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I think John's overly confident about Frank's vote. Sure, he's got a shot at it, but I don't see how it is in the bag. Frank's not going to vote based upon who he dislikes least. Frank operates very much in black and white terms. Either you deserve his respect or you don't, and I don't think he respects either finalist all that much, putting them on equal ground from that aspect. In the end, Frank will listen to the arguments and go with his gut instinct, which makes him very much a tossup vote. If John has him as a sure thing, he doesn't understand the man at all.

I do think John has to be favored for Colleen's vote, but the approach he's taking to her could cost him it. Colleen won't appreciate being "handled" - if she thinks John is trying to manipulate her, she could well decide to go the other way. What worked to "handle" her within the pressures of the game may not fare so well with her getting the chance to refresh herself and observe. He may be best off not pushing too hard for her vote since he'd probably get it in a vacuum. Ironically, his decision to emphasize how much he wants to win could strike a discordant note with the way he dealt with Colleen in the game.

Gretchen is a hypocrite, but she's not really aware of her hypocrisy. She's not Tina, who would certainly look at how she comes off in what she says and does. Much like Frank, she'll end up voting based upon how she feels at the moment when she makes the decision. All that said, I think John may have an advantage just because Gretchen can relate to his emotional side whereas Vee comes off as coolly analytical. That said, if John flashes too hotly with his emotion such as if he loses his temper or shows a bit of his mean streak, it likely will backfire.

Of the other votes, I don't think there's much likelihood of variance. Kathy will vote for John - she'd rationalize a vote for him even if he gives the all time worst jury performance ever. Tina will vote for Vee, and she'll use her forum to promote the game that Vee played (and perhaps defuse the former winner argument). Rob won't vote for John though he may well try to make him think he's got a shot at it before pulling the rug out. Alicia could vote for John, but it would take a total meltdown in their confrontation in order for her to do so - otherwise she's got too much pride to back off from her exit pronouncement that she's voting for Vee.