One of the many attributes of an All-Stars season is that all of us loyal fans have an opportunity to engage in substantial pre-game speculation that we
can't normally do. We know the players, we know the tribes, and we know how Survivor works. From the get-go, the producers probably had some semblance of
an idea of how things would work out. We're capable of the same. Here's what I see:
On the Heroes tribe, we've got a lot of compatible personalities and a lot of charm and raw strength. Inevitably, the laid-back alpha males are going to team up. All the guys on this tribe are going to get along just fine, and I have a hard time not seeing JT, James, Tom, and Colby clicking immediately. They'll happily involve Rupert, and then all the males are going to start pulling in their own individual relationships. JT's close with Sugar, so he'll keep her safe. Tom will be looking to protect Stephenie. James will stick by Amanda. JT and Rupert have potential relationships on the other tribe, but Rupert's isn't going to make him a target. JT's in an interesting spot, however. He should be completely safe, but of all the men on his tribe, I think he's the most vulnerable. An outed showmance and a three-way alliance with two of the guys on the Villains tribe is going to put a major target on his back, especially from females like Candice. If something crazy happens on this tribe, it'll be JT who pays the price.
But I don't think that'll happen. There will be talk, but it won't amount to anything substantial. No, it's the girls who are in trouble, particularly those without solid ties to one of the men. Cirie especially is in a bad spot. People are gunning for her. Her only chance is to get everyone paranoid about the power all the alpha males wield, but she doesn't have the numbers to make something come of that. She might have no problem getting Candice (and maybe even Steph) on board, but Sugar's going to protect the boys and Amanda's not going to leave James' side. So she'll have to lay low, and unfortunately, I think that's going to be tough. She could have easily done it in Exile Island, and I think she could have pulled it off in Micronesia. But by this point, her reputation is just too great. She's a major candidate to be the first boot from her tribe. I have hope that she'll have something up her sleeve, but realistically, it can't be expected.
Candice is a similar position, but without the enormous target on her back. Unlike Cirie, Candice should actually be able to coast. Put her fear of the boys' club on the back burner until she hits a stage of the game where she can actually do something about it. If she strikes early, all she's going to accomplish is getting herself slotted for elimination above Cirie, who will be smart enough to let Candice sink. No, Candice has a much better chance if she instead keeps the pressure on the Micronesia clique. Cirie's an obvious target, but there's a lot of contention brewing around the James/Amanda/Parvati trio, and that's the group Candice needs to ensure is in the spotlight if she wants to be able to slide through to a shuffle.
And I think it'll be easy enough to pull off. Most of the Heroes' vendettas can be postponed until they get a chance to go head-to-head with the villains. But the presence of the Micronesia kids is an issue that can be dealt with right from the get-go, and I think it's the most pressing item on the agenda after Cirie's eviction. Amanda carries some perception of "threat" despite the fact that she's not much of a proactive player, and it'll be easy to rally votes against her. James will do his damnedest to protect her, but how much influence does he really have? With the strong wills of Tom and Colby calling the shots, James is going to be able to persuade them to keep Amanda in the game. James isn't a good enough player to cut ties and let her drop, so I think he'll damage his own game quite a bit when Amanda leaves, but leave she will. Like Candice and Cirie, her best chances lie in getting things turned around on some of the men, but Amanda doesn't have the foresight to make that happen, and she'll blindly stick by the challenge strength until the Heroes attend their second TC.
If things progress beyond that point, it's hard to say what might happen. Sugar has a ton of enemies and people who despise her enough to pursue her elimination, but all of them are on the other tribe. Until they're combined, she doesn't have too much to worry about. Tom had no problem keeping challenge threats in Palau, Colby guns for strategic threats over physical prowess, and James doesn't have any physical threats to be concerned with in the first place, so I don't see the men turning on each other. Which sucks for Candice, because it only makes it harder and harder for her to bide time with each consecutive vote. Pushing for a play early on is almost guaranteed to backfire, but the longer she lasts and the more dire her situation becomes, the more inclined she'll have to become to putting her neck on the line for a big payoff. Ultimately, some crack will surface and she'll have to try to make the most of that. It's difficult to tell where it'll happen, be it in James' alienation after Amanda's boot, fear of the JT/Sugar coupling, or Tom's status as an amazing player, but she'll need to try and exploit it. As much as I'd like to give the women benefit of the doubt (especially since we have possibly the strongest female cast of all time here), it's a tough group to break and I don't see the boys falling apart early in the game. They're just not aggressive enough (or stupid enough) to start taking out the shields who are protecting them.
Fortunately for the women of the Heroes tribe, I think the Villains tribe is going to be in much worse shape, challenge-wise. Whereas Heroes' men consist of challenge beasts (including two of the strongest challenge competitors of all time in Tom and Colby) and their women minus Cirie are incredibly tough in the physical department, the Villains are simply little more than above-average. Cirie is the sole liability for the Heroes (and likely their first boot). The combination of Courtney and Sandra, however, is going to hold back the Villains a lot more. And while they have some strong competitors in Tyson, Russell, and Rob, they don't have the brute force to go along with their physical agility, and everyone else on the tribe is simply unimpressive. So I very much expect that the Villains are going to be seeing a lot more voting than the Heroes, at least until a swap occurs.
So who's the immediate target over there? A lot of people seem to have it out for Parvati. Either they're afraid of her specifically or they're afraid of her connection to James and Amanda. And that's going to present her with an immediate uphill battle, especially considering she doesn't have that much to offer in tribal Immunity Challenges. Her one saving grace might come in the form of Russell, who seems to be trying a strategy similar to his play the first time he competed in Samoa. I fully expect him to take Parvati and Danielle under his wing, both aggressive, seductive, but not too book-smart girls who I see Russell getting along with. He went for the southern belles last time around, but those aren't to be found on this tribe, so he'll go for the next best thing. Russell says he wants to play follower to Rob, and Rob will be glad to have him (especially since nobody will see Russell as an uber threat right off the bat). I think the loathing of the Coach/Tyson duo will be too much for Russell to pass up, and just like he wanted to drag Ben as far as he could in Samoa, he'll look to do the same with that pair.
Which leaves a few people on the outs of these (Russell-centric) dynamics. I think Jerri's too old for Russell to view as a plaything, but I think she's smart enough to keep her mouth shut when it comes to challenging him. As much as Jerri would like to be HBIC, she never seems to piss off men as much as make the women jealous. As long as she gets along with someone, be it Rob or Parvati or Danielle, she has a bit of safety. Even if she never forms solid relationships, she can fly UTR for a little bit. In a way, the same goes for Randy. He's antagonistic and can be quite the curmudgeon, but he knows when to play nice and shut up. He seems content to follow the top dogs, and that's going to pay off well, especially if someone like Rob or Russell thinks they can use him.
It's Sandra and Courtney who are going to have a much harder time of it, especially since the spotlight will be on them right from the get-go for their lack of challenge strength. I can't see either of them taking kindly to Russell's scheming, Rob's dictatorial strategizing, or Coach's delusions. And I can't see either of them keeping quiet about it. Question is, who's going to piss off more people faster? I think here is where Sandra benefits from a little age and wisdom. She's still a fiery Latina who's going to give the douchebag men a piece of her mind, but I do think she might find at least one relationship somewhere in there to cling to. Courtney, however, is going to have nothing. Just like Shii Ann's snark got her ostracized by the majority in the first All-Stars, Courtney's wisecracks are going to make her no friends amongst this crowd, and I can't see her lasting past the first vote. Unless Sandra really screws up and attempts to take charge, Courtney's in too much danger to have a chance at escaping the boot.
If both of my two leading ladies are kicked out and the Villains are still facing Tribal, the schemers and plotters on the tribe are going to start cutting throats (and if they get to that point, I think that would end up being their downfall as a whole). Rob's not going to be able to sit pretty while other alpha males are calling shots, Russell's not going to be able to stomach other strategists pulling all the strings, and I think Tyson's going to be mighty paranoid about power players having the potential to blindside him once again, simply by keeping more of the worthless players in their back pocket. So the knives will come out. And honestly, I think Rob (and his reputation) might be the first one to pay the price. If Russell snatches up a couple of female followers and Tyson keeps Coach close, Rob's going to find himself without true friends and with a legacy for domination. He's the only villain (that they know of) who truly succeeded in his reign of horror, and that's going to make him the most intimidating one. With everyone biting at the bit to get him out and a tribe full of players who are willing to do the dastardly, he'll be in danger and lack the protection needed to escape from it.
Eventually, of course, a shuffle will come, a twist will occur, a swap will go down. Things will be shaken up, and it's always hard to say how they'll affect the outcome. But a few things seem clear even after the initial divisions are no more. First of all, JT & Sugar are going to have to start dodging bullets once they end up facing the Villains. JT's already got a target on his back as a likable winner, but people want Sugar out bad and his relationship with her is not going to help him. They're not Romber 2.0, I'll guarantee you that.
Tom and Colby will get a lot of attention as Survivor's golden boys. James and Rupert are threats in one sense, but they're threats that the cast knows they can deal with at any point down the road. Tom and Colby are threats in every sense, and I don't think there's anyone who's not afraid of them. Colby and Jerri will never be able to trust each other enough to work together, and that will kill them if they end up on the same tribe. Tom has one "solid" ally in Stephenie, but she'll turn on him if she thinks she needs to. The two of them are going to have to play very powerful games if they want to make it deep. With all the challenge strength in this cast, neither Tom nor Colby are going to be able to make pleas that rely solely on their physical dominance. At the end of the day, I can't see them going too far, but I wish them the best.
Jerri, Candice, Stephenie, Danielle, and Parvati will all be seen as weak players to drag, all to varying degrees. For Jerri, her success will depend on Colby and whether she can find a solid relationship with anyone else. If Colby guns for her, he could succeed in destroying her chances. But even if she outlasts him, she's going to need a strong ally she can trust, because I don't think the women are ever going to have the numbers to dominate as a group. Candice is similar to Jerri, but without the Colby complication. If she can get someone like Russell to pull her in, she'll be in a fantastic position, set to pull a Natalie. Stephenie is too strong-willed to last in this group, and she won't be content taking orders from other players. That will do her in. I don't see why there would be a rush to boot her, but I can see justification being found for voting her out, and I can see her coming up with no real way to defend herself. Danielle and Parvati need to cling to Russell for as long as they can. Danielle's not the most socially adept person and a lot of her LA connections are going to be cut very quickly. She can't afford to play her own strong, individual game, not until much of it has progressed. If she ever gets disconnected from her allies, she needs to work to make new ones and stay flexible. The same goes for Parvati, except the target on her back is much bigger so she's much more vulnerable. Again, she needs to stick by Russell and use his game against him only when things get down to the wire. She can't use her pre-existing relationship with James because it'll only get more votes stacked against her (and I'm not sure James would trust her entirely anyway).
Randy and Rupert are like the male versions of the above women. They need to play UTR games and I think they both have it in them to do so. I could see either one of them (or both of them) going far, much the way Rupert did in ASS. They key lies in not threatening anyone and finding people who want to use them as numbers. If they can do that, they have the edge over the aforementioned women simply because they, you know, have that Y chromosome. Winning a jury vote isn't an issue they really have to worry about too much, it's about not letting anyone become afraid of them. I don't think there's enough room for both of them to truly go far, but mark my words, at least one of them will.
Coach and Tyson are an interesting duo, and I really have no idea how things are going to go for them. I don't think any of the men will have a real problem dragging Coach, but if some of the women have influence and get fed up, that could seal his fate. He's not threatening, but he's also not that useful. Ultimately, Russell will drag him a ways and then dump him once he becomes unmanageable. At the very least, Coach's chances look better than Tyson's, who should be considered a much bigger threat. The kid's strong in challenges and eager to kick ass. He'll need to dial it back if he wants to find safety. Unfortunately, I don't think he's capable of that. Even before Coach, the power players will be looking to get rid of him.
So as I see it, the following people are going to likely face early departures:
Courtney, Sandra, Cirie, Amanda, Rob
With some of these people filling out the rest of the pre-merge boots:
Stephenie, Sugar, JT, James, Colby, Tom
Once the merge hits, these players are going to start dropping like flies:
Jerri, Tyson, Coach, Candice
Leaving us with an end game that looks something like this:
Randy, Rupert, Parvati, Danielle, Russell
I think I'm gonna pray the exact opposite happens. As it stands, I'm pretty much assuming this plays out a lot like Samoa, with Russell calling the shots and following the same exact strategy of carrying do-nothings to the end, with a mixture of ASS where the likable threats leave before the merge and the former power players fall apart once that merge hits.
On the Heroes tribe, we've got a lot of compatible personalities and a lot of charm and raw strength. Inevitably, the laid-back alpha males are going to team up. All the guys on this tribe are going to get along just fine, and I have a hard time not seeing JT, James, Tom, and Colby clicking immediately. They'll happily involve Rupert, and then all the males are going to start pulling in their own individual relationships. JT's close with Sugar, so he'll keep her safe. Tom will be looking to protect Stephenie. James will stick by Amanda. JT and Rupert have potential relationships on the other tribe, but Rupert's isn't going to make him a target. JT's in an interesting spot, however. He should be completely safe, but of all the men on his tribe, I think he's the most vulnerable. An outed showmance and a three-way alliance with two of the guys on the Villains tribe is going to put a major target on his back, especially from females like Candice. If something crazy happens on this tribe, it'll be JT who pays the price.
But I don't think that'll happen. There will be talk, but it won't amount to anything substantial. No, it's the girls who are in trouble, particularly those without solid ties to one of the men. Cirie especially is in a bad spot. People are gunning for her. Her only chance is to get everyone paranoid about the power all the alpha males wield, but she doesn't have the numbers to make something come of that. She might have no problem getting Candice (and maybe even Steph) on board, but Sugar's going to protect the boys and Amanda's not going to leave James' side. So she'll have to lay low, and unfortunately, I think that's going to be tough. She could have easily done it in Exile Island, and I think she could have pulled it off in Micronesia. But by this point, her reputation is just too great. She's a major candidate to be the first boot from her tribe. I have hope that she'll have something up her sleeve, but realistically, it can't be expected.
Candice is a similar position, but without the enormous target on her back. Unlike Cirie, Candice should actually be able to coast. Put her fear of the boys' club on the back burner until she hits a stage of the game where she can actually do something about it. If she strikes early, all she's going to accomplish is getting herself slotted for elimination above Cirie, who will be smart enough to let Candice sink. No, Candice has a much better chance if she instead keeps the pressure on the Micronesia clique. Cirie's an obvious target, but there's a lot of contention brewing around the James/Amanda/Parvati trio, and that's the group Candice needs to ensure is in the spotlight if she wants to be able to slide through to a shuffle.
And I think it'll be easy enough to pull off. Most of the Heroes' vendettas can be postponed until they get a chance to go head-to-head with the villains. But the presence of the Micronesia kids is an issue that can be dealt with right from the get-go, and I think it's the most pressing item on the agenda after Cirie's eviction. Amanda carries some perception of "threat" despite the fact that she's not much of a proactive player, and it'll be easy to rally votes against her. James will do his damnedest to protect her, but how much influence does he really have? With the strong wills of Tom and Colby calling the shots, James is going to be able to persuade them to keep Amanda in the game. James isn't a good enough player to cut ties and let her drop, so I think he'll damage his own game quite a bit when Amanda leaves, but leave she will. Like Candice and Cirie, her best chances lie in getting things turned around on some of the men, but Amanda doesn't have the foresight to make that happen, and she'll blindly stick by the challenge strength until the Heroes attend their second TC.
If things progress beyond that point, it's hard to say what might happen. Sugar has a ton of enemies and people who despise her enough to pursue her elimination, but all of them are on the other tribe. Until they're combined, she doesn't have too much to worry about. Tom had no problem keeping challenge threats in Palau, Colby guns for strategic threats over physical prowess, and James doesn't have any physical threats to be concerned with in the first place, so I don't see the men turning on each other. Which sucks for Candice, because it only makes it harder and harder for her to bide time with each consecutive vote. Pushing for a play early on is almost guaranteed to backfire, but the longer she lasts and the more dire her situation becomes, the more inclined she'll have to become to putting her neck on the line for a big payoff. Ultimately, some crack will surface and she'll have to try to make the most of that. It's difficult to tell where it'll happen, be it in James' alienation after Amanda's boot, fear of the JT/Sugar coupling, or Tom's status as an amazing player, but she'll need to try and exploit it. As much as I'd like to give the women benefit of the doubt (especially since we have possibly the strongest female cast of all time here), it's a tough group to break and I don't see the boys falling apart early in the game. They're just not aggressive enough (or stupid enough) to start taking out the shields who are protecting them.
Fortunately for the women of the Heroes tribe, I think the Villains tribe is going to be in much worse shape, challenge-wise. Whereas Heroes' men consist of challenge beasts (including two of the strongest challenge competitors of all time in Tom and Colby) and their women minus Cirie are incredibly tough in the physical department, the Villains are simply little more than above-average. Cirie is the sole liability for the Heroes (and likely their first boot). The combination of Courtney and Sandra, however, is going to hold back the Villains a lot more. And while they have some strong competitors in Tyson, Russell, and Rob, they don't have the brute force to go along with their physical agility, and everyone else on the tribe is simply unimpressive. So I very much expect that the Villains are going to be seeing a lot more voting than the Heroes, at least until a swap occurs.
So who's the immediate target over there? A lot of people seem to have it out for Parvati. Either they're afraid of her specifically or they're afraid of her connection to James and Amanda. And that's going to present her with an immediate uphill battle, especially considering she doesn't have that much to offer in tribal Immunity Challenges. Her one saving grace might come in the form of Russell, who seems to be trying a strategy similar to his play the first time he competed in Samoa. I fully expect him to take Parvati and Danielle under his wing, both aggressive, seductive, but not too book-smart girls who I see Russell getting along with. He went for the southern belles last time around, but those aren't to be found on this tribe, so he'll go for the next best thing. Russell says he wants to play follower to Rob, and Rob will be glad to have him (especially since nobody will see Russell as an uber threat right off the bat). I think the loathing of the Coach/Tyson duo will be too much for Russell to pass up, and just like he wanted to drag Ben as far as he could in Samoa, he'll look to do the same with that pair.
Which leaves a few people on the outs of these (Russell-centric) dynamics. I think Jerri's too old for Russell to view as a plaything, but I think she's smart enough to keep her mouth shut when it comes to challenging him. As much as Jerri would like to be HBIC, she never seems to piss off men as much as make the women jealous. As long as she gets along with someone, be it Rob or Parvati or Danielle, she has a bit of safety. Even if she never forms solid relationships, she can fly UTR for a little bit. In a way, the same goes for Randy. He's antagonistic and can be quite the curmudgeon, but he knows when to play nice and shut up. He seems content to follow the top dogs, and that's going to pay off well, especially if someone like Rob or Russell thinks they can use him.
It's Sandra and Courtney who are going to have a much harder time of it, especially since the spotlight will be on them right from the get-go for their lack of challenge strength. I can't see either of them taking kindly to Russell's scheming, Rob's dictatorial strategizing, or Coach's delusions. And I can't see either of them keeping quiet about it. Question is, who's going to piss off more people faster? I think here is where Sandra benefits from a little age and wisdom. She's still a fiery Latina who's going to give the douchebag men a piece of her mind, but I do think she might find at least one relationship somewhere in there to cling to. Courtney, however, is going to have nothing. Just like Shii Ann's snark got her ostracized by the majority in the first All-Stars, Courtney's wisecracks are going to make her no friends amongst this crowd, and I can't see her lasting past the first vote. Unless Sandra really screws up and attempts to take charge, Courtney's in too much danger to have a chance at escaping the boot.
If both of my two leading ladies are kicked out and the Villains are still facing Tribal, the schemers and plotters on the tribe are going to start cutting throats (and if they get to that point, I think that would end up being their downfall as a whole). Rob's not going to be able to sit pretty while other alpha males are calling shots, Russell's not going to be able to stomach other strategists pulling all the strings, and I think Tyson's going to be mighty paranoid about power players having the potential to blindside him once again, simply by keeping more of the worthless players in their back pocket. So the knives will come out. And honestly, I think Rob (and his reputation) might be the first one to pay the price. If Russell snatches up a couple of female followers and Tyson keeps Coach close, Rob's going to find himself without true friends and with a legacy for domination. He's the only villain (that they know of) who truly succeeded in his reign of horror, and that's going to make him the most intimidating one. With everyone biting at the bit to get him out and a tribe full of players who are willing to do the dastardly, he'll be in danger and lack the protection needed to escape from it.
Eventually, of course, a shuffle will come, a twist will occur, a swap will go down. Things will be shaken up, and it's always hard to say how they'll affect the outcome. But a few things seem clear even after the initial divisions are no more. First of all, JT & Sugar are going to have to start dodging bullets once they end up facing the Villains. JT's already got a target on his back as a likable winner, but people want Sugar out bad and his relationship with her is not going to help him. They're not Romber 2.0, I'll guarantee you that.
Tom and Colby will get a lot of attention as Survivor's golden boys. James and Rupert are threats in one sense, but they're threats that the cast knows they can deal with at any point down the road. Tom and Colby are threats in every sense, and I don't think there's anyone who's not afraid of them. Colby and Jerri will never be able to trust each other enough to work together, and that will kill them if they end up on the same tribe. Tom has one "solid" ally in Stephenie, but she'll turn on him if she thinks she needs to. The two of them are going to have to play very powerful games if they want to make it deep. With all the challenge strength in this cast, neither Tom nor Colby are going to be able to make pleas that rely solely on their physical dominance. At the end of the day, I can't see them going too far, but I wish them the best.
Jerri, Candice, Stephenie, Danielle, and Parvati will all be seen as weak players to drag, all to varying degrees. For Jerri, her success will depend on Colby and whether she can find a solid relationship with anyone else. If Colby guns for her, he could succeed in destroying her chances. But even if she outlasts him, she's going to need a strong ally she can trust, because I don't think the women are ever going to have the numbers to dominate as a group. Candice is similar to Jerri, but without the Colby complication. If she can get someone like Russell to pull her in, she'll be in a fantastic position, set to pull a Natalie. Stephenie is too strong-willed to last in this group, and she won't be content taking orders from other players. That will do her in. I don't see why there would be a rush to boot her, but I can see justification being found for voting her out, and I can see her coming up with no real way to defend herself. Danielle and Parvati need to cling to Russell for as long as they can. Danielle's not the most socially adept person and a lot of her LA connections are going to be cut very quickly. She can't afford to play her own strong, individual game, not until much of it has progressed. If she ever gets disconnected from her allies, she needs to work to make new ones and stay flexible. The same goes for Parvati, except the target on her back is much bigger so she's much more vulnerable. Again, she needs to stick by Russell and use his game against him only when things get down to the wire. She can't use her pre-existing relationship with James because it'll only get more votes stacked against her (and I'm not sure James would trust her entirely anyway).
Randy and Rupert are like the male versions of the above women. They need to play UTR games and I think they both have it in them to do so. I could see either one of them (or both of them) going far, much the way Rupert did in ASS. They key lies in not threatening anyone and finding people who want to use them as numbers. If they can do that, they have the edge over the aforementioned women simply because they, you know, have that Y chromosome. Winning a jury vote isn't an issue they really have to worry about too much, it's about not letting anyone become afraid of them. I don't think there's enough room for both of them to truly go far, but mark my words, at least one of them will.
Coach and Tyson are an interesting duo, and I really have no idea how things are going to go for them. I don't think any of the men will have a real problem dragging Coach, but if some of the women have influence and get fed up, that could seal his fate. He's not threatening, but he's also not that useful. Ultimately, Russell will drag him a ways and then dump him once he becomes unmanageable. At the very least, Coach's chances look better than Tyson's, who should be considered a much bigger threat. The kid's strong in challenges and eager to kick ass. He'll need to dial it back if he wants to find safety. Unfortunately, I don't think he's capable of that. Even before Coach, the power players will be looking to get rid of him.
So as I see it, the following people are going to likely face early departures:
Courtney, Sandra, Cirie, Amanda, Rob
With some of these people filling out the rest of the pre-merge boots:
Stephenie, Sugar, JT, James, Colby, Tom
Once the merge hits, these players are going to start dropping like flies:
Jerri, Tyson, Coach, Candice
Leaving us with an end game that looks something like this:
Randy, Rupert, Parvati, Danielle, Russell
I think I'm gonna pray the exact opposite happens. As it stands, I'm pretty much assuming this plays out a lot like Samoa, with Russell calling the shots and following the same exact strategy of carrying do-nothings to the end, with a mixture of ASS where the likable threats leave before the merge and the former power players fall apart once that merge hits.
