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I personally hope Marty loses for the sake of laughing :).

The list posted before about potential nominees is just ALL wrong.

Definitely OUT for Best Picture: Flags of our Fathers. This movie has been panned and forgotten. Bye bye. Also, to a lesser extent, World Trade Center. I can see Paramount campaigning hard, but the ONLY nom I see for it is Gyllenhaal.

Leading actor: The Departed is campaigning all its actors supporting. Granted, they might not all go there, but they're fighting for mainly Leo & Jack there. Leo's more likely to go lead for Blood Diamond. And are you forgetting Peter O'Toole? If anyone actually sees his movie, he's a potential nominee. He's gotten quite a lot of buzz. Though I despise the whole idea of the movie- the Borat guy's gotten a lot of buzz too.

Leading actress: Annette Bening is OUT. Her movie sucked. And, personally, she sucks too. Streep also might go supporting... but I think it'd be smarter to campaign her as lead, since the supporting races are pretty tight this year. Where is Dench and Dunst though? Dunst has actually got a lot of supporters, whereas the academy just adores Dench.

Supporting actor: Not much objection here. Though I think Earle Haley's got a bigger shot. I also hear that McAvoy and Sheen are more "lead" roles- but the academy sometimes ignores that fact (Connelly & A Beautiful Mind).

Supporting actress: This is my biggest problem... Toni fucking Collette? Abigail Breslin LEADING THE PACK? Jennifer Hudson fourth? Sandra fucking Bullock? And sorry, but Shareeka Epps ain't got no chance. Where are Kikuchi, Barraza, and Gyllenhaal? And the possibility of Streep? Sharon Stone? Hell, Demi Moore's got a chance over Bullock + Collette.


As for the documentaries- I'm seeing Deliver Us From Evil or An Inconvenient Truth taking that home. Honestly, they're the only ones I've even heard about and looking a few of them up, apparently the only ones that were actually good.