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18. Jaime and Peih-Gee throw the first immunity challenge after the tribal swap (China)

Conventional Wisdom: Jaime and Peih-Gee shouldn't have risked throwing the challenge and making enemies.

Rebuttal: I don't know why some people still think this was a bad move. Recall the situation: Before the swap, Zhan Hu were getting creamed in the challenges, to the point where the numbers were 7-5 against them. The swap gave Zhan Hu the two strongest members of Fei Long, James and Aaron. At this point, Jaime and Peih-Gee had two choices: (A) form a new alliance with James and Aaron, or (B) throw the challenges to get rid of them. Option A was impossible, because both James and Aaron had every intention of jumping back to Fei Long as soon as the tribes merged, regardless of any promises Jaime/Peih-Gee made to them, and the two ladies knew this. So by process of elimination, they had to go for option B.

Yes, option B assumed that the merge happened at ten players left, that the orignal tribal alliances would be unbreakable, and that Frosti and Sherea would stay loyal to Zhan Hu. But all of these were reasonable assumptions to make, based on precedent and on all the information available at that point. Basically, Zhan Hu was in a situation where a lot had to go right for any of them to have a chance to win: the merge has to happen at 10, they had to get all five members to the merge, all five had to stick together, and they had win the tiebreaker. Throwing the challenge was making the best of a bad situation.

Bottom line: Peih-Gee and (mostly) Jaime did botch the execution of the plan (i.e., not briefing Erik, being so obvious, admitting it at TC, not following through with James), but the plan itself was solid, as there was no viable alternative.

Some of you are still insisting that Jan should have forced the tie at F4. I'll try to make my point about Jan's non-blunder by comparing her situation to that of someone who I think did make a blunder by not forcing a tie, Jenna Lewis in All-Stars F4.

If Jenna voted with Rupert, there were three possible outcomes (as far as we know):
a. Jenna herself goes - worst case scenario
b. Rupert goes anyway - same difference
c. Rob goes - best case scenario, as Jenna would then be guaranteed the finals

The basic question Jenna had to ask herself was: does the gamble's potential payoff outweigh the potential cost? In this case, the answer was yes, because of the guaranteed F2 spot if Rob goes.

Contrast that with Jan's situation; if she voted with Helen, these were the outcomes:
a. Jan herself goes - worst case scenario
b. Helen goes anyway - same difference

c. Clay goes - (and this is the crux of my argument) in this scenario, even though Helen would be grateful to Jan and mad at Brian's betrayal, if she won the final IC, strategically she'd have to take Brian, because he'd be easier to beat in front of the jury than Jan would. So, if Helen's thinking strategically (and my opinion is that she would be), Jan would still be in a position where she'd have to win the final IC to make the F2.

So in this case, the gamble's potential payoff doesn't outweigh the cost. Why risk going home yourself to save someone who has no strategic interest in taking you to the finals? That would be dumb, and it's the reason I don't consider Jan's move a blunder.

No. 17 will be up soon.