| Started By | Comment | ||
|---|---|---|---|
 RavuRules |
Re: RE: | ||
|
Posts: 1765 (04/04/07 4:39 PM) Registered user |
Quote: Hey, I'm not trying to ignore facts. I can't be expected to think of everything right? That's why I said just let me know if I'm missing info. I'll adjust the original scheme as I get more facts |
||
|
Pineapple 81 |
Re: RE: | ||
|
Posts: 37 (04/04/07 4:40 PM) Registered user |
 I liked your list. |
||
|
mfull1991 |
Re: RE: | ||
|
Posts: 184 (04/04/07 4:43 PM) Registered user |
I wish I could pay attention long enough to make a list like that.
|
||
|
RavuRules |
Re: RE: | ||
|
Posts: 1765 (04/04/07 4:44 PM) Registered user |
Quote: Well, it's not the entertaining factor that I found strategic, although that was a bonus. First off, introducing chaos into any scheme can be strategic in and of itself. Sometimes, it causes unplannable chain reactions. Chill Town did this a lot in BB7. But I gave her a B for strategy, because there was some thought to it more than just "As long as it's not me". Unless I'm giving her too much credit. A big strategic move that comes to mind was choosing to boot Tijuana over Burton. Fairplay and Burton had just screwed Rupert over, and she could easily have gotten emotional and gone after Burton. However, she worked together with Fairplay to boot Tijuana, while also having Burton as a secondary target in case things didn't work out. So despite being caught outside the last vote, she single-handedly saved herself and Christa from even being targeted. Also, booting Tijuana over Burton was more strategic, since Burton was an obvious threat, while Tijuana could've jacked her UTR role. As a result, she was able to still work with the ladies later on, because she'd kept Burton in the game Quote: You're right about that one. That shouldn't be under good luck, since that was his strategy. I think I originally meant something else. I originally had this post on a word document and then transferred it to this, but the margins were all messed up Edit: Okay, I figured out what I meant by that. It's definitely strategy that Brian allied with Clay as his F2 goat. The luck part is that Clay WANTED to go with Brian, because of an interpersonal bond that likely goes beyond the game Quote: Oooh! Right again. Finally, someone who's giving me actual input. Thanks. I know I mentioned her breakdown somewhere, but I didn't include that in the luck section Quote: Don't take the "grades" too seriously. That was to compare people within their own season, not compare people from season to season. It was more my own way to clarify the contestants skills. I actually thought Amber was strong on challenges, but I think I tried to reserve C's for people who got at least 2 individual immunities. Vecepia won challenges at critical moments, whereas Amber didn't need to since she controlled the game Quote: I don't consider it good luck, just as I didn't consider the idol good luck for Terry or Gary. For one thing, the idol wasn't given, but found by the contestants. If Jonathan had been sharper, he could've gotten it before Yul. The good luck involved was Yul being sent to Exile 2nd. But having the idol itself is not lucky in my opinon, just as an individual winning individual immunity is not lucky. Also, people KNEW that an immunity idol existed and had multiple opportunities to wrestle it away from Yul but didn't. They had control over their destinies. So while the idol is certainly an advantage, I don't consider it "luck" Quote: I actually did consider this. I meant the CI cast was intelligent as a whole--from the moderate level players like Jenny and even Cao Boi to the strategists like Candice. I do think Ozzy and Sundra were the less cerebral of the cast. However, they didn't force the idol out at F5, because of their Aitu bond which shouldn't be understimated. I covered that good luck under "Mutiny". It's also partly skill, because Yul cultivated such strong bonds with both of them And you can't be serious about Borneo. Borneo had like 5-6 "players" tops, because everyone else never even thought of an alliance. I don't fault them, because it's the 1st season, but the worst people from Cook Islands would crush Borneo (from back then, not the current Borneo crew) Quote: I considered giving him a B. I gave him an A, because he said he sandbagged challenges in interviews and the fact the every tribe he was on dominated in challenges makes me think he really was a force. But I could see either way Quote: I completely agree. As I said in my post, the #2 most important factor is the ability to manage the luck that comes your way--good and bad. I'm not penalizing people for having good luck, but I am acknowledging it exists Quote: Actually, I didn't. Analysis came first, then ranking. My list was much more normal before this haha. That's why it's all weird now. As a newbie, I never tried ranking the winners before. So, when that thread came up, I had a hard time figuring out who was actually best. Hence, my little mission (and thus this post). In my head though, I always thought the best winners were: Tina, Brian, Chris, and Yul. I have to say, I was likely biased by Sucks opinions. I thought the least best winners were: Hatch (because it was 1st), Jenna, and Danni. However, I knew it was non-fact based and largely influenced by other people's opinions, that's why I wanted to do a stricter analysis of the game and re-watch all the seasons over again |
||
|
Pineapple 81 |
Re: RE: | ||
|
Posts: 37 (04/04/07 4:51 PM) Registered user |
She wanted Burton, no doubt.
|
||
|
Dr Will Hatch two point oh |
Re: RE: | ||
|
Posts: 9865 (04/04/07 6:42 PM) Registered user |
you know whats funny? Richard hatch imo had a VERY similar game in ass to Wills game in bb:as. It was to be used as a placeholder while whoevers in power gets rid of threats and goats, because Hatch(Will) didnt have any power in the beginning anyways. The difference was, Will was stuck with players who(at least attempted) to think logically, and Richard was stuck with sheep who cant get past the brainwashing "we have to get rid of the winners" mantra. If Lex wasn't incompetent, he would of realized keeping Rich(colby, and ethan) keeps the target off his back in a merge. It was stupid to stay so loyal to Kathy, and thats what did Rich in. On bb:as, wed be praising richs name, or on any other season where ppl didnt know who he was
|
||
|
Quiddity |
Re: Winner Analysis | ||
|
Posts: 6779 (04/04/07 7:05 PM) Registered User |
Great post RavuRules, even if I do disagree on some major points I respect the fact that you have such a comprehensive analysis.
My biggest disagreement with you is ranking Yul number one overall. Like I've argued many times in this forum, Yul had a completely unfair advantage that only one other player in the game's history and no other winner in the game's history had, the hidden immunity idol. An idol he won not because of great strategic play, not because of challenge victories, he got it because he was lucky enough to be sent to Exile Island the second episode of the season. Yul doesn't have the idol, he comes in ninth place, its as simple as that. As smart as the guy was, he was gonna come in ninth place without that lucky break. And in all other seasons but one, the broken HII does not exist and he doesn't have that ridiculous advantage. As others have mentioned, ranking him as an A in challenges when he didn't win a single individual challenge (the same grade as Tom, who won 5) is rather ridiculous. Ozzy completely dominated him and everyone else. Ozzy deserves the A. No one else in that entire season does. And Yul's only strategic threat was Jonathan, a guy who was never gonna win the jury vote. Saying Candice and Parvati were strategic threats makes no sense to me as these were two of the four people who knew that C, A & J didn't have the immunity idol, but refused to believe that Yul, the sole guy left in the game who had been to Exile Island didn't have it. One of the stupidest decisions in game history. And any notion that Candice is a good strategic player went out the window when she switched tribes to get it on with Adam. Quote: Amber staying at F10 in ASS had absolutely nothing to do with her. It had entirely to do with Lex and Kathy thinking they had an alliance with Boston Rob that was formed from outside of the game, and Rob implying to Lex at the immunity challenge that he'd help him out if he kept Amber. If those two things didn't occur, Amber's gone, no matter how much fake pleading she did. Amber did nothing great 'socially' in her season (which you gave her an A for). She was slighly better socially than Boston rob. Who played arguably the worst social game ever. Thats not deserving of an A. Quote: Comparing Survivor All Stars to Big Brother All Stars isn't a valid comparison though due to the differences in the game format. In Big Brother, all Will had to do was convince a single person - the head of household to keep him safe, either by not putting him up for nomination, or by putting up a bigger target like Jace instead. And in many weeks where Boogie won HOH there was nothing he had to do, in Survivor that doesn't have the HOH format he wouldn't have all that protection. In Survivor you have to convince the majority to keep you around. To stick around Rich had to convince at least 3 other people to be on his side, Will only needed to convince one each week. Quote: Good point. Anyone who denies that their looks were a factor in Jenna and Amber's wins are lying. Jenna often had the target off her back because she was attractive (for example the guys targetting the deaf girl at the merge, the one girl they should have been trying to get on their side, instead of the two hot girls Jenna and Heidi). And if Amber looks like Debb Eaton, she never has an alliance with Boston Rob, and never wins ASS. And while on the subject of Jenna... Quote: I would actually say it was the opposite, she had some extremely weak competition. Amazon has IMHO the stupidest cast in the history of the show. A large number percentage of the cast had no strategic game whatsoever (Matt, Butch, Christy), thought way too highly of themselves (Roger, Heidi), or made ridiculously stupid decisions that cost themselves the game (Dave, Deena, Alex, Christy). |
||
|
TheMysteryMan2004 |
Winner Analysis | ||
|
Posts: 187 (04/04/07 7:13 PM) Registered User |
Quote: Not to mention Dave choosing to keep Heidi after the switch for the "strategically sound" reason of "keeping Heidi and Jenna's alliance intact for the merge" which I thought was just as stupid as Lex's big blunder. |
||
|
Dr Will Hatch two point oh |
Re: Winner Analysis | ||
|
Posts: 9865 (04/04/07 7:15 PM) Registered user |
^true, but the jury rewarded jenna for her superior game
|
||
|
Unregistered(d) |
RE: | ||
|
Posts: 0 (04/04/07 7:16 PM) |
Quote: Perfectly said. Quote: Perfectly said. And back to All-Stars; those pre-game interviews tell the whole story. The majority of the players knew that Hatch and Rob C. were the two biggest strategic threats going into the game and when you review how the season turned out, the fact that Big Tom was the ONLY player who made it VERY far both times he played is important. The pattern tells the whole story. Do you think that ANYONE thought Amber was a threat to win the game? People were SUPRISED that she was even casted on All-Stars! Quote: I disagree with you there. I thought AMAZON had a lot of good players. |
||
|
Quiddity |
Re: Winner Analysis | ||
|
Posts: 6779 (04/04/07 7:19 PM) Registered User |
Indeed. One reason why I don't buy the "tough competition" statement for Amazon. Dave had all the power in the world after the switch and threw it all away because Heidi was hot.
Quote: Yes, over arguably the most clueless final 2 player in game history. Facing a jury that acted more like a high school clique than any other in game history. She deserved to slaughter Matt in the final vote, but you gotta admit that Rob did all the work getting Matt that far and Jenna won solely due to winning the final 2 immunities. Quote: Explain to me why then. Outside of yourself Cesternino, Amazon had a very mediocre cast from a strategic standpoint (they were certainly very entertaining). Just looking at the post merge players: Jenna - Outside of Amber, the worst winner ever IMHO. I've pointed out her flaws many times, won't do it again unless requested. Matt - Most clueless F2 person ever? Probably. Butch - Strategically clueless. Had no strategy whatsoever. With the whole 'chain' thing with Matt and Rob, he may be even stupider strategically than Matt. Heidi - I don't think anyone in Survivor history has thought more highly of themselves when in actuality they were so mediocre than Heidi. Christy - No strategy whatsoever. After being in danger early on due to her deafness, flew under the radar for quite a while. And completely blew up her game when she had a lot of power at F6. Alex - Made one of the stupidest moves ever when telling Rob he was voting him out at 4. Deena - Like Alex needlessly got herself voted out. Dave - Have already discussed his stupidity. Roger - Like Heidi though he was soooo great.... when in actuality everyone wanted to get rid of him. Most obvious merge boot ever. |
||
|
Pulau Tiga |
Re: RE: | ||
|
Posts: 5761 (04/04/07 7:41 PM) Registered user |
Quote:Luck is out of a winner's control. You cannot penalize any player for having good luck. You can penalize a player for needing a lucky break in order to improve their game position, but that's about it. The arguments that Tina is not a great winner, for example, because Mike fell in the fire are ridiculous. Yes, she got lucky there, but we can't hold that against her. That was out of her control (and she probably would have had a good shot after the merge even if Kucha controlled it anyway). Quote:It showed how they handled a game that they knew they likely could not win and that was inherently different from what Suvivor has come to be. ASS was not Survivor on many levels. It included some elements of the game, yes, but the most influential elements (social, psychological, etc.) were the ones that were completely different from what they were meant to be in Survivor. You can't hold a player's viewer reputation from their original season against them, and that's exactly what you do when you factor in ASS. Quote:Dr. Will demonstrated that in a different type of game, where things are entirely individual and a strategy like his could actually work, a winner can make it very deep if he has someone with an indebted loyalty to him. BBAS was not ASS in any way, shape, or form. They were entirely different games with entirely different set-ups. Quote:Any twist contributes to the "luck factor," new or old. Quote:Many of these elements you attribute to these two categories, you have each sharing. A and B under outplaying, for example, are equivalent to A in outwitting. E, F, and G under outplaying are very similar to C, D, and E in outwitting. Just sayin'. Quote:I disagree. Our casts have become less and less game savvy as time has progressed, and we've gotten more and more players who are going into things blind, almost in a Borneo sense. In the middle seasons, we didn't see that because most of the cast were fans of the game and had extensive knowledge of the show. Quote:We have absolutely no idea how Brian, Tina, Hatch, or Ethan would fare in a newer season, and we can't hold that fact against them. All we saw them do was employ a successful strategy in an early season with an early game cast. For all we know, they'd do even better in a later season with a later game cast. ASS is not an example of this, it's an example of an entirely different game in which these players had inherent factors working against them and different agendas than any other cast has ever had (all of which warped the game to the point where things weren't played like Survivor). Quote:So they're better winners because they lucked into having a large cast to compete against. Sounds great. Quote:So what? Yul beat out 19 competitors at different stages, just like Tom did. What does the format of the game have to do with that? Tom beat his threats earlier in the game, Yul beat them later on. Quote:Richard would have been a provider no matter what season he was in. He's had extensive widlerness survival experiences that few players have had. Quote:Everone's had naive opponents. Flicka was just as clueless, if not more so, than Gretchen. Quote:Sean was also kept like he was (and the post-merge was played like it was) because the Tagi 4 could count on that particular strategy. It's not good luck to say someone's strategy helped a particular winner's. The reason that person's strategy helped the winner is because the winner had a certain strategy as well. Change the winner's strategy, and there's no "luck" involved, which means it's really not luck at all. Quote:Yes. Dirk and Rudy were immediate enemies to overcome due to his homosexuality. Quote:Um, what about Kelly's immunity streak? That was Richard's biggest string of bad luck in the game. And what about a female alliance being formed right from the beginning due to Stacy's game plan? Sounds like something pretty much out of Rich's control to me. Quote:He knew Sean was clueless, and he used that. There was no "almost" in Episode 9. Quote:Good Final 3 positioning is essential in this game, probably the most crucial element of it. If your win depends on a single final challenge outcome, you did something wrong (unless that challenge outcome is easy to predict, like in Thailand). Quote:Because he knew he couldn't. Rich absolutely did not care about ASS. Just watch him. Sure, he wanted to play, but he was determined to do it in the most laid-back way possible. He was not aiming for the win as much as a vacation in Panama. Quote:Rich is a damn good swimmer, and since a D is the lowest grade I think you give any winner on anything, I think Rich deserves better. He's very likely a stronger challenge competitor than most of the female winners. Quote:Isn't that bad luck? It forced Tina to wait to play the "Good Guys" card, which was her strongest card to play. Quote:The hierarchy was pretty obvious on Ogakor. Tina had been working Keith since the beginning, and Maralyn as well, just in case she had to mix things up earlier than expected. Tina wasn't an idiot, and she knew Mitchell/Jerri/Colby made up the top 3 positions. That's why she waited and then did exactly what she had to in order to crumble that top 3. Quote:  I knew it would eventually get to arguments like this. Tina played Colby completely. Colby knew what he was doing, but he was manipulated, just like most of the cast was. Tina took advantage of the mindset and used it against people like Colby. Colby had a decent game plan laid out, and ultimately Tina bested him. Quote:Tina knew someone of Jerri/Mitchell/Amber would have previous votes cast against them. That was inevitable with the Kel and Maralyn boots. She didn't get lucky that that happened, she knew it would and took advantage of it. It meant nothing until she used it for her own benefit. Quote:Good luck or good social play? Take any cast this game has season, and you can find a group of players Tina would have been able to manipulate like she manipulated Rodger and Elisabeth. It's not like those two were some Australian anomoly. Those are just the kinds of people you expect to find in the game, and Tina used them. Quote:Two of Ogakor's alpha males were cast as socially poor players. That gave Kucha an immediate advantage, where Mike, Jeff, and Nick all had much more going for them than Kel or Keith. Quote:But that's because Tina organized that. Tina made sure she had Colby's vote when Jerri was booted. That ensured Tina Jerri's vote. Quote:Or her reputation preceeded her, and she knew it would. I honestly can't say that Tina, Jenna, or Rich were even trying all that much in ASS, and I think Ethan was just going day-by-day. All of them knew there wasn't a chance in hell they would win. Hey, even non-winners like Colby recognized the nature of the game and didn't bother trying to change it. That doesn't mean they're bad players, it means they weren't all that interested in fighting a losing battle in an entirely different type of game than they one they had done well at before. Quote:Because she didn't bother to try to think of some genius way to change the entire mind set of the cast and get them to think winners deserved another shot? Yeah, damn her for not pulling off that impossible task. Quote:It proved that when she's playing Survivor, she does well, and when she's playing a different kind of game where she's immediately a huge target and everyone has seen the aspects of her best type of game, she doesn't really try to pull anything off. More tomorrow. LOST is on soon. Let's just say that I disagree with quite a bit that has been said in your post, RavuRules. |
||
|
Dr Will Hatch two point oh |
Re: Winner Analysis | ||
|
Posts: 9865 (04/04/07 7:42 PM) Registered user |
Iagree with you on all the points above. Rob though, gave all his power away to matt after booting Alex. Some ppl think Rob loses all the time because he overthinks. He doesnt(kaysar from bb is an example of an overthinker, but not rob). Rob loses because hes nervous and easily intimidated.
|
||
|
Quiddity |
Re: Winner Analysis | ||
|
Posts: 6779 (04/04/07 7:45 PM) Registered User |
Rob lost because he made himself a huge target. By jumping sides so much, being so much in control of the vote, he virtually guaranteed that he'd have to win the final challenge. Even if Jenna loses F4 immunity and gets voted out, I can certainly see Matt taking Butch to the finals and vice versa if they won the final challenge. Like Palau Tiga was talking about, a strong final 3 positioning is crucial. What was a big reason for why Rich and Tina were such great players? Because they both put themselves in a position where they'd be in F2 no matter what. Rob put himself in the opposite position with the entire F4, no one would bring him to F2.
Of course he'd suffer the same fate in ASS, just much sooner. |
||
|
Dr Will Hatch two point oh |
Re: Winner Analysis | ||
|
Posts: 9865 (04/04/07 7:50 PM) Registered user |
yeah, because he gets intimidated.If he focused less on backstabbing and more on tactics, he wouldnt have to be scared. during the pearl islands season, everyone here said jon was a poor mans ceternino, a great liar but not a brilliant tactician. I think its the other way around. Rob is a survivor geek and was so excited to try out all these moves he thought out, even if they wernt in his best interest
|
||
|
Unregistered(d) |
RE: | ||
|
Posts: 0 (04/04/07 7:54 PM) |
Quote: Here is why: Jenna was a GREAT player...very under-rated in my opinion. Matt- I felt he became a good player towards the end, but his jury performance was really bad. Butch- I thought Butch was a good player; he was in a good position at the merge when the men outnumbered the women and Matt/Alex/Rob told him the men would stick together. If they did, Butch would have made F4. Butch also had a great work-ethic and was a very honest player. Heidi- Don't have too much to say about her...but her "mastermind" speech at Tribal Council was one of the funniest things ever. Christy- I agree...TERRIBLE player. Alex- Yes, telling Rob he was gone at F4 was dumb...but he would have made F3 if he DIDN'T tell him this and if he stuck with the guys at the merge, he would have been in the F4. Deena- I thought she was a REALLY good player...but her plan to boot Alex backfired. |
||
|
Quiddity |
Re: Winner Analysis | ||
|
Posts: 6779 (04/04/07 7:55 PM) Registered User |
Indeed. Ironically the one move he made as he said himself, to make things a lot easier, booting Christy at F6 completely backfired on him because it kept Jenna in at F4 and she won the last two immunities. And it again made him yet a bigger target because it was another move he could take all the credit for. Unlike many I don't hold it against him, we all have the benefit of hindsight which he didn't have. Unfortunately for Rob, and other dominant players of Survivor, making all sorts of great strategic moves out in the open like that spell big trouble for you by the end game because no one wants to face you. Which is why a player like an Amber who does nothing the entire game has a huge advantage in such situations! :P
|
||
|
Quiddity |
Re: Winner Analysis | ||
|
Posts: 6779 (04/04/07 8:02 PM) Registered User |
Cesternino, much of what you said isn't an explanation though. Its just stating your opinion.
Quote: Then explain why. She won for one reason and one reason only, winning the final 2 immunity challenges. She was a great individual challenge performer, winning four challenges, but strategically she wasn't great, and socially she wasn't great, just better than one of the most socially inept people in game history. Quote: Explain how. He was completely clueless. He made one good move in throwing the final challenge, but that really was irrelevent because he couldn't beat either of the other two left. Quote: No, he wasn't in a good position at the merge, he was outnumbered 7-3, and like Roger and Dave stupidly alienated Christy by voting for her when they should have done the exact opposite and tried to get her on their side. As I've said before, the 'chain' thing where Rob spoonfed idiot Matt on survivor strategy and Matt then turned around and spoonfed Butch is arguably the one of the funniest things I've ever seen on Survivor. Quote: He did have a great work ethic but that wasn't gonna win him the game. And honesty isn't a trait you need in Survivor. Quote: Indeed. That doesn't make her a good player :P Christy- I agree...TERRIBLE player. Quote: Thats all hypothetical. The fact is, he made one of the stupidest statements in game history and got immediately voted out for it. Horrible player. Quote: Again, the fact that she wanted to boot a member of her own alliance over Matt, Butch or Christy, the fact that she set it up such that Matt would win immunity at that very TC shows that she isn't that great a player. Like Alex appeared to be good, but then completely blew up her game. Bad player. |
||
|
Unregistered(d) |
RE: | ||
|
Posts: 0 (04/05/07 12:45 AM) |
Quiddity,
Quote: First of all, she played a very solid strategic game. She got herself in a majority alliance at the beginning of the game with Deena, Heidi, and Shawna. She was aware of EVERY boot except for Alex and she was never in trouble until Alex was voted out. Socially, she was great. She formed very strong friendships with Shawna, Matt, Heidi, Alex, Dave, Deena, and Rob C. For the record, I DID NOT like Jenna during the game. I wanted either Matt or Rob to win. I thought her behavior was reckless at times... Quote: Dave agrees with you 100% on that...lol. He said the exact same thing in an interview after the season ended. I wish Matt revealed his strategy to the jury; how he threw 3 challenges, how he went from knowing nothing to being in charge, why he acted "crazy," etc. Quote: Well yes, in hindsight, he was in trouble at the merge...but only because Matt/Alex/Rob had turned against the mens alliance. They told Butch/Dave/Roger that the men were going to stick together. Quote: Again, yes, it was a dumb move. But it was just a friend being honest with a friend. The guy was in a great position at the men's tribe, but also at the merge. He was with Dave/Roger/Butch at the beginning of the game, and then he switched to Deena/Heidi/Jenna/Rob at the merge. He was set to make F3 until he opened his mouth. Quote: She wanted Alex gone because he was going to be an Immunity threat...she said they needed to get rid of him "If Matt wins Immunity." She said, "We don't have a chance if Alex is in the game." But yes, it did backfire. Hope you enjoyed reading this! |
||
|
Unregistered(d) |
RE: | ||
|
Posts: 0 (04/05/07 2:48 AM) |
And going back to my point about All-Stars...the thing with All-Stars is that EVERYONE knew who the biggest strategic threats were based on the way they played the first time.
When you play with strangers, it's hard to know which players are threats at the beginning of the game because nobody has seen them play before. Physically, everyone can tell who's a threat just by looking at their body... But going into All-Stars, EVERYONE knew from Day 1 who the biggest strategic threats were and it was easy to target them because they were the known threats. |
||
