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13. (tie) Shii Ann votes with Lex and Kathy against Amber -AND-
Boston Rob tells Lex and Kathy that he's voting off Lex (All-Stars)



Conventional Wisdom: Shii Ann should have insisted that Amber be voted off.
Rob should have blindsided Lex to ease the latter's pain.

Rebuttal: For the record, I think Lex and Kathy voting to keep Amber is one of the worst craptacular blunders in the history of franchise. But Shii Ann gets lumped in with their stupidity, and for the life of me I can't figure out why. Once Lex and Kathy made their decision, there was nothing Shii Ann could do but vote with them. If Lex's plans with Rob came to fruition, Shii Ann would have ousted at F6 or earlier (although Shii Ann didn't know this), so what would voting against the grain do other than alienate her even more? She may or may not have done more to dissuade them, but once the choice was set, she had to lock step.

On the way Rob dealt with things: first, I don't think anyone would dispute that breaking the deal was the right thing for Rob to do. Where people disagree is how exactly Rob should have handled it, and I think, in principle, he made the right call. Lex was going to be upset either way; if Rob had pretended the deal was on, and then blindsided him, Lex would have complained about Rob not being man enough to tell him to his face what was going to happen. And remember, Lex himself had an odd habit of telling people he was going to vote them off (even when it was ridiculously stupid to do so), so I figure Rob was trying to show Lex the same courtesy. Rob shouldn't have gotten into a shouting match with Lex and Kathy afterwards, but I do think he should have told him.

One could argue that briefing Lex beforehand would give him a chance to make a counter-move, but what counter-moves could Lex have made at that point, given the egregious error the vote previous? Yes, the betrayal cost Rob a jury vote, but Lex was going to vote against him regardless. And Rob could have gotten that fourth vote by either (a) waiting until he knew for sure Amber was ousted before making an F2 deal with Alicia, or (b) using Tom as the swing vote at F5 (or at the very least not disrespecting Tom during jury questions).

Bottom Line: Shii Ann made the only move she could in a bad situation, while Boston Rob traversed what he knew was going to be a rocky road.

Had your #13 been "Lex and Kathy boot Jerri," I'd almost agree... they were operating under assumptions that simply were not that far-fetched... booting Jerri was not that retarded.

Don't get me wrong -- it's not in my list of top 3 Survivor blunders, but I do think it was pretty craptacular. I get the counter-argument that Lex and Kathy were just expecting someone who was a friend outside the game, and with whom they may or may not have had a pre-game alliance, to keep his word. But that was a flawed expectation, given how Rob had behaved in Marquesas, and how Lex himself had been behaving up to that point: putting the game ahead of friendships. Why expect someone else not to do that when you yourself are doing it?

However, you decide to instead claim Shii Ann made the right decision in following Lex and Kathy. If those two were in the wrong, Shii Ann was just as much. She probably couldn't have saved Jerri, but we never did see her push hard to try. Considering people don't often go around bashing Shii Ann for voting Jerri, the little bit of flak she gets for being a lame follower is pretty much warranted.

First, her being a follower isn't germane to the point I'm making. Second, I don't think Shii Ann is equally culpable because (1) she didn't make the final decision, (2) even if she had forcefully made the counter-argument, Lex and Kathy would still have voted against Jerri, and (3) even if Shii Ann were so insistent that she voted against the grain, she would have accomplished nothing and weakened her position.

...Rob handled Lex's boot horribly. It's not that he told Lex he was going. It's the way he did it. Nobody says Rob should have blindsided his friend. He simply should have handled the whole situation much better.

I already said Rob shouldn't have gotten into a shouting match with Lex. But my main point was that, in my opinion, Lex was such a hypocritical douche that he would have voted against Rob no matter what Rob did or how he did it. Even if Rob had been the epitome of class and tact when he told Lex, Lex would still have been bitter about the betrayal come jury time. Rob lost the game primarily by mishandling Tom and Alicia, not by mishandling Lex.

Aitu throwing the challenge was dumb... You start out on five tribes, you know things can't stay that way for long. You don't go booting one of your members going into a potential swap.

Obviously in situation with four tribes, a merge into two tribes is going to happen at some point, but Ozzy and J.P. couldn't have known exactly when that would occur. And you do boot one of your members if you know they're a hyper-schemer who's not going to be loyal to you after a swap, and that was exactly the situation with Billy.

Anyway, on with the countdown...































12. Ami gets Lisa voted off instead of Rory (Vanuatu) good catch Mikester ;)



Conventional Wisdom: Ami should have let Rory get voted out so that the women would be guaranteed superior numbers.

Rebuttal: At that point in the game, the men were already down 7-5, so theoretically the best they could do was tie. So instead Ami, it seemed, was willing to take a short-term risk for a potentially huge long-term payoff. Recall that Eliza had cost Yasur the RC, Leanne had cost them the IC, and Rory was the only male on the tribe; each had reason (real or not) to feel vulnerable, and Ami decided to exploit those vulnerabilities to get votes sooner rather than later. Armed with this power, Ami couldn't have used it against Scout, because that would alienate Twila after the merge, so that only left Lisa, who had previously turned on her initial alliance (and thus demonstrated untrustworthiness) and who probably wouldn't be loyal to Ami in the long-term anyway.

Keep in mind also that, for Ami's gamble to payoff, both Twila and Julie had to be protected since they were on Lopevi with the other men. If Rory had been ousted, the men would have seen that the gender war was on, and would definitely have excised Twila or (most likely) Julie if they lost an IC. But if, to their surprise, Yasur keeps Rory, the Lopevi men may start to think that the gender politics don't matter, and would be more willing to boot one of their own, which is exactly what happened.

Bottom Line: Ami's campaign against Lisa seemed like a personal vote made on a whim, but it actually turned out to be a well-conceived (if risky) maneuver. I think that Ami would have turned on Lisa whether she misspoke or not, because the move made sense for her.