likeable Jan to the finals; that's certain doom. Therefore, Jan's ideal f3 would
include the two people she's most likely to beat in the last IC, Clay and Helen. But that was impossible to engineer because of Brian's immunity wins.
So what's the next best thing? Brian and Clay, because Clay was the easiest for her to beat in front of the jury. Jan's no strategic genius, but gets a
lot of unfair flack even though she was in an untenable position.
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Top 20 Survivor Blunders That Weren't Really Blunders (#5 Up!)
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 King Lord |
Top 20 Survivor Blunders That Weren't Really Blunders (#5 Up!) |
Lead | |
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Posts: 70 (05/02/09 09:43 PM) Registered user |
Last Edited By: King Lord 01/18/10 11:23 AM.
Edited 22 times.
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spnintendo |
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Posts: 5616 (05/02/09 11:02 PM) Registered User |
Lol nice list idea.
And considering how Jan was supposedly the "next to go" after Chauy Gahn's third loss, she might just be the luckiest player ever, netting herself third place having to do little to no strategizing of her own the entire season. 
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survivorisdabest |
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Posts: 2932 (05/02/09 11:30 PM) Registered User |
nice list idea!
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Thailandsurvivor |
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Posts: 6585 (05/02/09 11:47 PM) |
spnintendo wrote:But she got third place because she didn't do anything. The only time Jan did any strategizing during the game was with Ghandia after grindgate. |
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Cuauhtemoc Gilmore |
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Posts: 18079 (05/03/09 12:21 AM) OMEDETO, CATHY!! |
Aww I loved Jan because she was batshit crazy (no pun intended).
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Thailandsurvivor |
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Posts: 6587 (05/03/09 12:22 AM) |
I loved Jan just for her interactions with Clay.
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 chapera rocks |
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Posts: 10945 (05/03/09 12:36 AM) Registered User |
"THERE'S MONEY!!!!!"
"What does the note say??" "LOOKEE HERE THERE'S AMERICAN MONEY!!!!!" "What does the note say?????" "I'MMA BUY ME A BEER!!!" "WHAT DOES THE NOTE SAY????" "Its an auction!" "No shit, sherlock." 
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King Lord |
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Posts: 71 (05/03/09 04:23 PM) Registered user |
19. Danielle votes out Courtney, Shane (Exile Island)
 Conventional Wisdom: Danielle should have voted with Courtney and Terry at F6, or with Shane and Terry at F5. Rebuttal: Before we take a closer look, we have to keep one thing in mind: Bruce was med-evac'd at F7. That's an extraordinary piece of bad luck for Danielle, not only because Bruce would have been unflinchingly loyal to her, but also because she could have used him at F7 to form a counter-alliance, most likely with Courtney and Terry. I don't know if Danielle was thinking along these lines at the time, but the point is, even if she were, that option, perhaps the best option, was off the table through no fault of her own. Then at F6, she's in an impossible situation. If she votes with Courtney and Terry, she's more likely to win in the F2 (against Courtney), but less likely to get there (because of Terry); if she votes with Cirie and Aras, she's more likely to get to F2, but less likely to win there. Of course, we know that Danielle would go on to win the last IC, but at F6, given that Terry was a powerhouse, she had no way of knowing she'd be able to win that IC. Sure, Terry offered her a spot in the finals if she came in second, but 1) that was unlikely, given her knowledge at time, because Courtney was better competitor that she was, and 2) even if it happened, she wouldn't win the game. Let's look at F5: Shane had no respect for Danielle and tried to get rid of her the vote previous. Even if Danielle had tried to make a deal with Shane, he would've refused it, thinking Aras and Cirie had his back, and if Danielle had ratted out Aras and Cirie, Shane (being an idiot), not believing it, would spill the beans to Aras and Cirie, who might've gone after Danielle for the betrayal. And even if Shane had accepted the offer, and everything worked out, Danielle would still be in a bad F3 situation, with her and Shane, two mediocre competitors, up against Terry, a challenge god. Bottom Line: Danielle's no rocket scientist, and if she had a better social game (particularly regarding Sally and Austin), she might've had a decent chance to win in the finals no matter what course she took. But she was really stuck between a rock and a hard place, particularly with the F6 vote, yet she gets so much flack for her decision.
Last Edited By: King Lord
05/06/09 01:41 AM.
Edited 4 times.
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Die Apokalyptischen Reiter |
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Posts: 1441 (05/03/09 04:32 PM) |
Eliminating Shane was the right decision for her.
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Cuauhtemoc Gilmore |
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Posts: 18089 (05/03/09 04:49 PM) OMEDETO, CATHY!! |
I think turning on Courtney was a bad move, imo. She was most likely this season's goat given how hated she was.
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cardswin5 |
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Posts: 1392 (05/03/09 05:57 PM) Registered user |
Watching Courtney,Shane and Cirie (the best characters of the season) all go down in flames was so sad.
 Makes for a horrifically boring finale.
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JaMalle |
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Posts: 4462 (05/05/09 10:09 AM) Registered User |
JUST LOST A GOOD DETAILED POST ABOUT DANIELLE BUT THAT'S OK! Danielle <3
Great topic, keep listing. |
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colleenlover |
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Posts: 9221 (05/05/09 10:43 AM) Registered User |
jan should have done the rock.
she's already pocketed 60 thousand for the summer months off of teaching, so she's ahead. She knows by doing nothing, it has been dictated to her by Brian that she is third place. She adored Helen, By pushing the rock, she has two/thirds of staying -one where Helen stays in the game and knows Brian targetted her and won't take him out of gratitude and respect to Jan. And the other where Helen goes and it makes no difference to the predicament she was in before. And of course the third where she goes, but her friend stays in the game. By being up that much money in the first place, it was time to gamble. It's just how I feel and how I would play -same with All-stars. |
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unduli clone |
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Posts: 5634 (05/05/09 01:12 PM) Registered User |
Jan did make a better choice voting Ted out at the F5. I'm with cl on the F4 boat, though, thinking maybe she should've forced that rock. Danielle was screwed at the F6. Even if she jumped ship with Courtney and Terry, he would still take Shane and Courtney over her. She could either go with the IC threat and two goats bigger than her, or the IC threat and two people who wouldn't axe her at the earliest opportunity. I thinks he should've pushed Shane as the one to go at F6 and sided with Courtney/Terry at F4. She was pretty much between a rock and a hard place no matter what went down after Bruce's evacuation, though. |
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JackSparrowBauer |
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Posts: 952 (05/05/09 01:16 PM) |
how come I haven't seen this until now?
I really like this idea, too. I agree about the Danielle move. She was screwed either way, but she had a better shot of getting to the Finals with Aras and Cirie. |
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spnintendo |
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Posts: 5659 (05/05/09 01:26 PM) Registered User |
I remember how Danielle was so confident she had beat Aras. And when that second vote was read for her, I thought the spoilers were totally right. Fortunately
it was all a bunch of crap and the rest is history. ^_^
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Quiddity |
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Posts: 5406 (05/05/09 06:51 PM) Registered User |
Great choice on #19, I'd be livid like Amanda if that wasn't included on this list. :P People who bash Danielle, call her a goat a la Katie or Dreamz
or some other huge goat are either forgetting or purposely neglecting a lot of things. For starters, Danielle was royally screwed by Bruce's illness. Bruce
was a very close ally to hers, and someone she likely could have beaten, and he left the game due to an illness that she couldn't do anything about.
Second, while Courtney was probably not as much of a threat to her as she was to Cirie, Danielle would certainly get passed over for Courtney if they went with
Terry's plan and Terry won that final challenge. Those bashing her are doing so in hindsight, knowing she won that final immunity challenge. At the time
there was no way she'd know that Terry the challenge whore would lose the last challenge and she'd be the one in the position to choose who to go to
the end with. Third, those who are criticizing her for voting out Shane are conveniently forgetting that Shane was gunning for her hard, having voted for her
not just at that TC, but at the previous one too. Priority number one should be keeping yourself in the game. Danielle had no choice but to vote him out. And
finally, things were closer than they now appear. The fact remains that Austin & Sally's votes were up in the air and could have been hers if she had
played a better social game with them. It wasn't a big blowout like Danielle bashers would like to make it out to be. Danielle's big mistake was not
playing bad strategically, it was not playing a better social game with them when she had the chance. Could have won the game 4-3 had she done so.
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Die Apokalyptischen Reiter |
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Posts: 1475 (05/05/09 07:36 PM) |
unduli clone wrote: X |
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JackSparrowBauer |
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Posts: 962 (05/05/09 08:28 PM) |
I was surprised at the time of the finale that Austin didn't vote for her. I thought he would've remembered their Exile Island bond since it happened
right before he got out.
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survivorisdabest |
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Posts: 2968 (05/05/09 09:47 PM) Registered User |
Quiddity wrote: X!!! Screw Austin for forgetting that they were BFF on exile and screw Sally for forgetting that Danielle (yes it was Danielle who made the decision) saved her right before the merge O_O DILORENZOWNAGE She is seriously so underrated. IMO she is the 2nd best that season in terms of strategy by far. |
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YemaGrl1988 |
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Posts: 5606 (05/05/09 10:13 PM) Registered user |
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