Winner Analysis

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Kitty Pryde1		#2861	[-]
Posts: 4095 (05/13/08 10:27 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah, but in terms of non-strategic, non-challenge luck (which affects everyone), Parvati is one of the luckiest winners ever. Tina was lucky that Michael fell in the fire, but if he hadn't, who's to say that they wouldn't have won immunity anyway, and who's to say Tina wouldn't have lasted a long time with the Kucha tribe, given her persuasive personality. Vecepia got lucky that Paschal picked the purple rock, thus giving her a chance at the the only beatable opponent in the final 4. Still, that was one instance of luck, and at that point, Neleh was supposedly the toughest player to beat. Yul had several twists work in his favor while screwing over a tribe of 8. But Parvati is probably the luckiest winner ever, since unlike those others, she was actually a real target when her luck came. Had it not been for Fairplay's altercation with Danny Bonaduce, he wouldn't have injured his mouth and he wouldn't have been on painkillers going into the show. If it hadn't been for the pain, he wouldn't have asked to quit, and he would've teamed up with JAYE to take out Parvati on day 3. Jonathan's elimination meant that the main person keeping Alexis/Natalie/Eliza together was gone, allowing for Alexis/Natalie to be scooped up by Parvati. Chet's injury meant that Parvati was able to keep her allies in the game while neutralizing a pair of strong enemies in Ami and Tracy. James' elimination also may very well have caused the proposed final 3 to turn to a final 2, just to use all the challenges. This kept Parvati from splitting votes with Cirie and handing the win to Amanda. Now granted, that would've sucked ass, but still, she was lucky because of it.
ShanesThinkingSeat		#2862	[-]
Posts: 313 (05/13/08 10:37 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	How dare Bonaduce...he's why Parvati won...nah, not really, but yeah that's true I guess...I didn't really look into JFP's quit, but didn't he leave due to missing his family and wanting to ensure they were okay?
Kitty Pryde1		#2863	[-]
Posts: 4096 (05/13/08 10:55 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	That's what they said. But apparently he was just in so much pain from his injury that he couldn't deal with it out there. It would explain why he would want to go home to meet his family when he KNEW that he wouldn't be flown back to the states until the game was over.
ShanesThinkingSeat		#2864	[-]
Posts: 315 (05/13/08 11:02 AM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Good point. He should've known he wouldn't have had contact with them (or maybe phone call), so that may actually be the case.
unduli clone		#2865	[-]
Posts: 2791 (05/13/08 12:42 PM) Registered User Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	You seriously think Parv would've gone if JFP didn't quit? Cirie would've voted with the couples, and JFP wouldn't force a tie.
ShanesThinkingSeat		#2866	[-]
Posts: 317 (05/13/08 1:07 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think he would have, and you never know what Cirie would've done. Maybe 6 days prior she had different emotions. I think Parv and Eliza would've been toast pre-swap if not for JFP quitting.
RavuRules		#2867	[-]
Posts: 1636 (05/13/08 1:09 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah, but in terms of non-strategic, non-challenge luck (which affects everyone), Parvati is one of the luckiest winners ever. Not really. You always neglect the competitive level of your competition, and that factor makes a huge difference. Parvati had a whole alliance gunning after her from day 1 based on prior reputation. In other words, she had the same problem as the big names of All-Stars, except she actually had the skills to overcome that thanks to her incredible social game. So yeah, if she had luck from people quitting or injuries, it is good luck, but it's mitigated by the immense bad luck she had in the 1st place of being targeted hardcore. It's the same as people calling Amber "lucky" for surviving Mogo-Mogo, or Yul for having the bottle twist help him after the mutiny already screwed him. It's easy to pick out isolated events and point out the good luck. Everything occurs in a larger context Tina was lucky that Michael fell in the fire, but if he hadn't, who's to say that they wouldn't have won immunity anyway, and who's to say Tina wouldn't have lasted a long time with the Kucha tribe, given her persuasive personality. I would expect you'd give such leeway to other winners then, but it's quite clear you don't. I actually agree that Tina might not be doomed if Kucha secured numbers. However, I also feel the same about Parvati and others who you think managed to win based on immense luck Vecepia got lucky that Paschal picked the purple rock, thus giving her a chance at the the only beatable opponent in the final 4. Still, that was one instance of luck, and at that point, Neleh was supposedly the toughest player to beat. Vecepia's biggest luck was that she was playing against the right combination of players who'd implode and further her UTR game. People like Rob and Sean essentially fell on the sword for her Yul had several twists work in his favor while screwing over a tribe of 8. But Parvati is probably the luckiest winner ever, since unlike those others, she was actually a real target when her luck came. Because of reputation. If you give all your favorites from All-Stars a bye for the reputation excuse, then you obviously need to be consistent and do the same for all the parallel situations. Despite the mid-card placement, Parvati was clearly recognized and actively gunned down for her social performance in Cook Islands as a competitive threat which is grip of BAD LUCK Had it not been for Fairplay's altercation with Danny Bonaduce, he wouldn't have injured his mouth and he wouldn't have been on painkillers going into the show. If it hadn't been for the pain, he wouldn't have asked to quit, and he would've teamed up with JAYE to take out Parvati on day 3. Jonathan's elimination meant that the main person keeping Alexis/Natalie/Eliza together was gone, allowing for Alexis/Natalie to be scooped up by Parvati. True. Still, considering that she wouldn't have been targeted like at all in a normal season, then we can somewhat safely speculate and assume that she would've done about the same in a normal situation Chet's injury meant that Parvati was able to keep her allies in the game while neutralizing a pair of strong enemies in Ami and Tracy. James' elimination also may very well have caused the proposed final 3 to turn to a final 2, just to use all the challenges. This kept Parvati from splitting votes with Cirie and handing the win to Amanda. Now granted, that would've sucked ass, but still, she was lucky because of it. The James causing F2 theory is possible but for now it remains speculation. If anyone is lucky or unlucky for F2 or F3, then we must use that criteria against all the winners, and in some cases that simply can't be done
Kitty Pryde1		#2868	[-]
Posts: 4099 (05/13/08 1:35 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The only reason that Cirie joined the couples was because Yau-Man fucked up and tried to send Jonathan to Exile Island after Cirie told him all the clues to the idol's location. Prior to the first exiling, Cirie would've been all for joining JAYE. Also, Ravu, it's a lame double standard that you consider Parvati a great player for being targetted right off the bat by someone who hated her guts and surviving solely due to the luck of Fairplay's quit and her tribe not going to a second TC until the third episode, yet Tina's a horrible winner because she had absolutely no luck in that she was stuck with someone who hated her guts, someone who wanted to take out the winners, and due to the size of the tribe, those two people only needed one more player to force a tie. Tina didn't have someone to fall on their sword like Fairplay did. Where's HER respect? You just assume there's this magical alliance on day 1 and she had to do nothing. How is that different from Parvati's magical couples' alliance? Seriously, you need to apply the same criteria to all the winners, or just admit that you're ranking based on how much you liked the season, because there's no other reason to rank the two luckiest winners as high as you do, other than your love of Cook Islands.
GrenadeJumper85	ag	#2869	[-]
Posts: 4768 (05/13/08 1:53 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	think he would have, and you never know what Cirie would've done. Maybe 6 days prior she had different emotions. Cirie was going with the couples either way. Read her post show interview at Reality TV news. It also didn't help that Yau-man tried to scerw her over.
RavuRules		#2870	[-]
Posts: 1637 (05/13/08 2:05 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	The only reason that Cirie joined the couples was because Yau-Man fucked up and tried to send Jonathan to Exile Island after Cirie told him all the clues to the idol's location. Prior to the first exiling, Cirie would've been all for joining JAYE. I'm aware of that. That'd be good luck for Parvati that helped mitigate the JAYE alliance targeting her in the 1st place for prior reputation Also, Ravu, it's a lame double standard that you consider Parvati a great player for being targetted right off the bat by someone who hated her guts and surviving solely due to the luck of Fairplay's quit and her tribe not going to a second TC until the third episode, yet Tina's a horrible winner because she had absolutely no luck in that she was stuck with someone who hated her guts, someone who wanted to take out the winners, and due to the size of the tribe, those two people only needed one more player to force a tie. Double standard?! I have to laugh at that one KP. You're 1 of the ones who've been pushing the Past Reputation excuse for ages now and now when it's applicable to Parvati who you're known to dislike, you're suddenly completely willing to overlook it as a luck factor and waive it? Tina didn't have someone to fall on their sword like Fairplay did. Where's HER respect? I've ALREADY acknowledged she had the worst luck of all the returnees. I'm sorry you didn't recognize that, when I put that in writing here in this very thread. The problem is that she's knocked a lot for Outback as well, not just All-Stars. All-Stars was merely the confirmation. You keep thinking I knocked her solely for All-Stars, and that simply isn't the case You just assume there's this magical alliance on day 1 and she had to do nothing. How is that different from Parvati's magical couples' alliance? Seriously, you need to apply the same criteria to all the winners, or just admit that you're ranking based on how much you liked the season, because there's no other reason to rank the two luckiest winners as high as you do, other than your love of Cook Islands. I'll break this down for you since I know you're having trouble grasping the numbers: Tina on ASS - Saboga 1. Jenna L. = Hardcore targeted Tina/Ethan for past reputation. Bad luck enemy 2. Jerri = Likely wanted Tina gone because she acknowledge that Tina "didn't like her". Enemy due to bad luck from prior relationship 3. Rupert = Neutral party looking for a loyal ally. Was swayed by the Jenna/Jerri alliance 4. Rudy = Neutral party looking for a loyal ally. Did what Rupert wanted to do 5. Ethan = In-pocket ally. Fellow Favorite victim. Jenna Lewis flat out told him she didn't want him around making him Tina's puppet Parvati on Micronesia - Malakal 1. Jonathan = Instant enemy due to reputation and past relationship. Despite trying to mend faces with him, Jon couldn't overlook her social game and gunned after her hardcore. Bad luck 2. Eliza = Felt threatened with the potential of the Couples Alliance early on, and despite Parvati not necessarily wanting to play that kind of game, was targeted for that Scapegoat justification anyways 3. Yau-Man = Instant enemy due to his alliance with Jonathan. Bad luck 4. Ami = Instant enemy due to her alliance with JAYE. Bad luck 5. Fairplay = Neutral party who was trying to play both sides of the alliances that were forming 6. Cirie = Neutral party who was feeling things out at first. As we saw in clips and on the show, Parvati had been socializing with her properly as Tina should've with her tribemates back on ASS 7. Amanda = Forged a sister bond with her almost instantly with no prior relationship. Partly social game and skill on Parvati's part and good luck from Ozzy who she respected 8. James = Flirted her way into making him sacrifice his game and other people he respected like Yau-Man for her. Social game and skill on Parvati's part and good luck from Ozzy who he respected 9. Ozzy = Parvati's #1 good luck factor Ozzy. On good terms since Cook Islands where he thought of her as a sister. As a loyalist, this was a huge instant and strong capable ally that she had Tina Luck 2/5 Enemies = 40% bad luck 2/5 Neutrals = 40% opportunity decided by skill 1/5 Allies = 20% good luck Parvati Initial Luck 1/9 Enemies = 11% bad luck 7/9 Neutrals = 78% opportunity decided by skill 1/9 Allies = 11% good luck Jonathan and Ozzy became the pivots of this initial situation. The war against Parvati was essentially a long-term war between Jonathan and Ozzy to acquire power. Ozzy and Parvati recruited neutrals James/Amanda and eventually Cirie. Fairplay was courted as well, although in post-game interviews he likely would've sided with Ami/Eliza. Jonathan recruited neutrals Ami, Eliza, and Yau-Man to his side while also courting neutrals Fairplay and Cirie. So then we have the following luck factors: Parvati Initial Luck 4/9 Enemies = 44% bad luck 2/9 Neutrals = 22% opportunity decided by skill 3/9 Allies = 33% good luck In short, her bad luck exceeded Tina's in the early game, although obviously her good luck was enough to mitigate her bad luck so she could survive and go on to win the game. The problem was that her #1 source of bad luck--Jonathan was a huge power player in his own right, and helped secure the rest of the 44% bad luck against Parvati that she probably wouldn't have had right from the start in a normal situation. At worst, maybe by socializing too much it got Eliza to want to gun after her. But for the most part, I think it's safe to say the source of Parvati's early game woes came from past reputation and relationships just like Tina and the other Favorites of ASS. So blasting her for having good luck to counteract that immense bad luck doesn't make a whole lot of sense The difference is that while Parvati was able to secure numbers and allies with neutrals James, Amanda, and Cirie, Tina was unable to do the same with Rupert and Rudy allowing Jenna/Jerri to beat her to the punch. Understandable and I've given her leeway since her bad luck exceeded her good luck. However, it's quite clear Tina doesn't have the social game of Parvati. Basically, no one does. I think Parvati may have the #1 social game of all the Survivor players ever. It's not really a knock on Tina, but a testament to Parvati's abilities
Kitty Pryde1		#2871	[-]
Posts: 4105 (05/13/08 2:25 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	No, there is no difference. Had Fairplay not quit, it would've been a 6-4 vote against Parvati at the first tribal council, end of story. She would've gone out due to her enemies just like Tina. Fairplay's quit allowed time for Yau-Man to screw up and send Cirie over to Parvati's side. Also, if she was a better player, she wouldn't have been targetted, necessarily, by Jonathan's allies, like she was. She could've at least tried to work with Eliza and Ami and Yau-Man.
Katy Carney		#2872	[-]
Posts: 1163 (05/13/08 2:30 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	They had pregame alliances, and Jonathan was out to get her from the start. That has nothing to do with the game she played. That's circumstantial. Bad luck. The game she played won her the money.
Kitty Pryde1		#2873	[-]
Posts: 4106 (05/13/08 2:34 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Also, JAYE was only really formed as a reaction to JAPO forming, which is Parvati's own fault for basically isolating half of her tribe. Another difference is that while Parvati had five other people to work with, Tina only had two (not counting initial enemies and allies). In order just to avoid a tie, Tina needed to secure BOTH of those allies. Parvati, on the other hand, needed two of five, which was far more probably, especially since she also had more allies to help her out. Another big difference is that Tina had three days to make impressions, while Parvati had nine days before she even had to worry about tribal council again, giving her ample time to work her magic, whereas she wouldn't have had that time had Fairplay quit. And as for your assertion that Tina's game in Australia was bad, you have never, not even once, listed anything that warrants her a last place on your list, other than anti-conformity bias and possibly a hatred of early seasons.
ShanesThinkingSeat		#2874	[-]
Posts: 318 (05/13/08 2:58 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Best point when bringing up the overratedness of Tina: She may well have been toast if Mike didn't fall in the fire. Even if he didn't, Kucha (if I recall correctly) won the Ep 6 reward and was ready to steamroll Ogakor, and if Kucha went to TC, they may well have voted out Jeff anyway. Point is, Kucha would've won the tiebreaker, and thus, the game. Tina had the MOST luck of any player who has won in that one incident. However, aside from that, everything that she could control, she did, and that's why she's arguably the greatest female winner to date. Parvati is close, although I think she lucked her way out of the first episode due to JFP's quit.
RavuRules		#2875	[-]
Posts: 1638 (05/13/08 3:40 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	No, there is no difference. Had Fairplay not quit, it would've been a 6-4 vote against Parvati at the first tribal council, end of story. Speculation. I mean, if we're gonna go ahead and base things on trends and what-ifs, then I suppose we should just say Tina got lucky that Mike fell in the fire hmm? That my friend is "bias" She would've gone out due to her enemies just like Tina. Fairplay's quit allowed time for Yau-Man to screw up and send Cirie over to Parvati's side. Even if we all assume that's true (and obviously we don't know what would've really happened), what's your point? We all know that if you have huge amounts of bad luck, no matter how good you are, you're screwed Also, if she was a better player, she wouldn't have been targetted, necessarily, by Jonathan's allies, like she was. She could've at least tried to work with Eliza and Ami and Yau-Man. That of course is something to be noted as I have. However, given that we don't know what the exact post-game relationships of everybody is, she gets some leeway there. I do think I heard somewhere that it was probable that Jonathan and Eliza would ally up, and obviously Ami would fall in that camp as a result. What is impressive is that Parvati managed to secure the 2 neutral parties, James and Amanda who were fresh and new veterans who didn't have time to be worked over post-game and made prospective allies in case of All-Stars 2. Overall, the same criticisms you apply to Parvati I'd expect you to apply to Tina, but you clearly don't. Unless you'd like to explain to me yourself how you felt Tina should've worked over Rupert and Rudy with her superior social abilities and lost them...to Jenna...and Jerri Also, JAYE was only really formed as a reaction to JAPO forming, which is Parvati's own fault for basically isolating half of her tribe. When did we see Parvati isolating half the tribe? I don't remember any confessionals about Parvati ignoring the others. In terms of the JAYE reacting to JAPO forming, that is not supported by the edit, although it may be true. In the edit, there was no JAPO alliance, and JAYE formed sort of as an excuse and justification. 1 of the easiest ways to form an alliance without looking too sneaky and too much of a gamer is to make yourself a victim. In this case, using the fear of a potential alliance, JAYE was formed, when in reality, they all probably wanted to align anyways. Based on the edit, JAPO actually formed in reaction to JAYE Another difference is that while Parvati had five other people to work with, Tina only had two (not counting initial enemies and allies). In order just to avoid a tie, Tina needed to secure BOTH of those allies. Parvati, on the other hand, needed two of five, which was far more probably, especially since she also had more allies to help her out. Yeah, but what you're neglecting is Parvati secured those allies with skill. She didn't have them with instant luck. Ozzy yes. James and Amanda were acquired allies with her social game. She generated a counter alliance to protect herself out of thin air which is definitely not something just anybody can do. At least, Tina proved she couldn't in certain situations Another big difference is that Tina had three days to make impressions, while Parvati had nine days before she even had to worry about tribal council again, giving her ample time to work her magic, whereas she wouldn't have had that time had Fairplay quit. We really don't know what would've happened. We can speculate based on what people say in post-game interviews, but when it's not real-time, it's just different. We have to go with what we know, not what-if situations strategically brought up to support KP's favorites And as for your assertion that Tina's game in Australia was bad, you have never, not even once, listed anything that warrants her a last place on your list, other than anti-conformity bias and possibly a hatred of early seasons. Wait wait wait. When did I say her game in Australia was bad? Look, if you're not going to actually read what I write and understand my POV, there's no point in discussing this KP. Clearly, because you like to campaign for certain people and seasons you think everyone does that. I would appreciate if you'd stop projecting your insecurities onto me Best point when bringing up the overratedness of Tina: She may well have been toast if Mike didn't fall in the fire. Even if he didn't, Kucha (if I recall correctly) won the Ep 6 reward and was ready to steamroll Ogakor, and if Kucha went to TC, they may well have voted out Jeff anyway. Point is, Kucha would've won the tiebreaker, and thus, the game. Tina had the MOST luck of any player who has won in that one incident. However, aside from that, everything that she could control, she did, and that's why she's arguably the greatest female winner to date. Parvati is close, although I think she lucked her way out of the first episode due to JFP's quit. It's not the control that impresses me. It's the "how" and the "why" that earned the control. With enough luck or gameplay that is tailored to earning control (but not necessarily winning jury votes), anyone can become the overt game controller. We've seen that with Katie, Cassandra, Dreamz, Boston Rob, etc.
ShanesThinkingSeat		#2876	[-]
Posts: 325 (05/13/08 3:50 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Are you referring to Parvati or Tina?
RavuRules		#2877	[-]
Posts: 1639 (05/13/08 3:53 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Everyone including Parvati and Tina. How does someone earn their control? Luck? Skill? Magical alliances? Natural affinities? Flirtation? That's what I'm basing the rankings around. If you base it strictly on control, that can easily favor whoever was luckiest in a season. That's 1 of the reasons I'm not necessarily as impressed with Heidik as some others or even Earl's. It's another reason why someone who lacked control for so much of the game like Chris and Danni have high spots on my ranking
ShanesThinkingSeat		#2878	[-]
Posts: 327 (05/13/08 4:09 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I don't think Danni deserves a high ranking, as she made some pretty bad errors pre-merge, resulting in her not having the numbers post-merge. I can agree on Chris, though.
RavuRules		#2879	[-]
Posts: 1640 (05/13/08 4:23 PM) Registered user Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Can you elaborate? I'd assume that you're talking about the fact that she cut Blake out which facilitated her new tribe's demise and didn't manage Judd/Cindy well enough to prevent them from jumping ship on her and her original tribe pre-swap. Again, I'm looking for how control is gained. So even if she lost control mid-game, she did earn enough back at the end via Rafe. I'm open to discussing this though and hearing your insights
Kitty Pryde1		#2880	[-]
Posts: 4109 (05/13/08 4:32 PM) Reply Quote More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	That's fucking bullshit and you know it. Since this thread began, you've pretty much downplayed Tina and Richard as being bad winners because of how they were up against dumb players. Nevermind the fact that you rank Yul at number 1 and find bullshit reasons as to why the other players in Cook Islands weren't dumb. Now, Richard's case might be true because of the fact that the game was new, but you complete deny Tina of any credit, despite the fact that she remains, to this day, the only "old" woman to win Survivor. You say she had a magical alliance on day 1, which so many other winners got, yet Tina had absolutely nothing in common with 3/4 of the other members of that alliance. You neglect the fact that she saw she was on the bottom of the totem pole, so she changed the game around by teaming up with Keith and Colby to take out Mitchell while still holding power over Jerri and Amber. You say that Tina was lucky for Skupin falling into the fire. Fine. I say that Parvati's game was not as flawless as you like to believe, especially since there were MORE non-strategic moments in which Parvati got lucky than Tina did, any one of which could've ended Parvati's game had they not happened. It all comes back to you having an anti-early season bias, which would explain why you seem to hate Tina so much and praise Amber for making a laughing stock of the show during the early goings. And before you even try to say that bullshit about how I'm projecting on you, know this: Australia is just barely in my top 10, and in fact, after Micronesia, I think it may have dropped out. I thought it was a very bland season, and honestly, I think that the most entertaining seasons have been post-ASS. Basically, you can equate my getting pissed off and calling you out on your bias to you calling people racist for thinking Cook Islands was a boring and shitty season.

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